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Andy Harrison

Good morning,

Weekend news

CNY: China currency move ends risk of hard landing
CNY: China Doubling Yuan Band Signals Drive for Convertibility
AUD: Gillard Budget Surplus Bid Hit by Falling Australian Tax Income
USD: Retail Sales Probably Climbed in March: U.S. Economy Preview
USD/CHF: Swiss Banks to hand over staff names in US tax row
World: UN Monitors going to Syria Sunday, fighting rages
USD: Crisis Programs May Earn Long-Term Profit, U.S. Treasury Says
PHP: Philippines Will Assess Rate Cut Impact on Policy, Tetangco Says
EUR: Spanish Minister Asks ECB to Buy Bonds as Crisis Deepens
World: Iran Nuclear Talks Set Grounds for Diplomacy Short of Agreement
CHF: Swiss Bank Council Proposes Jordan as SNB President, NZZ Says
EUR: Moody’s looks at 114 European banks ratings for possible downgrades

NYK CLOSE and Syd Open

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CloseÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Bid/Offer

EURUSD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.30782 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3080/85
GBPUSD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.58475 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5850/60
USDJPY Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.902Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.85/95
AUDUSD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03724 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0380/85
NZDUSD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82335 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8230/40
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99943 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9990 givenÂ
EURCHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20236 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2015/30

EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82524Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8247/55

EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.816Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.75/92

Harry Hindsight

Euro’s steadily declined in Asia been taken lower by the Oz and the CNY data that was released, in line German figures did nothing to stop it from moving lower either as we moved towards the CPI figures in the US, these came out with the headline monthly figures better than expected giving a boost to the USD across the board, Euro’s found sellers across the board over the next 3hrs moving it to below 1.3100 the remainder of the session was a nothing session with the range staying within 10 tics on the wide bracketing the 1.3080 level. GBP faired a little better during Asia and the early European session with the CNY GDP numbers only of little import to GBP, the market traded for the most part 1.5940/60 dropping slightly on the headline monthly PPI numbers to below 1.5920 but recovering to above 1.5960 as investors took in the core figure, again the US data saw the USD rally moving the Cable down to 1.5840 support line where it continued to trade 40/60 for the balance of the US session. AUD had a bad day with the CNY figures putting paid to any ideas that the market had the previous day of interest rate hikes to ohhh dear, I’m always the first to point out that Japan is the AUD biggest market and with the rebuilding going on will remain so for a good time to come however, I can’t knock the fact that China is a close second and any slowdown will take the cream of the top of the exporters in Oz needless to say AUD moved from 1.0450 area down to the 1.0380 level during Asia and rather quickly for the most part, it continued to move steadily lower but was put under the cosh with all the other currencies against the USD moving down below the 1.0380 level and ranging between 1.0380/60 for the balance of the session. USDJPY the exception to the rule, holding up in Asia and not doing particularly well in the USD rally, it seems to have moved back to the tight ranges we’ve seen in the past with 80.80/81.20 on the wide but generally holding a 10 tic range around 81.00 before finding sellers on the close to take it back towards 80.80.

Yesterday’s premiership results

ActualÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â ConsensusÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â RevisedÂ Â

CNYÂ Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â

11.90% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11.40% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11.40%

CNYÂ Â Â Â Real GDP Y/Y Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

8.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.90%Â Â

CNYÂ Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â

15.20% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 15.10% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 14.70%

EURÂ Â Â Â German CPI M/M Mar F

0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â

EURÂ Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Mar FÂ

2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â PPI Input M/M MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%

GBPÂ Â Â Â PPI Input Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

5.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.80%

GBPÂ Â Â Â PPI Output M/M MarÂ Â Â Â Â

0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â PPI Output Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â

3.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.10%Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â PPI Output Core M/M MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â PPI Output Core Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.00%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â CPI M/M MarÂ Â Â Â

0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â CPI Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â

2.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.90%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â CPI Core M/M MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.20%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Apr PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

76.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 76.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 76.2Â Â Â Â Â

For today

JPY
Topside: 81.05-25 (light offers), 81.30-50 (medium stop buyers), 81.75-95 (light 2-way interest)
Downside: 80.50-70 (medium bids), 80.25-45 (medium stop sell zone), 80.00-20 (light 2-way interest)

EUR
Topside: 1.31.05-25 (light offers), 1.3130-50 (light-medium stop buyers), 1.3205-25 (medium stop buy zone)
Downside: 1.3010-30 (light bids), 1.2950-80 (medium stop sellers)

EURJPY
Topside: 106.30-50 (light stop buyers), 107.10-40 (light offers)
Downside: 105.30-50 (light bids), 104.90-105.10 (light stop sell zone)AUD
Topside: 1.0415-35 (good 2-way, medium stop bias), 1.0440-60 (light offers), 1.0475-95 (good 2-way interest)
Downside: 1.0320-40 (light stop sellers), 1.0200-50 (light bids)

A few news Items hit the markets the Moody’s was released on Friday but rehashed for the Asian markets however the one that spooked the market was the pleading tone of the Spanish minister, for the past few weeks Greece has been quiet and investors have slid into a false dawn, today could be the first of many wake calls and the Asian market has been quick to sell everything European from the opening, having opened pretty much where it closed it quickly got sold off and took out some of the weak stop losses 1.3030 level add to which talk in the market of a large 1.3000 barrier expiring today in NYK so that 1.3000 level looks attractive. Stop losses seem to abound below that level so it could be a very interesting day. GBP is holding up better than the Euro but in a quiet day its struggling around the 1.5820 level with no support level close at hand. The widening of the Yuan band to 1% to help fend off the pressure building from the US, again sent waves through the OZ market, from opening just below NYK close the OZ traded lower over the session before finding some support in front of the 1.0300 level for several hours it found itself contained in the 12/30 level with EUR/AUD selling probably the only reason it’s not slipped through. USDJPY continues to be side lined with the market sticking to the 80.80/81.00 band from Friday, taking no particular reading from any of the weekend news, as European worries continue to weight on the EURJPY cross.

CNY

China doubles its Yuan band to 1%

Today’s data

ConsensusÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â PreviousÂ Â

07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Combined PPI M/M MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80%Â Â

07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Combined PPI Y/Y MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

-1.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.90%Â

09:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

5.5BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.9BÂ Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

4.00BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.19BÂ Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing AprÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

18Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 20.21Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10%Â Â

12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos MarÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â

13:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

$40.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $101.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Business Inventories FebÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â

14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index AprÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

Ranges as of 6am London time

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â HighÂ Â Â Â Low

EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3092Â Â 1.30089

USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.00Â Â Â Â 80.60

EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.81Â Â 104.964

USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9243Â Â 0.91951

GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5862Â Â 1.5822

AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0387Â Â 1.0311

NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8254Â Â 0.8192

USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0003Â Â 0.9985

EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2031Â Â 1.2018

EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82465 0.8221

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Night Risk Manager

Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594

[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com

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