14 May 2024
Will US inflation reads inspire fresh demand?
LMAX Digital performance

LMAX Digital volumes got off to another light start this week. Total notional volume for Monday came in at $382 million, 21% below 30-day average volume.

Bitcoin volume printed $219 million on Monday, 26% below 30-day average volume. Ether volume came in at $89 million, 27% below 30-day average volume.

Looking at average position size over the past 30 days, we’re seeing average bitcoin position size at $8,717 and average position size for ether at $3,878.

Market volatility is off some 40% since peaking in March. We’re looking at average daily ranges in bitcoin and ether of $2,653 and $142 respectively.

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Market activity has been rather tame in recent days. We’re seeing tight, directionless price action accompanied by a lack of any meaningful, decisive fundamental catalysts.

What is known is already well known and priced, and what is yet to come isn’t clear enough to inspire any fresh directional bets.

Of course, the knowns are the bitcoin spot ETFs and the bitcoin halving event. The other knowns are the start to a shift towards renewed monetary policy easing from the major central banks.

But where we go from here is a bit of a mystery, at least in the short-term, and the market is waiting for something to inspire that next wave of volatility, which hopefully is accompanied by bullish price action.

Our technical insights are optimistic that whenever we do get going again in the days ahead, that next big push will be to the topside.

We’ve highlighted just how bullish the bitcoin chart has been and show the current pullback as a minor blip within a very healthy uptrend.

As far as what could get things going this week goes, we believe it’s possible we could see some activity on reaction to today and tomorrow’s US inflation reads.

Later today we get US producer prices, which sets the stage for the more highly anticipated Wednesday release of US CPI.

On balance, the outcome we believe will be more crypto supportive is an outcome which shows inflation data coming in on the softer side of expectation.

This would be both US Dollar bearish and risk positive, both of which are capable of fueling demand for crypto assets.

LMAX Digital metrics
Price performance
last 30 days avg. vs USD (%)
Total volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD volumes
last 30 days ($bn)
BTCUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
ETHUSD avg. trade size
last 30 days ($k)
Average daily range
BTCUSD
$2,653
ETHUSD
$142
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