Andy Harrison
Good morning,
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NYK Close
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31228
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6022
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.252
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9159
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03569
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81592
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99126
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2020
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 106.624
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81902
                             Â
Harry Hindsight
Asia and Europe didn’t like the Euro but it started off slow and continued in the same vein throughout the session moving steadily down from the Asian highs above 1.3140 to move to the 1.3060 area before finding support, once NYK moved into the market risk takers appeared and the market moved back above the 1.3100 level over the next couple of hours before trading sideways over the course of the remaining few hours, not getting back to the previous highs. GBP was steady throughout the Asian session but early sellers appeared before the jobless numbers hedging for a worse number, when the number came out better than expected there was a rush for the door and all the weak shorts were squeezed out in quick fashion moving the market to just below the 1.6000 level initially finding resistance, once the NYK market opened it found new impetus and moved quickly up and held above the 1.6020 level for the remained of the session peaking at 1.6040 area. EURGBP also weakened moving from the 0.8240 down below 0.8192 for the first time this year. AUD having moved up during the early part of Asia on carry trade buying it started to run out of steam and drifted downwards by the time London arrived it was already making fresh lows for the day and the market jumped on the weakness and continued the selloff, only NYK turned the market and that was briefly before settling into a sideways market around the 1.0350 level and above the 1.0340 lows. USDJPY having moved up in Asia on carry trade buying the market trade sideways from then on a brief spike above 81.50 was the only notable move before it settled back to trade alone the 81.20/30 line for the remainder of the session.
Yesterday’s premiership results                                                                                                                            Â
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
00:30   AUD    Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb         Â
0.02%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â
08:00   EUR    Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb   Â
-1.3BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.3BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.5BÂ Â Â Â
08:30   GBP    BoE Minutes   Â
0—0—9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0—0—9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0—0—9Â Â
08:30   GBP    Jobless Claims Change Mar     Â
3.6KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.0KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.2KÂ Â Â Â
08:30   GBP    ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Feb        Â
8.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.40%Â Â
09:00Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â ZEW Survey (Expectations) Apr
2.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30   USD    Crude Oil Inventories   Â
3.9MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.8MÂ Â Â Â
Â
For Today
EUR
Topside 1.3180 (two way bias to offers) 1.3200-10 (buy stops med) 1.3220-50 (buy stops then Med sells)
Downside 1.3080-60 (weak sell stops) 1.3050 (light bids) 1.2990-1.3010 (light bids) 1.2980 (med sell stops|)
JPY
Topside 81.80 (light offers) 82.10-20 (light stops)
Downside 80.60-80 (Medium importer bids) 80.15-35 (good two way interest) 79.80 (small stops)
AUD
Topside 1.0420-40 (two way interest bias offers) 1.0445-65 (light offers) 1.0480 (light buy stops)
Downside 1.0320 (light bids) 1.0300 (med bids) 1.0240-20 (small sell stops)
JPY:
BoJ’s Shirakawa says
we are truly committed to continue powerful monetary easing
CB liquidity can play important role as seen in Europe but has only bought time
If CB crosses line into fiscal policy, that can ultimately undermine its independence if they cannot deliver public confidence in institutions will be eroded
EUR:Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Bank of Spain released data revealing that nonperforming loans as a proportion of total lending had jumped to 8.16% in Feb highest since 1994
IMF concluded that European banks could be forced to sell $3.8tn in assets through 2013 if governments do not enforce the measures promised to contain crisis
WSJ ran a story that the funds set up to manage the crisis are nearly exhausted. Market barely reacted and having read the article the first paragraph you get the same comments about yields and interest rates the wrong way round and glaring mistakes in the editorial.
KRW:
Sabre rattling by the North, with unidentified spokesman of the supreme command stating, military is prepared to wage war on the south
Euro’s still suffering from concerns over liquidity especially in light of today’s Spanish 10yr offerings, while no one is speaking out of turn we all expect the worst case scenario of poor coverage and coupons well above the norm. So saying that Euros has been in a tight range 1.3131/1.3111 on the wide moving between the two in the early part of the session but back end has seen sellers only keeping it towards those lows. GBP yesterday’s employment figures have the complex bid while Euro’s has moved in the 20 point range Cable has steadily moved up from the 1.6016 area to above 30 and drifted down into the 20’s with a seeming lack of interest from the market EURGBP drifted a little lower from the close about 10 tics but overall, it looks like the calm before the storm as everyone hangs back. AUD initially holding just above the 1.0350 level comments from an ex-PBoC adviser made comments about Australia being central to diversifying reserves and any move into Australia needed to be gradual, this sent the market quickly higher above the 1.0380 level before people re-read the article and picked up EX, and the market started to settle back towards that 1.0350 level into the back end of the market. USDJPY stayed in a roughly 25 tic range moving up for the fixing before slowly drifting back from the 81.54 highs into a 30/40 range with only carry trades showing significant interest. While a little better still a very quiet market overall.
Â
Â
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.80%Â Â
23:50   JPY     Trade Balance (JPY) Mar         Â
-0.62TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.43TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.31TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.32T
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q1Â Â Â
-1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Today’s data
 Consensus                          Previous Â
12:30   USD    Initial Jobless Claims               Â
366KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 380KÂ Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr AÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
-19Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19.1Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Philly Fed Survey Apr              Â
12Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 12.5Â Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Existing Home Sales Mar                     Â
4.61MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.59MÂ Â
14:00   USD    Leading Indicators Mar            Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â
14:30   USD    Natural Gas Storage                Â
10BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8B
Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
High      Low
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3132Â Â 1.31100
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.55Â Â Â Â 81.17
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.00Â Â 106.55
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91682 0.91559
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6035Â Â 1.6015
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0388Â Â 1.035
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8186Â Â 0.8153
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9913Â Â 0.9904
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2026Â Â 1.2018
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81905 0.8183
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
LMAX, Yellow Building, 1A Nicholas Road, London W11 4AN
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