Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30817
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58646
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.688
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91844
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02491
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81355
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00433
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2015
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82459
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.547
Harry Hindsight
It would seem that only Asia was interested in buying Euro’s as importers were happy buying both USDJPY and EURJPY however, it was a short lived rally up to 1.3140 and then started to trade lower after Tokyo lunch and before US inventories data saved it had moved to 1.3060, Euro data was uninspiring German trade balance improved in Feb, but investor confidence held it down. US inventories increased by nearly twice the expected and that caused the market to again rally upwards, but even this move was against the flow and it fell back almost as quickly as it moved up, the fact that while inventories are leading indications it requires more than one month’s numbers to underline a trend, French data showed a slowdown in sentiment and factory output adding to Euros woes which took its time feeding through and adding weight. GBP fell quickly trading pretty much in line with the Euro with minor movements in the cross moving against cable during the Euro rally but dropping back to the 0.8240 level towards the end of the session. AUD continued its move lower again gravitating to the 1.0250 area which has been the support area over the past week, unlike previous moves this one was a slow steady move over the day and even the darling of the IMM buyers couldn’t resist the movement this time and the market moved from the 1.0350 highs down to settle towards the support area. USDJPY having seen the importers pushing the market higher one would have suspected exporters lining up but the word is that they have been waiting for it to get above the 82.50 level to set hedges however, we didn’t see the levels reached and even if I believe the buying was a poor effort jamming the market higher, from there with decent machine order figures the safe haven buyers of JPY renewed their selling of none carry trades. With this move though those that hold long carry trades are coming perilously close to being triggered.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
23:01Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance MarÂ
-10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -12%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -13%Â Â Â Â
01:30Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence MarÂ
3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
03:09   JPY     BoJ Rate Decision      Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â
05:45   CHF     Unemployment Rate Mar          Â
3.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.10%Â Â
06:00   EUR    German Trade Balance (EUR) Feb        Â
13.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 12.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 13.1BÂ Â Â
06:00Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Mar P
2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.40%
08:30   EUR    Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr         Â
-14.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -9.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -8.2Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Wholesale Inventories Feb       Â
0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 81.40-70 (light 2-way interest), 81.90-82.10 (good 2-way interest, light stop buy bias), 82.60-90 (light offers)
Downside: 80.40-60 (2-way interest, light stop sell bias), 80.10-30 (light stop sellers), 79-75-95 (light 2-way interest)Â
EUR
Topside: 1.3110-40 (good 2-way, light offer bias), 1.3150-70 (medium offering interest), 1.3180-1.3200 (light offers)
Downside: 1.3020-40 (medium stop sell zone), 1.2975-95 (light-medium stops), 1.2920-50 (series of medium stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 106.30-50 (light stop buyers), 106.60-80 (light stop buyers), 107.60-90 (medium stop buyers)
Downside: 105.25-45 (light stop sellers), 104.80-105.00 (good 2-way, light stop sell bias), 104.50-70 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0275-95 (light offers), 1.0330-50 (medium offers), 1.0400-20 (light offers)
Downside: 1.0220-40 (medium stop sellers), 1.0180-1.0200 (light-medium stop sellers)
JPY:
BOJ to mull additional easing at April 27 policy review -paper
Japan Fin Min Azumi: Won’t React Radically Vs. Every Move In FX Market
Japan machinery orders show surprise rise as capex recovers
Japan March bank loans up 0.8% YoY
AUD:
Australia consumers fret on finances in April-survey
Australian February Housing Finance -2.5% Vs. January
Australia’s Ex-RBA McKibbin Criticizes Govt Budget Surplus Target
KRW:
North Korea says fuel being injected into rocket
A reasonably quiet day with USD in retreat as fund buying helped Euro’s higher moving it from early lows of 1.3066 to a steady attempt towards 1.3100, but it was a steady climb. GBP as with the above cable moved from the 1.5850 level topping out below 1.5880 but limited in its movement EURGBP remained in the 82.40 area and very quiet. AUD took strength from support in AUDJPY just above stops moving from the 82.50 area back above 83.00 taking the AUD from 1.0238 area to an attempt towards 1.0300 but again a lack of interest held the market in check.
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
22:00Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
13Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0
23:01   GBP    BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Mar          Â
1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%
23:50   JPY     Machine Orders M/M Feb         Â
4.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.40%
0:30     AUD    Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr     Â
-1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.00%
Â
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
12:15   CAD    Housing Starts Mar                  Â
202.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 201.1K
12:30   USD    Import Price Index M/M Mar                 Â
0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%
14:30   USD    Crude Oil Inventories               Â
2.1MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9.0M
18:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Fed Beige Book
                                  Â
18:00   USD    Monthly Budget Statement Mar            Â
-$203.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid          Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.829Â Â 80.838Â Â 80.947Â Â 80.6
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30939 1.30948 1.3097Â Â 1.30665
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.837 105.856 105.96Â Â 105.448
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02850 1.02870 1.029Â Â Â Â 1.0226
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81680 0.81710 0.8177Â Â 0.814
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00290 1.00320 1.0053Â Â 1.003
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20140 1.20149 1.2017Â Â 1.20132
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91741 0.91759 0.9194Â Â 0.9175
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58770 1.58790 1.5881Â Â 1.5852
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82460 0.82480 0.82475 0.82425
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26000 1.26010 1.2634Â Â 1.26
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.91800 8.92000 8.9245Â Â 8.9044
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.59660 7.60300 7.605Â Â Â Â 7.595
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN
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