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FX & Crypto Insights – Institutional thought leadership

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31 March 2026
Waiting on the dust to settle into month-end
 
 
LMAX Digital performance
 
 

LMAX Digital volumes put in a solid performance on Monday. Total notional volume came in at $314 million, 20% above 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $165 million, 29% above 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $90 million, 13% above 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $5,546 and average position size for ether at $2,378.

Volatility remains subdued and continues to trend lower. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,706 and $108 respectively.

 
Latest industry news
 
 

Crypto markets have traded in familiar fashion over the past 24 hours, with price action confined to choppy consolidation as participants continue to search for a clear directional catalyst.

The broader tone reflects a market caught between lingering bearish pressure from the multi-month pullback and emerging medium-term demand from value-oriented buyers.

From a technical perspective, the market remains at an inflection point. Bitcoin needs to reclaim the $72k level to signal a potential shift in near-term momentum, with stronger resistance seen toward $76k, while ETH faces a similar hurdle at $2,200, followed by $2,400.

Failure to break higher keeps the risk tilted toward a continuation of the broader corrective phase, though the pace of downside has notably slowed, reinforcing the sense of consolidation rather than capitulation.

Sentiment indicators continue to highlight the fragile state of the market, with the crypto fear and greed index holding at depressed levels. This underscores the extent of the recent confidence shock, but from a contrarian standpoint, also suggests the balance of risks may be gradually skewing back toward the upside.

Longer-term participants appear increasingly comfortable accumulating on dips, less focused on precise timing and more on positioning for an eventual return to record highs.

Macro and cross-asset dynamics have also played a role in shaping the past day’s price action. A firmer tone in US equity futures and some stabilization in risk sentiment have helped prevent deeper downside in crypto, while softer oil prices and evolving geopolitical headlines around the Middle East have eased immediate inflation concerns at the margin.

At the same time, markets remain cautious ahead of key US labor market data, with rate expectations and dollar direction continuing to act as important external drivers for crypto.

Overall, the market remains in a holding pattern, with neither bulls nor bears able to assert control.

The near-term outlook hinges on a break of key technical levels alongside confirmation from macro catalysts, particularly US data and central bank expectations, which will likely determine whether crypto can transition from consolidation into renewed upside momentum or slip back toward recent lows.

It’s also worth noting that bitcoin is attempting to snap a string of 5 consecutive monthly declines, with a close above $67k sealing the first green monthly candle since September 2025 and inviting a wave of overdue optimism.

 
 
LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,706
ETHUSD
$108
Tweets Social media

@TheBlockCo
US Labor Department proposes opening 401(k) plans to crypto.

@BitcoinNews
The Ethereum Foundation is putting more of its treasury to work.

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