Andy Harrison
Good morning,
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NYK CLOSE
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32168
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61632
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.345
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90921
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03529
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81349
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98339
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20172
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81772
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.513
Harry Hindsight
After a very quiet Asian session we moved into Europe with expectations of choppy day poor auctions the previous day left the market exposed to any news good or bad, as it was the market was contained to a wider range than Asia but it was contained, a good German auction was covered but only just and we wait to see what the Bundesbank kept back for the secondary market, last time it was rather excessive. Italy’s auction was ok with reasonable results.  Euro’s moved higher on the back of this moving back above 1.3200 peaking at 1.3236 before drifting lower before the US figures, a drop in durable goods had USD’s moving lower and then we reached decision time on US rates as expected it remained unchanged however, it was again reiterated that rates were likely to stay low into 2014 and USD’s started to rise and Euro’s moved back below 1.3200 from then it ranged around the 1.3200 level before putting in a late move higher, Euro’s moved up to 1.3232 in the closing couple of hours stabilising between 1.3210/20. GBP as with the rest of the market during Asia it was dullsville but a wake up call when the GDP figures came out with a surprise decline for the quarter leaving the year flat, Cable dropped immediately from the 1.6160’s to 1.6080 as talk of reasons drifted into the market we slowly regained the lost ground over the session before finishing the day above where the decline started topping out at the 1.6180 level. AUD after Asia a steady session with early gains taking us back to the 1.0330/40 level, late session saw the AUD move up to its highs of 1.0360 into the close questions about QE in the US raised its head again, but given the data flowing from the US one has to wonder who or why the questions continue to rise. USDJPY seemed to be the only pairing with some resilience to the movements to market movements and having been in decline during the latter part of Asia found buyers during both London and NYK moving it up to 81.60 before QE questions and rumour arouse again.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised  Â
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 A
-0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30%Â
08:30Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q1 AÂ
0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â
08:30   GBP    Index of Services M/M Feb      Â
-0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%Â Â
08:30   GBP    Index of Services 3M/3M Feb  Â
0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20%
10:00   GBP    CBI Trends Total Orders Apr    Â
-8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30   USD    Durable Goods Orders Mar      Â
-4.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.20%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Mar
-1.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.60%Â Â
14:30   USD    Crude Oil Inventories   Â
4.0MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.7MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.9MÂ Â Â Â
16:30   USD    FOMC Rate Decision   Â
0.25%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.25%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.25%Â Â
21:00   NZD    RBNZ Rate Decision                Â
2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%Â Â Â
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For today
JPY
Topside: 81.60-80 (light-medium offers), 81.80-82.00 (light stop zone), 82.10-30 (medium offers)
Downside: 81.00-20 (light bids), 80.75-95 (medium stop sell zone), 80.45-65 (light 2-way interest)
EUR
Topside: 1.3235-55 (light offers), 1.3260-80 (medium stop buyers), 1.3300-20 (light stop buyers)
Downside: 1.3150-70 (light stop sellers), 1.3120-40 (light-medium bids), 1.3070-1.3110 (light bids)
EURJPY
Topside: 107.90-108.10 (light 2-way interest), 108.30-50 (light offers), 109.80-110.00 (medium stops)
Downside: 106.90-107.10 (light stop sellers), then a gap till 105.60-90 (light bids)AUD
Topside: 1.0405-25 (light-medium stop buyers), 1.0445-65 (light 2-way), 1.0475-95 (medium-heavy offers)Â
Downside: 1.0300-20 (light 2-way), 1.0250-70 (light bids), 1.0185-1.0205 (light stop sellers)Â
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While bad news continues to dominate the Eurozone the same cannot be said for the actual currency Asia again has been very quiet with 1.3217/34 about covering the range. GBP traded no different to the Euros 1.6158/78 covers it, with very little interest and no clear indication of a recessionary currency. AUD moved higher one suspects on the back of Oz waking up to a new day with their currency again above expectations. Having moved up above the 1.0370 level though it ran into some resistance just below 1.0380. from that point its slowly traded around the 55/70 range for the session. USDJPY trade sideways in the early part of the session before finding supply during the fix moving it down from the 81.40 area to below 81.20 since that point it’s been quiet with the industry activity index having very little impact.
CNY:
PBOC fixes yuan mid-point at record 6.2829/dollarÂ
Moody’s confirms China Aa3 rating, outlook positiveÂ
China’s Economy Expected To Improve In Coming Months – ReportÂ
China mulls new rules for state pension fund investmentsÂ
JPY:
Ex-Japan DPJ Leader Ozawa Acquitted In Political Fund CaseÂ
Two Tepco affiliates to merge businesses -NikkeiÂ
SGD:
Singapore Manufacturing Output Falls 3.4% On Year In March
NZD:
NZ FinMin says pressure on finances is manageable
NZ Fin Min: Preliminary Budget Estimates Show NZ$640M Budget Deficit In 2014-15
Asia:
ADB: May See Intense Inflows To Emerging Markets
Â
Actual                  Consensus                        Previous             Revised Â
21:00   NZD    RBNZ Rate Decision    Â
2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.50%Â Â
0:00     AUD    Conference Board Leading Index Feb   Â
0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.10%Â Â
4:30     JPY     All Industry Activity Index M/M Feb                  Â
-0.10Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -1.00%Â
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Today’s data
Consensus                          Previous Â
8:30     GBP    BBA Mortgage Approvals Mar             Â
34.3KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 33.1KÂ Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr FÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
-19.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -19.8Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr                Â
94.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 94.4Â Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr                  Â
-7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -7.2Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00     EUR    Eurozone Services Confidence Apr                  Â
-0.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.3Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00   GBP    CBI Reported Sales Apr           Â
-4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â
12:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr PÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
2.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2.10%Â Â
12:30   USD    Initial Jobless Claims               Â
375KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 386KÂ Â Â Â
14:00   USD    Pending Home Sales M/M Mar             Â
1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.50%Â
14:30   USD    Natural Gas Storage                Â
46BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 25B
Ranges as of 6am London time
Bid         Offer     High      Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 81.148Â Â 81.152Â Â 81.43Â Â Â Â 81.119
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32221 1.32230 1.3234Â Â 1.3217
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 107.295 107.307 107.658 107.285
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.03730 1.03740 1.0375Â Â 1.0351
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81630 0.81660 0.8166Â Â 0.8141
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.98230 0.98250 0.9837Â Â 0.9822
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20162 1.20168 1.2018Â Â 1.2015
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.90869 0.90880 0.9091Â Â 0.9082
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61710 1.61720 1.6178Â Â 1.6159
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.81765 0.81775 0.8181Â Â 0.8177
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24150 1.24160 1.2438Â Â 1.2414
EUR/SEKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.88200 8.88670 8.885Â Â Â Â 8.881
EUR/NOKÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.56000 7.56340 7.561Â Â Â Â 7.556