Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK CLOSE
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31413
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5901
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91459
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.401
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03558
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82072
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9993
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2019
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.82644
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.661
Harry Hindsight
Euro’s suffered during Asia, with the Moody’s news and Spain in focus it was punished however, on reflection both bits of news were about before the drop really started to escalate so you have to think that the option barrier was the target and having traded below 1.3000 twice early in the session,  was that game over, looking at the chart one has to think so as from there we struggled to move lower and stated recovering slowly, a mixed bag of US numbers saw the Euro’s starting to recover before squeezing the short term shorts out moving quickly above 1.3100 late in the NYK session on what looks like a thin market. Today and tomorrow we see more bond auctions this time out of Spain on 12 and 18mth bills, this should give us an idea of the markets willingness to get involved or not as the case may be. GBP had found support late in the Asian market struggling to push through the 1.5820 line once the low was set the market went sideways with no real news to worry about until the US figures which had USD on the back foot and Cable pushed back above 1.5900 in a surge through the NYK session. AUD struggled to recover last week’s losses and in front of the RBA minutes was not likely to do to much over the course of the day, moving between 1.0320/60 for the majority of the day. USDJPY the overall day was lower with a better range than I’d expected early selling in London met EURJPY buyers this lasted into the NYK session however, unlike other days when USD was willing to run higher and USDJPY was the exception when USD dropped USDJPY made new lows moving down to 80.30 for the day. At one stage it was EURJPY buying that kept the Euro’s away from the 1.3000 level but once the barrier was taken out and Euro’s had started bouncing EURJPY buying disappeared.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Combined PPI M/M Mar
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80%Â Â
07:15Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Combined PPI Y/Y MarÂ
-2.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.90%Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Feb      Â
3.7BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.5BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.9BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.3B
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) FebÂ
12.5BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.00BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -4.19BÂ Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Apr
6.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 18Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 20.21Â Â Â
12:30   USD    Advance Retail Sales Mar        Â
0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10%Â Â
12:30   USD    Retail Sales Less Autos Mar    Â
0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90%Â Â
13:00   USD    Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb   Â
$10.1BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $40.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â $101.0BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Business Inventories Feb         Â
0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â
14:00   USD    NAHB Housing Market Index Apr          Â
25Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 28Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 80.90-81.20 (medium offers), 81.40-60 (light 2-way interest), 81.70-90 (light stop buy zone)
Downside: 80.15-30 (good 2-way, medium stop bias), 79.95-80.10 (light bids), 79.70-90 (2-way, bias of light-medium stops), 79.40-60 (good 2-way interest, light bid bias)
EUR
Topside: 1.3170-90 (light 2-way interest), 1.3220-40 (good 2-way interest), 1.3250-80 (staggered light-medium offers)
Downside: 1.3080-1.3110 (staggered light bids), 1.3030-60 (very light bids), 1.2970-90 (medium stop sell zone)
EURJPY
Topside: 105.80-106.00 (light stops), 106.20-40 (light stops), 106.60-80 (light stops)
Downside: 104.50-70 (light stop sellers), 103.90-104.10 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0395-1.0425 (light offers), 1.0430-50 (light stop losses), 1.0470-1.0500 (mostly staggered light offers)
Downside: 1.0305-25 (light stops), 1.0280-1.0300 (medium-light bids)
CNY:
Mar FDI falls 6.1% from year earlier better than the expected -13% fall
Jan-Mar FDI -2.8% from a year ago
Jan-Mar Foreign direct investment $29.48B
JPY:
Azumi says “ Japan to provide $60B to IMF†in the hope of stimulating other countries to contribute
AUD:
RBA sees case for easing policy if inflation outlook moderates
China growth has slowed to more sustainable rate
World growth expected to be below trend in 2012
IMF:
Lagarde determined to do whatever is in our power to fight crisis
Lagarde hopes to boost IMF crisis funding by more than $400B
NZD:
PM Key called the NZD overvalued and also said “we’re considering what we can do to resist a rising exchange rate and the continuing weakness in European and US economiesâ€
Today’s release of the RBA minutes dominated trading, it seems to be balanced between domestic and overseas concerns, again they will be waiting for next week’s CPI prints to see if they need to cut at the moment it’s nip and tuck, the market took it as reason enough to sell off the AUD albeit by only 30 tics or so but it was the move of the day also Rio Tinto output. Euro’s weakened with the AUD but barely and a very tight range trading down from NYK close by touching 1.3105 having triggered some weak stop losses in the 15/20 range that had been a sticking point in late NYK, but the market slowed and began to drift higher with no real news to follow. GBP struggled to make any inroads above the 1.5900 level and drifted slowly down to the low 80’s before trading sideways in a quiet session for the pairing. USDJPY traded in a quiet market between 80.35/55 on the wide but found little to talk about.
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
04:30Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Feb FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
-1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.20%Â
05:00   JPY     Consumer Confidence Household Mar              Â
40Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 39.5Â Â Â Â Â
Â
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
08:30   GBP    CPI M/M Mar               Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â
08:30   GBP    CPI Y/Y Mar                Â
3.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.40%Â Â
08:30   GBP    Core CPI Y/Y Mar                    Â
2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.40%Â Â
08:30   GBP    RPI M/M Mar               Â
0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80%Â Â
08:30   GBP    RPI Y/Y Mar                Â
3.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.70%Â Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone CPI M/M Mar            Â
1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar             Â
2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Mar               Â
1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.50%Â Â
09:00   EUR    German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) Apr           Â
19.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 22.3Â Â Â Â Â
09:00   EUR    German ZEW (Current Situation) Apr                 Â
35Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 37.6Â Â Â Â Â
09:00   EUR    Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Apr                    Â
10.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 11Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30   CAD    Manufacturing Shipments M/M Feb                  Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.90%Â
12:30   USD    Housing Starts Mar                  Â
705KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 698KÂ Â Â Â
12:30   USD    Building Permits Mar               Â
715KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 717KÂ Â Â Â
13:00   CAD    BoC Rate Decision                  Â
1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â
13:15   USD    Industrial Production Mar                     Â
0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.00%Â Â
13:15   USD    Capacity Utilization Mar           Â
78.60% Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 78.70%
Ranges as of 6am London time
                                High    Low
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3145Â Â 1.31061
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.56Â Â Â Â 80.34
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 105.70Â Â 105.40
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9169Â Â 0.9147
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5905Â Â 1.5872
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0364Â Â 1.0315
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8203Â Â 0.8152
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0005Â Â 0.9993
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2021Â Â 1.2016
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8261Â Â 0.8255
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN
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