Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.067| EURUSD 1.23666 | EURJPY 97.774 | AUDUSD 0.97061 | NZDUSD 0.75387 | USDCAD 1.02986| EURCHF 1.20086| USDCHF 0.97101 | GBPUSD 1.54798| EURGBP 0.79886 |
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: The steady declines of Asia continued throughout the other two sessions with no respite moving down to hold again above the figure area this time 1.2400 with a minor option barrier in play. Spanish yields appear to have moved up to just below the dreaded 7% causing more consternation across euro land, with none performing debt becoming a large problem for the Spanish banks and a refusal by the ECB to sanction funding of sovereign debt through the funding the Spanish banks. With European confidence numbers worsening Euro’s moved through the 1.2400 falling to the 1.2360 level, levels not seen since 2010 and looking weak, most of the selling seems to be from within the Euro area with risk definitely a no at the moment.
·        GBP: After a quiet Asian session money supply increase put paid to the status quo and it dropped quickly, it’s not something we didn’t expect but it would seem there’s more cash sloshing about than may be good for the economy. There was a minor rally back above 1.5600 up to the NYK opening where fresh selling appeared as the GBP became attached to the hip with the Euro falling to below 1.5500 closing towards its lows.
·        AUD: The poor retail sales numbers which caused the selloff in Asia continued on the London open, moving down to below 0.9750 before a brief attempt to move back above 0.9800 but once failed there on the NYK close the market again turned south as NYK market reacted to the retail sales numbers and the declining Euro moving to the 0.9700 level into the close.
·        JPY: After the quiet Asian session the market was turned on its head as cross Yen selling kicked in one through stop losses and two as safe haven buying of Yen kicked in. from the low end of Asia above 79.40 moved down in stages first holding on the suspected Exporter bid 79.35 and again 79.00 before finally pushing below 79.00 touching 78.87 before finding another level of support moving to trade just above 79.00.
Â
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Apr A -7.20% | C -10.00% | P 19.80% | R 19.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI May A 50.7 | P 50.7Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Apr A -0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.90% | R 1.10%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator May A 0.81 | C 0.41 | P 0.4 | R 0.43
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y Apr A 2.50% | C 3.40% | P 3.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals Apr A 52K | C 50.1K | P 49.9K | R 51K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M Apr A 1.10% | C 0.30% | P -0.80% | R -0.70%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply Y/Y Apr A -3.80% | C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -5.00% | P -4.80%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence May (F) A -19.3 | C -19.3 | P -19.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Economic Confidence May A 90.6 | C 91.9 | P 92.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Confidence May A -11.3 | C -10.2 | P -9Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services Confidence May A -4.9 | C -2.8 | P -2.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M Apr A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M Apr A -2.00% | C 2.10% | P -1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Pending Home Sales M/M Apr A -5.50% | C -0.10% | P 4.10%Â Â Â Â Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 79.20-40 (light stops), 79.50-70 (light offers), 79.85-80.15 (light 2-way interest)
Downside: 78.70-90 (light stop sellers), 78.40-60 (series of heavy stops), 78.10-30 (medium 2-way) EUR
Topside: 1.2405-35 (l2-way, light stop bias), 1.2460-80 (light 2-way), 1.2530-50 (medium stops)
Downside: 1.2340-60 (series of medium stops), 1.2290-1.2310 (medium stops), 1.2250-70 (light stops)
EURJPY
Topside: 98.20-40 (light stops), 99.40-60 (light 2-way interest)
Downside: 97.00-20 (light 2-way), 96.70-90 (medium bids) AUD
Topside: 0.9730-50 (light offers), 0.9800-20 (light stop buyers)
Downside: 0.9675-95 (light stop sellers), 0.9650-70 (medium stops), 0.9590-0.9610 (medium stops)
Â
23:01Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Sentiment Survey A -29 | C -32 | P -31Â Â Â Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M A 0.32% | C 0.50% | P 1.30%
01:00Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NBNZ Business Confidence A 27.1 | P 35.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
01:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M A -8.70% | C 0.50% | P 7.40% | R 6.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
·        EUR: A tight range with several attempts to push lower but always failing around the 1.2360 level, moving up above 1.2375 before attempting the downside as we moved towards London early East Europeans were seen buying the weakness, pushing up above 1.2380.
·        GBP: As with the Euro very tight 1.5462/84 range with a sideways market, EURGBP moves up slightly above 0.8000 over the session but very little actually happening in the market as we wait for more comments.
·        AUD: News that Moody’s was reviewing the rates of Australian mortgage insurers upset the market as it was standing still with the rest of the market it dipped just before the release before moving down to trade 0.9673 several times before moving back up above the 0.9700 level not quiet reaching the early high of 0.9718 but close enough.
·        JPY: More margin calls for retail carry trade players and we see JPY strengthening from the 79.10 area, IP numbers weaker than expected did very little to halt the move down 79.72 held and we stayed around that area for the next 2hrs into the run in to London.
Â
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P
05:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y C 3.20% | P 5.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q C 0.00% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Retail Sales M/M C 0.20% | P 0.80%
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Change May C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -7K | P 19KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Unemployment Rate May C 6.80% | P 6.80%Â Â Â Â
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y May C 2.50% | P 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y May P 11.20%Â Â Â
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change May C 135K | P 119KÂ
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (CAD) Q1 C -$10.8B | P -$10.3BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q1 (P) C 1.90% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q1 (P) C 1.50% | P 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 370K | P 370KÂ Â Â Â Â Â
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI May C 57 | P 56.2Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 75B | P 77BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C 0.2M | P 0.9MÂ Â Â
Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.135 | 78.71
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23913 | 1.2358
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.92 | 97.36
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9719 | 0.9673
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7540 | 0.7501
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0313 | 1.0291
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2013 | 1.20084
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9720 | 0.9694
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5485 | 1.5463
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8005 | 0.79895
USD/SGDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2902 | 1.2867
Â
Good luck
Andy