LMAX Exchange - unique vision for global FX

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31413

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â `Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58888

JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.458

CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91594

AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02703

NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81449

CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99617

EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20368

EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82708

EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.36

Harry Hindsight

With the chances of any monetary infusion declining in the US and continued low interest rates for the foreseeable future USD remains on the ascendency, Euro’s continued to decline after yesterday’s announcements add to which poor German factory orders and retail sales continuing to slide the Euro had nowhere to go from the Asian highs of 1.3235 area it always looked sick and although it held loosely to the 1.3200 level area through the London opening an hour later it started to move down with a Spanish auction only managing to sell â‚¬2.59B of a â‚¬3.5B sale with high yields across the auction, this wasn’t to change until after the NYK open when real money buyers managed to stop the slide below 1.3100, NYK for the most part remained quiet and the Euro could only manage to crawl back to 1.3140 before the close of the session. Interest rates in the Eurozone remained at the 1% mark with no change expected in the near term. Cable remained in a tight range1.5860/80 after declining slightly during Asia from 1.5890 level, from the NYK open it moved lower on a spike one suspects unsophisticated IMM players selling on the back of Euro before moving back to its original range for a quiet finish to the day. AUD continues it’s movements lower from the Asian highs just below 1.0340 it continued to drop at one point moving to below 1.0250 where it continued to bounce through the day before finishing just above the 1.0270 level. A bout of EURJPY selling in the early part of London as stop losses were triggered with the fall of Euro’s found investors willing to buy into the USDJPY weakness around the 82.20 mark, moving it slowly back up above 82.60 however, we ran out of steam in the NYK session and struggled to capitalise on the thin offers above that level, the Japanese retail market was also effected by the fall the $60 fall in the past 24hrs putting pressure on some margins, requiring liquidation of either the Gold position or other assets being closed to continue.

Friday’s premiership results

ActualÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ConsensusÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â RevisedÂ Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y MarÂ

1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20%Â Â

AUDÂ Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-0.48BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.12BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.67BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.97B

EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Mar FÂ Â Â

49.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 48.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 48.7Â Â Â Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â PMI Services MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

55.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 53.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 53.8Â Â Â Â Â

EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb

-0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10%

EURÂ Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.70%Â

EURÂ Â Â Â ECB Rate DecisionÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â

1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â ADP Employment Change MarÂ Â

209KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 205KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 216KÂ Â Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite MarÂ

56Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 56.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.3Â Â Â Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Crude Oil InventoriesÂ Â Â Â

9.0MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.1MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.1MÂ Â Â Â

For today

USDJPY
Topside : 82.50-83.00 (medium offers) 83.10-83.40 (light offers) 83.50-83.80 (light buy stops) 84.00-84.50 (decent offers)Â
Downside : 82.00-82.30 (medium sell stops) 81.50-81.80 (medium bids) 81.00-81.30 (medium bids) 80.70-81.00 (decent bids)Â

EURUSD
Topside : 1.3160-1.3190 (medium offers) 1.3200-1.3240 (mixed net, light buy stops) 1.3240-1.3270 (mixed net light offers)Â
Downside : 1.3070-1.3100 (decent sell stops) 1.3020-1.3050 (decent bids) 1.2950-1.3000 (medium sell stops)Â

EURJPY
Topside : 108.50-108.80 (light offers) 109.00-109.50 (medium buy stops)Â
Downside : 107.20-107.50 (light sell stops) 106.50-107.00 (light sell stops)Â AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0280-1.0310 (light offers) 1.0320-1.0350 (light offers) 1.0360-1.0390 (light buy stops)Â
Downside : 1.0200-1.0230 (light sell stops) 1.0150-1.0180 (light sell stops)Â

Comments from China about loosening of policy seemed to help support the risk currencies today, with Euro’s slowly moving higher from the NYK close however, with attractive stop losses close on the downside and no real option barriers seen until 1.2800 level the downside looks to be vulnerable, Euros managed to move to the 1.3150 level before seeing any resistance but with a long weekend looming any position taking is likely to be tempered. Cable managed to hold steady having seen GBP gain against a weakening Euro and finishing some 40 tics lower 82.70 over the day, the fact that Cable broke out of its channel seems not to deter buyers with the long weekend. AUD recovered some of its losses of yesterday but looked out of sorts with no real follow through with liquidity being less than normal. USDJPY failed to live up to expectations and drifted lower over the session with very little going on. EURCHF looks interesting as we slowly creep towards the line in the sand and one has to wonder how far the resolve of the Swiss will go.

JPY:

Japan Azumi: US Views Won’t Affect Japan’s Forex Policy

Japan Upper House Votes Down BOJ Policy Board Nominee Kono

Japan minister to ask for nuclear reactor restart -media

NZD:

NZ Superannuation CEO: New Zealand Dollar Significantly Overvalued

CNY:

China March HSBC services PMI at 53.3, firms upbeat

World Bank readies $100 mio for rural China-Xinhua

Today’s data

ConsensusÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ Â

07:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

224.9BÂ

07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â CPI M/M MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â

07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.90%Â

08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.40%Â

08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -3.80%Â

08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â

08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â

10:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60%Â Â

11:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â BoE Rate DecisionÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â

11:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase TargetÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

325BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 325BÂ Â Â Â

11:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

2.00%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Initial Jobless ClaimsÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

356KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 359KÂ Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Net Change in Employment MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

13.2KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -2.8KÂ Â Â

12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Unemployment Rate MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

7.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.40%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Building Permits M/M FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -12.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Ivey PMI MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

67Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 66.5Â Â Â Â Â

14:00Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.10%Â Â

14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Natural Gas StorageÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

35BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57BÂ Â Â Â Â

Ranges as of 6am London time

BidÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â OfferÂ Â Â Â Â HighÂ Â Â Â Â Â Low

USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 82.222Â Â 82.236Â Â 82.47Â Â Â Â 82.121

EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31511 1.31528 1.3159Â Â 1.3136

EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 108.131 108.163 108.403 108.04

AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02950 1.02960 1.0307Â Â 1.0254

NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81730 0.81750 0.8184Â Â 0.8146

USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99640 0.99660 0.9974Â Â 0.996

EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20331 1.20339 1.2038Â Â 1.20306

USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91480 0.91505 0.91639 0.9145

GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59010 1.59030 1.5909Â Â 1.589

EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82700 0.82715 0.82735 0.8265

USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25820 1.25840 1.2608Â Â 1.2575

EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.80500 8.81310 8.811Â Â Â Â 8.798

EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.56200 7.56700 7.5765Â Â 7.564

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. Â They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America or any other jurisdiction where trading in CFDs and/or FX is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.

LMAX Limited operates a multilateral trading facility. LMAX Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority (firm registration number 509778) and is a company registered in England and Wales (number 6505809). Our registered address is Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London, W11 4AN.

Regards

Andy Harrison

Night Risk Manager

Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594

[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com

LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding
your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you
fully understand the risks involved. The information in this email is not
directed at residents of the United States of America or any other
jurisdiction where trading in CFDs and/or FX is restricted or prohibited
by local laws or regulations.

The information in this email and any attachment is confidential and is
intended only for the named recipient(s). The email may not be disclosed
or used by any person other than the addressee, nor may it be copied in
any way. If you are not the intended recipient please notify the sender
immediately and delete any copies of this message. Any unauthorised
copying, disclosure or distribution of the material in this e-mail is
strictly forbidden. LMAX operates a multilateral trading facility. Authorised and regulated
by the Financial Services Authority (firm registration number 509778) and
is registered in England and Wales (number 06505809).
Our registered address is Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London, W11
4AN.

LMAX Group blog - FX industry thought leadership

Daily FX Rambles

LMAX Group blog - FX industry thought leadership

Sign up for Global FX Insights, the daily market commentary from LMAX Group