Total notional volume at LMAX Digital has been trending higher in recent weeks. Total notional volume from last Monday through Friday came in at $3.1 billion, 15% higher than the week earlier.

Breaking it down per coin, Bitcoin volume came in at $1.7 billion in the previous week, up 9% from a week earlier. Ether volume came in at $1.14 billion, up 28% from the week earlier.

Total notional volume over the past 30 days comes in at $13.7 billion.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,455 and average position size for ether at $3,107.

Volatility is still struggling to show signs of picking back up. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $975 and $115 respectively.

In our technical overview today, we highlighted the reality that bitcoin is still very much in a downtrend despite the recovery out from the yearly low. We also warned that should we see a breakdown below the current yearly low at around $17,600, it would open the door for a measured move downside extension that pinpoints a target of exactly $10,000.

Markets like to move in measured moves. Considering the distance between the yearly low and recovery high is $7,600, a break below the yearly low would then open a move equal in size to the downside, which would take us down to $10,000. We’re not saying this is necessarily going to happen, rather it is still a possibility on the cards. Right now, we really need to see a break back above $25,200 to take the pressure off the downside and significantly reduce the prospect for weakness down to $10,000.

Fundamentally, things aren’t looking pretty right now either. The global macro outlook has been deteriorating and there is plenty of stress out there. Investors had been hoping central banks wouldn’t need to be as aggressive with hawkish monetary policy, but this hasn’t been the case. Inflation has proven to be a major thorn and higher rates is the only solution to offset this risk – a risk central bankers now believe to be more distressing than anything else.

As things stand, there has definitely been a correlation between risk off and crypto performance. And what this means, is more downside pressure on stocks, is likely to open more downside pressure on crypto, which lends itself to the case for another big selloff that could open that test of bitcoin $10,000.

At the same time, we also believe in the value proposition of crypto assets and will be looking for a point in the not-so-distant future where the market finally wakes up to the fact that all of these distressing global macro fundamentals, are fundamentals that ultimately should be very supportive of an asset like bitcoin. When this happens, we believe there will be positive spillover to ether and other cryptocurrencies as well.