Daily FX Rambles

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 79.674 | EURUSD 1.25155 | EURJPY 99.725 | AUDUSD 0.97585 | NZDUSD 0.75389 | USDCAD 1.02932 | EURCHF 1.20119 | USDCHF 0.95962 | GBPUSD 1.56602 | EURGBP 0.79945 |

Weekend news

EUR:

Greek Pro-Bailout New Democracy Party Leads in Six Opinion Polls
Greece Would Worsen Suffering by Breaking Aid Deal, Samaras Says
Bankia Group to Seek EU19 Billion From Government to Restructure
Greeks Must Stop ‘Trying to Escape Tax,’ Lagarde Tells Guardian
Irish Treaty Support Drops, Stays Ahead, SBP Opinion Poll Shows
New Europe Rules May Make Bank Bondholders Take Losses, FT Says
IMF’s Zhu Says Greece Should Stay in Euro Area, Now Tv Reports
Krugman Predicts Greek Exit Would Benefit Spain, El Mundo Says
USD/CNY:

U.S. Treasury Declines to Designate China a Currency Manipulator
CNY:

China Industrial Companies’ Profits Declined 2.2% in April
China to Encourage Private Investment in Banks to Fuel Growth
GBP:

U.K. May Tighten Migrant Controls in Euro Crisis, Telegraph Says
BOE’s Forecasts ‘Make Pessimistic Reading,’ Dale Tells Times
CHF:

SNB Sees Considerable Upward Pressure on Franc, Jordan Tells SZ
JPY:

Japan Cabinet Approval Rises to 28%, Kyodo Survey Shows
SGD:

Singapore’s PAP Loses By-Election in Failure to Recover Support
AUD:

Gillard Backs Australian Jobs as Overseas Workers Criticized 
NZD:

N.Z.’s English Says New Christchurch Quake May Slow Rebuilding

 

Opening Ranges Wellington NZ

USDJPY 79.54 | 79.68 | EURUSD 1.2535 | 1.2542 | EURJPY 99.70 | 99.93| AUDUSD 0.9755 | 0.9780 | NZDUSD 0.7532 | 0.7562 | USDCAD 1.0290 | 1.0299 | EURCHF 1.2013 | 1.2018 | USDCHF 0.9575 | 0.9591 | GBPUSD 1.5651 | 1.5675 | EURGBP 0.7994 | 0.8008 |

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: traded generally sideways having been dull in Asia, London initially took it higher towards the 1.2600 level before starting to dip back the other way towards the NYK open with very little data and most of the double speak and rumours out of the EU summit, there was only the previous sentiment to go by, we briefly dipped below 1.2500 but then moved to 1.2520 and narrowed in range as we moved towards the NYK close centring on the 1.2520 level.

·         GBP: Not much difference from above with a lack of data it seemed to be attached to the hip with the Euro and did very little over the session, which seemed surprising given the amount of speculation over when if ever QE will creep into picture, a touch above 1.5690 and down to 1.5630 about says it all for the 24hr period.

·         AUD: Asia sold it and Europe bought it back from 0.9728 moving to above 0.9794, 20 tics above the highs in Asia staying around the 80/90 level into the NYK session before starting a slow drift taking 6hrs to move to around the 0.9750 level, nothing of note over the 24hrs.

·         JPY: After the rally in Asia from 79.55 to 7982, London looked for safe haven currencies to buy and voted for the JPY taking it from those highs down to below 79.50 before finding a few bids to support the market from exporters remaining bids.

·         You wondered why it’s called Rambles and there you have it.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

23:30     JPY         National CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%   

23:30     JPY         Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May                A -0.80% | C -0.50% | P -0.50% 

06:00     EUR        German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun A 5.7 | C 5.6 | P 5.6 | R 5.7

13:55     USD       U. of Michigan Confidence May (F) A 79.3 | C 77.8 | P 77.8        

For today

USDJPY
Topside : 79.90-80.20 (light offers) 80.20-80.50 (light offers) 80.50-80.80 (light offers) 
Downside : 79.10-79.40 (medium two way interests) 78.80-79.10 (medium sell stops) 78.50-78.80 (decent sell stops) EURUSD
Topside : 1.2590-1.2620 (light offers) 1.2620-1.2650 (light two way interests) 1.2650-1.2680 (light offers) 
Downside : 1.2470-1.2500 (medium sell stops) 1.2440-1.2470 (decent sell stops) 1.2410-1.2440 (medium bids)

EURJPY
Topside : 102.00-102.30 (light buy stops) 
Downside : 99.00-99.30 (light bids)  98.70-99.00 (light sell stops) AUDUSD
Topside : 0.9850-0.9880 (light buy stops) 
Downside : 0.9780-0.9810 (light bids) 0.9700-0.9730 (light sell stops)

 

23:50     JPY         BoJ Minutes                                                      

23:50     JPY         CSPI Y/Y Apr       0.20%    -0.10%  -0.30%  -0.20%

CNY/USD:

U.S. Shouldn’t Use Yuan as Political Tool: Xinhua Commentary

EUR:

Spain May Ask EFSF for Funds to Help Banking Sector – Report

Moody’s: Portugal’s Budget Results Are Credit Positive

JPY:

BOJ Minutes: Some: Must Prevent Misunderstanding BOJ Policy Is Monetization

AUD/CNY:

RBA Stevens: No doubt Chinese data on softer side

AUD:

Australia CB to take bigger role in fin system oversight

Australia’s PM Faces No Serious Leadership Challenge – Minister

More RBA Rate Cuts Not Guaranteed In Australia – Fitch

NZD: Moody’s: NZ Govt Deficit Reduction Could Be Difficult If Growth Slower Than Expected

N.Z.’s Key Says Seeking Views on Europe from BOE Talks

·         EUR: The market opened higher on the Tokyo open trading around the 1.2565/70 area, some EUR/JPY trading going through on the Tokyo fixing moving Euro’s rather than the JPY leg taking the market above the 1.2590 level where we drifted around for the next 3hrs. The initial move was connected to the weekend news which while not concrete seemed to be a little more positive than the last two weeks.

·         GBP: Same gap higher as the Euro, but less convincing over all one suspects more dragging along than actually Cable motivated, EURGBP with it opening above the 0.8000 level and pushing up to 0.8025. Cable opened up around the 1.5685 level drifted off slightly to below 1.5675 before making a move above 1.5700 and holding around that level.

·         AUD: Opened around the 0.9800 level moving steadily up to 0.9860 level before stalling. Nothing at all to say with no data, and nobody speaking out of turn.

·         JPY: Opened roughly where it closed and moved down steadily as the pressure on EURJPY was released, so as Euro’s rose USDJPY could give ground, 79.70/79.38 pins the market on a very dull day.

·         With very little data to go on today one would suspect either a very quiet trading range or wild swings on wild comments out of Europe.

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C  Previous = P

Nothing of note.

 

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs   Lows

USD/JPY               79.73 | 79.379

EUR/USD             1.2598 | 1.253

EUR/JPY               100.26 | 99.797

AUD/USD            0.9864 | 0.977

NZD/USD             0.7630 | 0.7561

USD/CAD             1.0290 | 1.0247

EUR/CHF              1.20328 | 1.20111

USD/CHF             0.9582 | 0.9538

GBP/USD             1.5710 | 1.5675

EUR/GBP             0.8025 | 0.8003

 

Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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