Andy Harrison
Good morning,
 NYK Close
USDJPY 79.507 | EURUSD 1.25024 | EURJPY 99.395 | AUDUSD 0.98479 | NZDUSD 0.76219 | USDCAD 1.02226 | EURCHF 1.2010 | USDCHF 0.96063 | GBPUSD 1.56408 | EURGBP 0.79924Â
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: A quiet day for the most part with very little data and chatter in Euroland, having done very little in Asia we moved into the London session moving higher on early East European buying taking us above 1.2570 before the market settled back into the previous range of 1.2520/50 however, Spain and to a less extent Greece kept the market suppressed add to which late IMM selling of the Euro suspected to be option related pushed the Euro firmly below the 1.2500 level moving to a low of 1.2461 taking out stop losses on the way, a minor rally into the close of NYK saw the pair back above 1.2500 with EURGBP buying showing through.
·        GBP: Cable traded quietly for the day with the market moving up above 1.5700 after the London open having moved up there we slowly declined from the highs moving into the NYK session holding between 1.5660/90 before the late selloff in NYK during the selloff we saw EURGBP dropping down from above the 0.8000 level into the 0.7980’s before late buying of the pair lifted the Euro but not the Cable which ended in a tight range around 1.5630 into the NYK close.
·        AUD: A range players day with early lows set in Asia just above the 0.9800 level rallying over the Asian session to just below 0.9900, on the back of carry trade buying, London then reversed those gains triggering weak stop losses on the way down, once those stop losses were triggered the market held and moved steadily back north before heavy selling on the IMM moved the market again to the 0.9800 level, a second failure here left the market with a move up to the starting point in Asia.
·        JPY: 79.36/64 on the wide, with rumours of exporter bids below 79.30 holding the market up also the EURJPY level below 100.00 suggest further verbal intervention as the BoJ seem to dislike it below this level. Topside saw importer offers trapping us in the limited range nothing massive but sufficient during these quiet periods to hold the market.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Apr A 4.60% | C 4.50% | P 4.50%Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y Apr A 2.60% | C 2.50% | P 3.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Trade Y/Y Apr A 5.80% | C 6.00% | P 10.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator Apr A 1.41 | C 1.22 | P 1.2
GBP      CBI Reported Sales May               21 A -8 | P -6    Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M May (P) A -0.20% | C -0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y May (P) A 2.10% | C 2.10% | P 2.10%Â Â Â Â Â
USD      S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y Mar               A -2.60% | C -2.70% | P -3.50% Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence May A 64.9 | C 69.5 | P 69.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside : 79.80-80.15 (light mixed bag with a net-net stop bias)
Downside : 79.40-79.00 (good sell stops) 78.95-78.75 (small bids) EURUSD
Topside : 1.2480 (light offers) 1.2530-1.2550 (light mixed bag)
Downside: 1.2450 (light bids) 1.2450-1.2380 (decent sized staggered sell stops) 1.2355-1.2300 (more medium sized sell stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 99.85-100.20 (small mixed bag with stop bias)
Downside: 98.95-98.60 (marginal sell stops) 98.40-98.00 (more decent sell stops) AUDUSD:
Topside: 0.9895-0.9920 (light offers)
Downside: 0.9775 (decent sell stops)
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22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr A -7.20% | C -10.00% | P 19.80% | R 19.60%
23:15Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI May A 50.7 | P 50.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.90% | R 1.10%
JPY:
BOJ’s Yamaguchi not ruling out further easing -Nikkei
Japan May manufacturing PMI at 50.7, unchanged from previous month
DPJ Ozawa: Still Opposed To Idea of Raising Sales Tax
CNY:
China academics advise against aggressive stimulus
AUD:
Australian April Retail Sales -0.2% Vs. +0.2% Consensus
Australia’s Resources Minister Urges for Wages Restraint In Sector
EUR: Europe’s debtors must pawn their gold for Eurobond redemption Telegraph
·        EUR: Having rallied in the latter part of NYK Asia came in selling moving it quickly from the opening down to the 1.2480 level were we held for a couple of hours as 80 always attracts support or resistance from the Asians however weak retail sales in the AUD tipped the market and Euro’s slowly moved through the level and putting the Euro down to the 1.2457/70 range on a quiet day.
·        GBP: A slow decline from the NYK close on quiet trading saw the Cable from the 1.5640 level down to just below 1.5610 finally finding some support and trading sideways for several hours afterwards.
·        AUD: Initially dragged lower on Euro selling moving to 0.9810 just before the Retail sales number hit showing a large drop only tempered by a revision of the previous number, the market moved quickly to make a new low around the 0.9775 area before stabilising and holding just below the 0.9800 level.
·        JPY: Another quiet day holds the USDJPY between 79.40/60 although US banks hold stop losses below the bottom of the range exporter bids seem to be sat holding the market for the moment probably not in great size but the market being so quiet would indicate enough to hold Asia up for the day. On the topside there seemed to be a lack of interest but with no one willing to play we didn’t really test further than the mid 79.50’s.
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P
7:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator May C 0.41 | P 0.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Apr C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 3.40% | P 3.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Apr C 50.1K | P 49.9KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Apr C 0.30% | P -0.80%
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply Y/Y Apr P -5.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence May (F) C -19.3 | P -19.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence May C 91.9 | P 92.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence May C -10.2 | P -9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence May C -2.8 | P -2.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr C 2.10% | P -1.60%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Apr C -0.10% | P 4.10%
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.57 |Â 79.407
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2505 | 1.24572
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 99.42 |Â 98.95
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9842 | 0.9775
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7620 | 0.7588
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0256 | 1.0221
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20149 | 1.2009
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9642 | 0.9611
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5637 | 1.561
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7990 | 0.7979
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2803 | 1.2781
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Good luck
Andy