Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Â
NYK CLOSE
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31374
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6053
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.588
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.91509
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03313
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81318
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99551
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20216
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81835
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.183 Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Harry Hindsight
The bond auctions today went OK in fact better than expected however this was the only good bit of news to effect the market (well for Spain maybe not the ECB) and Euros moved up from the 1.3120 area to spike above 1.3160 before starting to slip back again falling back below 1.3100 briefly moving below 1.3080 before US data arrived with a poor jobless and Philly Fed survey number setting off USD selling, Euro’s again rallied from the lows to trade in a 1.3120/40 range for the remainder of the session. GBP Â saw early EURGBP selling and GBP ran higher above the 1.6070 level before the Auctions finished and the EUR turned, at which point GBP hung in trading 40/60 for a period before EUR was sold off and dragged GBP with it, again the saving grace was the US figures. AUD had a quiet day holding steady around 1.0360/80 area having peaked around the 1.0390 area, Just prior to the US figures the AUD dipped lower and with nothing really to grasp continued to hold below 1.0340 even through the poor US numbers. USDJPY Stayed in a quiet range between 81.40/74 on the wide for the whole London/NYK session with very little to excite.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â
22:45Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â
1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.80%Â Â
23:50   JPY     Trade Balance (JPY) Mar         Â
-0.62TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.43TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.31TÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.32T
01:30Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Q1Â Â Â
-1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30   USD    Initial Jobless Claims   Â
386KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 366KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 380KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 388K
14:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr AÂ Â
-20Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19.1Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Philly Fed Survey Apr  Â
8.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 12Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 12.5Â Â Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Existing Home Sales Mar         Â
4.48MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.61MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 4.59MÂ Â
14:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Leading Indicators MarÂ
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â
14:30   USD    Natural Gas Storage    Â
25BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 10BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 81.75-90 (2-way interest, light offer bias), 82.05-30 (light-medium stops), 82.45-75 (light offers)
Downside: 81.10-30 (medium bids), 80.85-81.05 (light bids), 80.20-50 (staggered bids, light-medium)Â
EUR
Topside: 1.3150-70 (light stops), 1.3175-95 (light-medium offers), 1.3200-20 (staggered light offers)
Downside: 1.3060-90 (staggered light-medium bids), 1.3030-50 (light bids), 1.2990-1.3020 (stop sell zone, medium)
EURJPY
Topside: 107.50-70 (light offers), 107.85-108.05 (light offers)
Downside: Not much on the 106 handle below, till 105.90-106.10 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0380-1.0400 (light offers), 1.0415-35 (good 2-way, light stop buy bias), 1.0455-75 (light stops)
Downside: 1.0260-80 (light-medium bids), 1.0200-30 (light staggered bids)
We come to the end of another week in the exciting financial markets (or not) the week finishes with another quiet Asian session we saw Euro’s trade in just less than a 30 tic range for the most part as Asia meanders along waiting for a clear signal on the Euro, is the worst over we wait and see like the Asians. With Euro’s peaking at 1.3155 only to move back below 30 within an hour which looked like cross Yen buying for fixing demand. Cable stayed in a 20 tic band on the wide in a very quiet market 1.6040/60. AUD Initially traded north with carry trade buying but the market didn’t seem to like the import price index why wasn’t apparent and the market dropped back from 1.0340 level moving lower to the teens before finding some support and moving slowly higher towards the starting area. USDJPY range well 81.49/70 with nothing to surprise very quiet.
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
23:50Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M Feb
0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.60%
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Import Price Index Q/Q Q1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
-1.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%Â Â
Â
Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
8:30     GBP    Retail Sales Y/Y Mar                Â
1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â
8:30     GBP    Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel M/M Mar                    Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.80%Â
8:30     GBP    Retail Sales w/Auto Fuel Y/Y Mar                     Â
1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.00%Â Â
12:30   CAD    Leading Indicators M/M Mar                 Â
0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.60%Â Â
12:30   CAD    CPI M/M Mar               Â
0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â
12:30   CAD    CPI Y/Y Mar                Â
2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.60%Â Â
12:30   CAD    BoC CPI Core M/M Mar           Â
0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.40%Â Â
12:30   CAD    BoC CPI Core Y/Y Mar            Â
1.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.30%Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                                High    Low
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3165Â Â 1.31289
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.71Â Â Â Â 81.49
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.39Â Â 107.11
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9155Â Â 0.9131
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6068Â Â 1.6039
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0346Â Â 1.0309
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8148Â Â 0.8124
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9956Â Â 0.9944
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2024Â Â 1.2019
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81945 0.8182
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Regards
Andy Harrison
Night Risk Manager
Direct: +44 (0) 203 192 2594
[email protected] | https://www.lmax.com
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