Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31874
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59606
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91122
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.884
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04409
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82754
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9944
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2017
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8262
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.672
Harry Hindsight
Early trading was tempered by a poor Italian auction attracting 1.43 coverage but with only a 70% take up on the 3yr offer, so while investors don’t mind going for the short end the further out you go the less take up there seems to be. Eurozone production numbers lit up the market though with a better than expected number putting the Euro on a better footing it moved up steadily over the remaining part of the session moving from 1.3100 level to above 1.3200 at one stage before slipping below 1.3200 towards the close of NYK. GBP tracked the Euro with no numbers for the day there seemed to be a lack of interest in the old lady, moving from just above the 1.5920 area it ran its course to 1.5982 before drifting back on the close. AUD the rally from Asia was continued into the other two centres with inflation numbers being the focus a drop in unemployment everything looked rosy for the Oz moving from the 1.0300 area and trading up to 1.0440 area into the NYK session however, appetites seemed to be tempered above 1.0440 and it could not make any further headway for the last 5hrs of trading staying around that level till the close. USDJPY Â now seems to be stuck trading below 80.75 in the latter part of the session it struggled to make any headway and looks set to move into the tighter ranges we’ve seen earlier in the year.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
NZD      Business NZ Manufacturing Index Mar Â
54.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 57.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPY        Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Mar      Â
3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.90%Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Mar
0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â
AUD      Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr      Â
3.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.70%Â Â Â
AUD      Employment Change Mar          Â
44.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.5KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -15.4KÂ Â
AUD      Unemployment Rate Mar          Â
5.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.20%Â Â Â
GBP      Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Feb              Â
-8.8BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.5BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.9B
EUR       Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb           Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%
CAD      New Housing Price Index M/M Feb       Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â
CAD      International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Feb      Â
0.29BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.2BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10BÂ Â Â Â
USD      Trade Balance Feb         Â
-46BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -$52.0B Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -$52.6B
USD      PPI M/M Mar  Â
0%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â Â
USD      PPI Y/Y Mar      Â
2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.30%Â Â Â
USD      PPI Core M/M Mar        Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â
USD      PPI Core Y/Y Mar            Â
2.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (APR 7)Â Â Â Â Â Â
380KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 355KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 357KÂ Â Â Â Â
USD      Natural Gas Storage      Â
8BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 42BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 81.20-81.60 (marginal offers)Â
Downside : 80.50-80.75 (good staggered bids) 80.15-80.45 (medium sell stops)Â
EURUSD
Topside : 1.3205-1.3240 (decent staggered buy stops) 1.3245-1.3275 (good mixed bag)
Downside : 1.3120-1.3150 (medium bids) 1.3070-1.3100 (small sell stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 106.90-107.20 (light buy stops)AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0465-1.0495 (small staggered buy stops) 1.0500-1.0535 (medium offers)
Downside: 1.0350-1.0395 (light bids)
JPY/KRW:
Japan spokesman: N.Korea launch a provocation, jeopardised Japan
Japan says may consider economic sanctions on N.Korea
The highlight of the day was the expected numbers for China, IP figures were better than expected but the number everyone was waiting for was the GDP figure, which stirred up the market briefly when it hit worse than expected. Euro’s moved instantly away from the 1.3200 area it had been flirting with and dropped to the low 1.3170 level before stabilising, AUD was the more convincing mover dropping from the 1.0440 levels down into the 1.0380’s before finding some support, the China figure will have them thinking about the big picture when rate decision time comes round next week. Â The market largely ignored the N.KRW launch, they all sat waiting with surface to air missiles then found they had nothing to fire at when it failed just after launch (not the first time). USDJPY managed to move back above 81.00 after
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
2:00     CNY    Industrial Production Y/Y Mar   Â
11.90% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11.40% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11.40%
2:00Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Real GDP Y/Y Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.90%Â Â
2:00     CNY    Retail Sales Y/Y Mar    Â
15.20% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 15.10% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 14.70%
Â
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â Â
8:30       GBP      PPI Input M/M Mar                      Â
1.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â Â
8:30       GBP      PPI Input Y/Y Mar                          Â
4.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.30%Â Â Â
8:30       GBP      PPI Output M/M Mar                   Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â
8:30       GBP      PPI Output Y/Y Mar                       Â
3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.10%Â Â Â
8:30       GBP      PPI Output Core M/M Mar                        Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â
8:30       GBP      PPI Output Core Y/Y Mar                            Â
2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â Â
12:30    USD      CPI M/M Mar                  Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â Â
12:30    USD      CPI Y/Y Mar                      Â
2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.90%Â Â Â
12:30    USD      CPI Core M/M Mar                        Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â
12:30    USD      CPI Core Y/Y Mar                            Â
2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.20%Â Â Â
13:55Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Apr PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
76.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 76.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                              Bid          Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.020Â Â 81.028Â Â 81.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.86
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31677 1.31689 1.32015 1.31652
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.685 106.705 107.1Â Â Â Â 106.6
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03890 1.03900 1.0453Â Â 1.0383
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82910 0.82940 0.832Â Â Â Â 0.8275
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99550 0.99570 0.9965Â Â 0.9939
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20186 1.20196 1.20212 1.2014
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91257 0.91272 0.9131Â Â 0.9105
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.59430 1.59450 1.5969Â Â 1.5938
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82590 0.82605 0.82675 0.8258
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24880 1.24900 1.2524Â Â 1.246
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.89550 8.90690 8.9065Â Â 8.894
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.61000 7.61490 7.614Â Â Â Â 7.608
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