Andy Harrison
Good morning,
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NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32344
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59143
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.801
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9098
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03319
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8172
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99096
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20398
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83161
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.571
Harry Hindsight
A slow move up for the Euro’s over the start of the session peaking above 1.3360 just before yields on Spanish bonds rose to a 1month high and unemployment figures increased for the 8th month. Euro’s slipped back as Spain came under scrutiny again with the new government placing the blame firmly at the door of the previous socialist government, Euro’s moved back touching 1.3304 after that news. It again slowly started to rise only for the FOMC news to hit, with indications that no additional asset buying is likely to occur, the market took it as a very good sign on the back of upbeat numbers we’ve seen over the past few weeks and USD became King for the day, Euro’s plummeted moving from 1.3340 to below 1.3220 in a very short period of time as USD ran riot. GBP had a steady day hovering around the 1.6030 throughout Asia and then quietly declining throughout the day moving steadily lower until the FOMC news thus dropping a further 40 tics, EURGBP dropped slightly and hovers above the 83.00 level. AUD moved down throughout the day having a quick drop during Asia the market was reluctant to buy into the weakness by the time the FOMC news came out AUD had already moved down through 1.0400 and was basing just above the 1.0350 level, FOMC saw it decline a further 50 tics quickly at that point and again puts the AUD on the back foot. USDJPY having looked weak in the early part of Asia recovered it’s losses over the course of the London period moving back up above 82.00 from its lows of 81.55, initially peaking at 82.40 in the early part of NYK however the FOMC news sent it moving strongly up towards 83.00 before finding resistance.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Mar
-0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11.30%
CNY    China Non-manufacturing PMI Mar        Â
58Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.3Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Labour Cash Earnings Y/Y FebÂ
0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.90%
AUD    Retail Sales M/M Feb  Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
AUD    RBA Rate Decision      Â
4.25%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.25%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.25%Â Â
GBP    PMI Construction Mar  Â
56.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 53.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 54.3Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M FebÂ
0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80%
EUR    Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb Â
3.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.70%Â Â
USD    Factory Orders Feb     Â
1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.00%Â
GBP    BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Mar            Â
1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20%Â Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 82.95-83.15 (light offers), 83.40-60 (2-way interest, light stop bias), 83.90-84.40 (staggered offers, medium)
Downside: 82.30-50 (light stops), 81.85-82.05 (light bids), 81.20-40 (medium bids)
EUR
Topside: 1.3250-70 (medium offers), 1.3285-1.3305 (light-medium stop buyers), 1.3380-1.3410 (light offers)
Downside: 1.3185-1.3205 (light bids), 1.3130-50 (light bids), 1.3070-1.3100 (medium stop sell zone)
EURJPY
Topside: 109.90-110.10 (light stop buyers), 110.70-90 (light stops)
Downside: 108.45-65 (light medium bids), 107.40-60 (light stops)AUD
Topside: 1.0345-65 (good 2-way, light offer bias), 1.0385-1.0405 (medium offers), 1.0420-40 (medium offers)
Downside: 1.0275-95 (group of light-medium stop sellers), 1.0230-50 (light stop sellers)
AUD:
Australia February Trade Deficit A$480M
Australian Services Sector Activity Choked By High A$
KRW:
North Korea Military Parade Moved To April 15 – Kyodo
CNY:
China’s Wen urges breakup of bank monopoly as growth slows
CNY: Pimco Official: Yuan Still In Early Stages Of Gains
NZD:
NZ government deficit worse than forecast in Feb – Treasury
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y MarÂ
1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20%Â Â
AUD    Trade Balance (AUD) Feb        Â
-0.48BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.67BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.97B
The movement continued into Asia with USD buying across the board for the most part while Euros’ declined to 1.3200 level giving ground steadily, AUD movement was more exaggerated as the trade balance for Feb declined and the previous number was revised even further into the red adding to the problems. Initially holding around the 1.0320 level the market slowly drifted taking out the bids slowly but never really stopping, moving briefly below 1.0270 towards Tokyo lunch during the period we had our first bounce moving back above 1.0270 but failing to move higher, once lunch was over a renewed round of USD buying moved into the market with both EUR and AUD moving lower with Euro’s moving down to test the 1.3180 level. If it hadn’t been for the FOMC the market would have been very quiet but with that news all the other currencies were on their back foot and struggling, today’s numbers are of some import especially the US employment figures are something to keep an eye on as if anything can upset the apple cart its employment in the US. Â
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
8:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
48.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 48.7Â Â Â Â Â
8:30     GBP    PMI Services Mar                    Â
53.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 53.8Â Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb           Â
-0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
10:00   EUR    German Factory Orders M/M Feb                     Â
1.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.70%Â
11:45   EUR    ECB Rate Decision                  Â
1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â
12:15   USD    ADP Employment Change Mar             Â
205KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 216KÂ Â Â Â
12:30   EUR    ECB Press Conference            Â
                      Â
14:00   USD    ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Mar            Â
56.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.3Â Â Â Â Â
14:30   USD    Crude Oil Inventories               Â
2.1MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.1M
Ranges as of 6am London time
Bid         Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.663Â Â 82.679Â Â 82.94Â Â Â Â 82.628
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31920 1.31936 1.324Â Â Â Â 1.31832
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 109.049 109.083 109.7Â Â Â Â 108.97
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02730 1.02740 1.0333Â Â 1.0263
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81630 0.81650 0.8196Â Â 0.8155
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99190 0.99210 0.9931Â Â 0.9908
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20374 1.20407 1.20499 1.20379
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91246 0.91266 0.9134Â Â 0.90942
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58840 1.58870 1.5914Â Â 1.5873
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.83045 0.83065 0.8325Â Â 0.8304
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25750 1.25780 1.2581Â Â 1.2545
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.79030 8.79350 8.794Â Â Â Â 8.7885
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.57000 7.57960 7.577Â Â Â Â 7.5695
                             Â
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
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