Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.592 | EURUSD 1.25328 | EURJPY 99.753 | AUDUSD 0.97633 | NZDUSD 74996| USDCAD 1.02661 | EURCHF 1.20133 | USDCHF 0.95846 | GBPUSD 1.56704 | EURGBP 0.79979
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: After a quiet session in Asia moving from the 1.2600 level to range in the 1.2570/80 level poor figures out of France, Germany and the Eurozone set the tone for the day, Euro’s moved down as the figures came out making a low just through 1.2520 before finding some support, from those data imposed lows the market again moved back to the Asia range, only to find US figures as poor as the European numbers turning the market back above 1.2600 topping at 1.2620, however a spike in EURCHF was more to blame than the numbers SNB failed to comment and we will have to see tomorrow at best or next week to see if anything shows up, there have been a lot of Asian CB selling over the past few weeks so it could be a general close out of bets to see if SNB would stand up. Once the rally was over we then went into a general decline with comments flowing from the EU summit on Eurobonds, while most countries are in agreement Germany is not and lets face it they will be underwriting them, Greek polls continue to show a hung parliament, however they see a leap in support of remaining in the Euro by the general population, so maybe the situation is beginning to filter through to the unions and blue collar workers.
·        GBP: The same trading pattern as the Euro, suggesting less of safe haven flow that we’ve seen over the past week, Cable traded down through 1.5640 on a spike rallying back above 1.5720 in NYK before seeing the same sort of selloff towards the close. GDP figures should nothing other than what we already knew and the market didn’t react.
·        AUD: Tagged with the Euro, moving down out of Asia’s 0.9727/80, dropping below the 0.9720 on the Euro figures and moving above 0.9800 as it tagged along for the ride the only break away was in the last two hours of NYK where the Euro hadn’t found the bottom AUD was moving up away from the 0.9720 area again and managed to move above 0.9760.
·        JPY: 30 tic range on the wide for the whole 24hrs so difficult to say anything, we saw EURJPY buying during Asia again retail jumping on the fact that the BoJ doesn’t like the cross being below 100 however, I think it has plenty of room to the downside before anything official will be do, but even then they may be reluctant in upsetting the Europeans.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (NZD) Apr A 355M | C 400M | P 134M | R 186M
02:30Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI A 48.7 | P 49.3Â Â Â
05:00    JPY        BoJ Monthly Economic Report                                                 Â
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (F) A 0.50% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Apr A 1.33B | C 1.90B | P 1.69B | RÂ 1.58B
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French PMI Manufacturing May (P) A 44.4 | C 47 | P 46.9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French PMI Services May (P) A 45.2 | C 45.8 | P 45.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PMI Manufacturing May (A) A 45 | C 47 | P 46.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PMI Services May (A) A 52 | C 52 | P 52.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate May A 106.9 | C 109.4 | P 109.9Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment May A 113.3 | C 117.1 | P 117.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations May A 100.9 | C 102 | P 102.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Manufacturing May A 45 | C 46 | P 45.9Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services May (A) A 46.5 | C 46.7 | P 46.9Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Loans for House Purchase Apr A 32.4K | C 32.3K | P 31.9KÂ Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A -0.30% | C -0.20% | P -0.20%Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Y/Y Q1 (P) A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Mar A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders Apr A 0.20% | C 0.50% | P -4.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation Apr A -0.60% | C 1.00% | P -1.10%Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims A 370K | C 368K | P 370KÂ Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 77B | C 77B | P 61BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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For today
USDJPY
Topside : 79.90-80.25 (small offers) 80.30 (light bid stops)
Downside : 79.40 79.30 (med bids) 79.25-78.85 (good staggered sell stops) EURUSD
Topside : 1.2595-1.2635 (decent offers) 1.2630 (small but numerous stop bids)
Downside: 1.2520 1.2505 (option protection) 1.2505-1.2475 (medium sized sell stops) 1.2460-1.2425 (more decent sell stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 100.25-100.65 (light buy stops)
Downside: 99.70-99.45 (marginal sell stops) AUDUSD:
Topside: 0.9775-0.9820 (small offers)
Downside: 0.9715-0.9660 (evenly spaced sell stops)
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23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y Apr A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May A -0.80% | C -0.50% | P -0.50%Â
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JPY:
Japan consumer prices edge up; deflation seen persisting
Japan EconMin: See no change to BOJ’s easing stance
Japan EconMin Furukawa: Japan Price Trend Becoming Favourable
CNY:
China Central Bank-Backed Paper: Don’t Rule Out Possibility of Lending Rate Cuts in Near Term
China exports show signs of recovery -ministry
China Activist Chen Pledges To Keep Speaking Out
AUD/CNY:
Australia, China to Push For Europe Stimulus At G-20 -Minister
NZD:
New Zealand’s Christchurch shaken by 5.2 quake
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·        EUR: Euro’s has again struggled to do anything meaningful, moving from the close to touch 1.2552 we moved down to the 1.2520 during the latter part of the session again finding good bids resting there with UK banks being noticed.
·        GBP: Had more going on today than the EUR, GBPJPY was seen both in the straight cross and through the legs again UK banks were seen doing the buying. EURGBP moved back up above 0.8000 having dropped down below the level yesterday. Even though we saw GBP buying it didn’t seem to stop the market falling back with the Euro but unlike the Euro it seems more reluctant to move back to the previous levels.
·        AUD: The Oz struggled to maintain yesterday’s pricing failing to move back above 0.9780 it fell back, EUR/AUD seemed to be the focus of the day driving the AUD down to the 0.9730 level but again it failed to break lower.
·        JPY: USDJPY rose steadily over the session with one particular bank seen selling JPY against both GBP and USD moving the market up to 79.81 from the NYK close but it was a slow move and as we move into the European session the market again drifts off to mid-range with 79.55 being the low end. Overall a very quiet session, and one can only surmise that some may have been reluctant to take on new positions before the weekend.
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.6 | P 5.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:55Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence May (F) C 77.8 | P 77.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
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                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.828 | 79.549
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2555 | 1.2518
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.06 | 99.73
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9785 | 0.9726
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7560 | 0.7514
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0284 | 1.0257
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2037 | 1.2012
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9606 | 0.95781
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5674 | 1.5648
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8008 | 0.80005
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Good luck