LMAX Digital volumes were a little lighter in a thin summer Monday session. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $346 million, 13% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $211 million on Monday, 6% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $92 million, 17% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,853 and average position size for ether at $3,496.

Market volatility has been on the rise since bottoming in late June-early July, now back to about halfway between yearly high and low levels. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $3,115 and $190 respectively.

We’re off to a quiet start to the week in some exceptionally thin summer trading conditions. Overall, bitcoin and ETH are holding up well after recovering from last week’s global markets panic selloff.

Crypto assets have been encouraged by the return of ETF inflows after a multi-session run of outflows, while also finding some comfort in the notable uptick in the total stablecoin market cap of $1.6 billion over the past week.

As we consider potential volatility in the sessions ahead, we believe a lot could hinge on the economic calendar and geopolitical risk.

Later today, we get the first batch of inflation data out of the US in the form of producer prices, which will then be followed up by the more heavily watched consumer prices on Wednesday.

Should the data come in on the sticky side, it could derail investor hopes for more rate cuts than less in 2024, which would force yield differentials back to the US Dollar and invite some downside pressure on crypto assets.

If on the other hand that data comes in on the softer side, yield differentials will likely move out of the Buck’s favor and support a surge in demand for crypto assets.

Of course, the other big risk at the moment is how things play out in the Middle East. The world is hoping cooler heads will prevail and Iran will refrain from an attack on Israel.

As far as the impact on crypto goes, an escalation in geopolitical tension would likely weigh on crypto assets, though it’s worth noting that given bitcoin’s properties as a store of value asset, bitcoin would outperform relative to ETH in such a circumstance.