Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.017 | EURUSD 1.27804 | EURJPY 100.998 | AUDUSD 0.98413 | NZDUSD 0.7564 | USDCAD 1.02222 | EURCHF 1.20119 | USDCHF 0.9397 | GBPUSD 1.58192 | EURGBP 0.80789 |
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: After a gap on the opening the market moved up steadily during Asia continued into London before hitting the offers at 1.2620 onwards, with Italian business confidence falling to 86.2 from a revised 89.1 for April and odd mutterings the market turned when it failed dropping immediately with new shorts being added above the 1.2600 having dropped below 1.2580 it held into the NYK open before again turning south, the market eventually stabilised around the 1.2530 level for most of the remaining session.
·        GBP: A very quiet set of sessions for Cable having gapped on the opening it gradually moved up above the 1.5700 level initially dragged by the market down to the 1.5675 level before attempting a second move higher on the back of EUR/GBP selling, it held the level for several hours but with very little news it began to drift moving back to the 1.5675 level running all the way to the close. EUR/GBP drifted back below the 0.8000 level having started the day higher.
·        AUD: Unlike the Euro the Oz held onto some of its overnight gains moving above 0.9880 before slipping back and finishing 30 tics lower, but liquidity seemed to disappear into the late NYK session.
·        JPY: As cross JPY against Euro’s and GBP gapped higher USDJPY ended up opening higher from Friday but a general USD sell off ensued with USDJPY gradually moving down from the 79.70 level to below 79.40 holding the level for several hours into the close in NYK.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CSPI Y/Y Apr A 0.20% | C -0.10% | P -0.30% | R -0.20%
For today
JPY
Topside: 79.70-80 (light offers), 79.90-80.20 (light 2-way), 80.40-90 (light staggered offers)
Downside: 79.05-20 (light-medium stop sell zone), 78.75-90 (light stops), 78.30-50 (2-way interest, stop bias) EUR
Topside: 1.2580-1.2615 (light offers), 1.2620-30 1.2650-60 (2-way interest, light stop bias)
Downside: 1.2520 (light bids) 1.2480-1.2510 (medium stop sellers), 1.2445-65 (2-way interest, medium stop bias), 1.2390-1.2410 (2-way interest, medium stop bias)
EURJPY
Topside: 100.00-20 (light offers), 100.40-60 (medium-light stop buyers)
Downside: 99.30-50 (medium stop sellers), 99.00-20 (light bids) AUD
Topside: 0.9860-80 (light offers), 0.9910-30 (series of light stop buyers)
Downside: 0.9800-200 (light 2-way interest), 0.9770-90 (medium stop sellers)
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JPY/CNY:
Japan, China to launch direct yen-yuan trade on June 1
EUR:
Fitch Says Greek Exit Would Pressure All Ratings
JPY:
Japan jobless rate rises to 4.6% in April
Japan April household spending rises 2.6% YoY
AUD:
Australia States Say Foreign Demand Increasing For Semi Bonds
CNY/EUR:
China’s Wage Costs Threaten Foreign Investment, EU Chamber Says
GBP:
Broadbent Says U.K. Inflation Threat Justified BOE Stimulus Halt
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·        EUR: Having dropped during the day session the market was always on the back foot, first couple of hours went quietly trading around the 1.2540 level before an attempt to push lower appeared taking the market down through the 1.2520 level but running into a few bids holding the market, we then ran into the Tokyo fix which saw AUD/JPY EUR/JPY buying appear which put paid to any further attempts to push through the to get at the stop losses below the figure. Gradually moving up to where we started the market struggled to do anything meaningful for the remaining part of the session.
·        GBP: Similar story as that of the Euro with volumes seeming to be thin on the ground the market moved down from 1.5684 level dropping to 1.5656 and gradually moving back to near the starting point.
·        AUD: The Oz suffered more than the Euro moving from 0.9856 to an attempt a move below 0.9800 bids holding until we saw fixing demand in AUD/JPY and the market moved up over the rest of the session running to the level we started at.
·        JPY: A large 22 tic range on the day, a rise up to the fix in USD/JPY topping out at 79.64 before declining once the fixing demand was finished with, no massive flows showing.
·        Overall another dull day in paradise as the wait and see continues.
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23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 4.60% | C 4.50% | P 4.50%Â Â Â
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Apr A 2.60% | C 2.50% | P 3.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Apr A 5.80% | C 6.00% | P 10.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P
6:00       CHF       UBS Consumption Indicator Apr               P 1.22  Â
10:00    GBP      CBI Reported Sales May               C -8 | P -6         Â
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (P) C -0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â
12:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (P) C 2.10% | P 2.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:00    USD      S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar               C -2.70% | P-3.50%       Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence May C 69.5 | P 69.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25490 | 1.25093
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.645 | 79.418
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 99.760 | 99.500
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96062 | 0.9579
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5683 | 1.5656
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9858 | 0.9802
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7620 | 0.7578
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0263 | 1.0232
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20229 | 1.20160
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8000 | 0.79895
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Good luck
Andy