Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Weekend news
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EUR:Â
Greece Votes in General Elections With Euro’s Future at Stake
Exit polls leave it wide open to a new election, or far right being King maker
Samaras Says Return to Drachma Would Be Catastrophic, Bild Says
France Votes With Sarkozy Narrowing Hollande’s Lead in Polls
EU to Show Flexibility in Enforcing Deficit Rules, Rehn Says
Italians to Give Shape to Political Landscape in Local Elections
Germany Sees Additional 5 Billion-Euro Tax Haul, Spiegel Says
IG Metall Says 6.5% Salary Rise Required Amid Full Order Books
Hollande, wins, and expectations of growth policies instead of austerity
USD:Â
Obama Opens Attack on Romney as Election Campaign Is Engaged
GBP:Â
London Mayor Johnson Re-Elected, Bucks National Anti-Tory Trend
AUD:Â
Australia’s Gillard Dealt Blow as Lawmaker Joins Opposition
Australia Budget to Put Fiscal Settings on Right Path, Wong Says
AUD/USD:Â
Australia, U.S. Boost Security Cooperation Amid al-Qaeda Threat
RUB:Â
Russian International Reserves Rose to $524.4 Billion in April
NYK Close  and Asian open
Close     Bid    Offer
USDJPYÂ Â 79.82Â 79.85Â 79.90 | EURUSDÂ 1.3082 1.3060 1.3065 | EURJPYÂ 104.43 104.20 104.30 | AUDUSDÂ 1.0177 1.0156 1.0160 | NZDUSDÂ 0.7952 0.7955 0.7060 | USDCADÂ 0.9953 0.9933 0.9935 |
EURCHFÂ 1.2012 1.2013 1.2015 | USDCHFÂ 0.9180 0.9196 0.9200 | GBPUSDÂ 1.6155 1.6140 1.6160 |
EURGBPÂ 0.8098 0.8085 0.8090Â
Harry Hindsight
Euro’s continued its slow movement down into the London session following a slow Asian market, we traded as low as 1.3118 before we started to see US figures hitting weaker than expected for Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) this weak number had Euro’s recovering the days losses to peak just below 1.3180 level however, having just made the highs exit polls in the French elections saw Sarkozy struggling 4 points behind and we saw S&P downgrading 7 regions in Spain forcing Euro to drop suddenly to make new lows for the day initially trading just through 1.3090 and drifting lower into the close. GBP Having traded quietly in Asia GBP only really awakened into the NYK session with poor news out of Europe Cable followed the move lower banging off 1.6142 a couple of times and finding some support for the day half of the NYK session remained quiet as Cable ticked up small. AUD was linked at the hip with the Euro for the day, having drifted towards the support level of 1.0250 when Euro broke lower there was insufficient support to hold it up and it made a the drop below the 1.0200 level for the first time this year having moved up above the level at the beginning of Jan, it moved into late NYK below the line and trade sideways for the balance of the session. USDJPY was as dull in London as it had been in Asia, until NFP which moved it back from above 80.00 to the mid 79.75 doubling the range for the day.
Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus=C | Previous=P | Revised=RÂ
08:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Apr FÂ Â Â A 46.9 | C 47.9 | P 47.9
09:00   EUR    Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.00% | P -0.10%Â
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Change in Non-farm Payrolls Apr A 115K | C 165K | P 120K | R 154K
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 8.10% | C 8.20% | PÂ 8.20%Â Â
14:00Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Ivey PMI Apr A 52.7 | CÂ 60.8 | C 63.5 Â Â Â
For today
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Mar A 7.40% | C 3.20% | P -7.80% | R -8.80%
1:30     AUD    NAB Business Confidence Apr  A 4 | P 3        Â
1:30Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Mar A 0.90% | C 0.20% | P 0.20% | R 0.30%
With the news that the exit polls to the Greek election are looking as if the election is going to be hung meaning there will either be another election next month or coalition government with parts with their own agenda and another accident waiting to happen. Euro’s opened 1.3060/65 just off from the NYK close and started to trade lower almost immediately dipping into the upper 1.2950’s and then settling down into a 1.2960/80 range for the remainder of the session. GBP market traded up pre Tokyo only to see it drop from 1.6152 down to 1.6112 on the initial selloff then it ranged 1.6115/27 for the session. AUD started to drop just prior to Tokyo opening and when the Euro went so did the OZ although it traded down to below 1.0110 its struggled slowly back to the 1.0140 level but fails to push any higher over the remainder of the session. USDJPY with the Euro move lower USDJPY was forced higher as both the EURJPY and USDJPY found strong bids particularly in USDJPY at 79.50/60, initially forcing USDJPY back to just a couple of tics off the 80.00 level but once the rush was over it drifted back to trade 79.70/85 into the bank holiday London market.
EUR:
With 96% of vote in, main Greek parties fail to win majority
Sarkozy’s sparkle faded in re-election bid
CNY:
PBOC Vice Governor: Yuan Rate Close To Balanced Level – Report
China dissident Chen expects Beijing to allow U.S. trip
CNY/JPY/KRW:
China, Japan, S.Korea to talk about free trade zone
JPY:
BOJ Apr 9-10 minutes: Members agreed should watch for Feb easing impact
AUD:
Australian March Retail Sales Rose 0.9% Vs +0.2% Consensus
Australian Building Approvals Rose 7.4% in March
Australia job advertisements fall in April-ANZ
SGD:
Singapore CB says committed to price stability
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Today’s data
Consensus = C                            Previous  = P
5:45Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr C 3.10% | P 3.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â
7:00     CHF     Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Apr   P 237.5B         Â
7:15Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Apr C 0.20% | P 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
7:15Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Apr C -0.90% |Â P -1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence May C -15.3 | P -14.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
10:00Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M Mar C 0.50% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Mar C 2.30% | 7.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
               Bid                      Offer                    High         Low
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.808Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.816Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.981Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.64
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29786Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29798Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.3073Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.29552
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.580Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.600Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 104.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 103.238
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01380Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.01400Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0168Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.011
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79200Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79230Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7945Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7907
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99720Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.99740Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9988Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9923
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20103Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20105Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2015Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20102
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92521Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.92540Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9272Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9191
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61210Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.61230Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6173Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.6115
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80500Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80510Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.809Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8037