Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31085
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59065
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.862
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91736
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.02988
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81735
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00386
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20252
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82408
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.998
Harry Hindsight
A steady rise in the Euro during Asia was followed up with a move above 1.3140 on the back of a good auction in Italy with a cover of 1.6 however, any serious rally was tempered by the high yields no wonder the cover was decent for short dated. Once the NYK market settled in the market drifted back towards that 1.3100 level again with a seeming lack of interest for the day. Cable traded either side of 1.5900 for most of the session with a 50 point range for the most part helped by the Euro and improvement in the BRC number helping it to stay in touch but a lacklustre day. AUD early on looked to breaking down but ran into option players around the 1.0220 area from there it was all one way with carry trade buying doing the damage moving up to 1.0300 by the time London settled in it followed Euro’s for a move above 1.0320 but ran out of ideas into NYK settling down to range around the 1.0300 level. USDJPY it would seem were in no man’s land for the moment with Exporters waiting to the topside and importers down below and the usual rhetoric likely to appear below 80.00, we managed to hold above 80.60 early in the London session before moving above 80.80 where it held throughout the NYK session. Bland beige book commentary with very little to excite that we didn’t already know.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
NZDÂ Â Â Â NZIER Business Opinion Survey Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
13Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0
GBP    BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Mar          Â
1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%
JPY     Machine Orders M/M Feb         Â
4.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.40%
AUD    Westpac Consumer Confidence Apr     Â
-1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.00%
CAD    Housing Starts Mar      Â
216KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 202.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 201.1K
USD    Import Price Index M/M Mar     Â
1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%
USD    Crude Oil Inventories   Â
2.8MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.1MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 9.0M
USDÂ Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement MarÂ
-198.2B Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -$203.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 81.20-81.50 (medium buy stops) 81.70-82.00 (light offers) 82.10-82.40 (light buy stops) 82.50-83.00 (medium offers)
Downside : 80.50-80.80 (decent bids) 80.00-80.30 (mixed net net light bids) 79.50-80.00 (medium sell stops)Â
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3150-1.3180 (light offers) 1.3200-1.3230 (medium offers)Â
Downside : 1.3050-1.3100 (medium sell stops) 1.3000-1.3030 (decent sell stops) 1.2970-1.3000 (decent sell stops)Â
EURJPY
Topside : 106.30-106.60 (light offers) 106.70-107.00 (medium buy stops)Â
Downside : 105.70-106.00 (light sell stops) 105.00-105.50 (light sell stops) 104.70-105.00 (medium sell stops)AUDUSD
Topside : 1.0320-1.0350 (medium offers) 1.0360-1.0390 (medium buy stops) 1.0400-1.0430 (medium offers)
Downside : 1.0280-1.0300 (medium offers)Â
USDCAD: 1.0055 (heavy buy stops) 1.0090 Macro offers, possible option barrier.
AUD:
Strong Australia Jobs Data Ease Pressure On RBA
Sharp Rise In Australia Inflation Expectations Erodes Case For Rate Cut
Australia’s Finance Min Says Budget Surplus Gives RBA Room To Move
JPY:
BOJ Shirakawa: BOJ Will Pursue Powerful Monetary Easing
USD:
Fed’s easy policy appropriate right now Yellen
KRW:
N.Korea official says Thurs rocket launch unlikely -Kyodo
CNY:
China banks offer mortgage discounts for new buyers-report
China Economy Likely Grew 8.4%-8.5% In 1Q – Government Researcher
NZD:
New Zealand Manufacturing Activity Slows In March
NZ Adjusted March Total Retail Sales Card Transactions Up 0.3% On Month By Value
Euros looked mired with a starting couple of hours in the 1.3100/20 range until the AUD numbers, AUD dragged the Euro higher pushing up towards 1.3140 but again the impetus was lacking and couldn’t push any further on its own. Cable  stuck within a 30 tic range moving steadily upwards with USD forced lower by the movement in AUD. AUD the mover on the day, straight line move from 1.0303 to 1.0367 on the number with unemployment defying expectations to come in at 5.2% this should be tempered however, China figures tomorrow and in the RBA’s words it’s all about the CPI for rates. The market move eventually to 1.0380 level before finding resistance, while unable to penetrate the level, it’s not backed away from it but decent offers and take profits from the rally appearing. USDJPY had a steady day we saw some carry trades going through but for the moment we seem to be dead in the water and the market is not likely to open up on this big figure.
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
22:30   NZD    Business NZ Manufacturing Index Mar  Â
54.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.7Â Â Â Â Â
23:50   JPY     Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar   Â
3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.90%Â Â
23:50   JPY     Domestic CGPI Y/Y Mar          Â
0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â
1:00     AUD    Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr     Â
3.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.70%Â Â
1:30     AUD    Employment Change Mar         Â
44.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.5KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -15.4KÂ Â
1:30     AUD    Unemployment Rate Mar          Â
5.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.20%
Â
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
8:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â ECB Monthly Bulletin
                                              Â
8:30     GBP    Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Feb                     Â
-7.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.5BÂ Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb                      Â
-0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
12:30   CAD    New Housing Price Index M/M Feb                   Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â
12:30   CAD    International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Feb                   Â
2.2BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10BÂ Â Â
12:30   USD    Trade Balance Feb                  Â
-$52.0B Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -$52.6B
12:30   USD    PPI M/M Mar               Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â
12:30   USD    PPI Y/Y Mar                Â
3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.30%Â Â
12:30   USD    PPI Core M/M Mar                  Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
12:30   USD    PPI Core Y/Y Mar                    Â
2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 7)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
355KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 357KÂ Â Â Â
14:30   USD    Natural Gas Storage                            Â
42BÂ Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid          Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.905Â Â 80.915Â Â 81.07Â Â Â Â 80.83
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31341 1.31350 1.31399 1.3106
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.261 106.282 106.333 105.99
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03680 1.03710 1.0385Â Â 1.0295
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81920 0.81960 0.823Â Â Â Â 0.818
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00200 1.00210 1.0037Â Â 1.0018
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20270 1.20279 1.2035Â Â 1.2027
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91562 0.91575 0.91799 0.91537
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59240 1.59260 1.593Â Â Â Â 1.5913
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82465 0.82490 0.8249Â Â 0.8234
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25560 1.25580 1.2576Â Â 1.2555
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.91350 8.92080 8.922Â Â Â Â 8.914
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.62020 7.62400 7.627Â Â Â Â 7.6165
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN
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