Andy Harrison
Good morning,
Asia open and NYK Close
USDJPY 79.75-85 / 79.819 | EURUSD 1.2660-70 / 1.26616 | EURJPY 100.90-101.10 / Â 101.048 | AUDUSD 1.0230-45 / 1.02452 | NZDUSD 0.7990-10 / 0.80139 | USDCAD 1.0165-85 / 1.01679 | EURCHF 1.2010-20 Â / 1.20122 | USDCHF 0.9480-95 / 0.94869 | GBPUSD 1.5690-10 / Â 1.57044 | EURGBP 0.8060-75 / 0.80614 |
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Weekend News
EUR:
German Parliament Approves Fiscal Pact and Euro Bailout Fund
Central-Bank Euro Holdings Lowest in More Than 5 Years, IMF Says
Germany’s ESM Role, EU Fiscal Pact Challenged in Top Court Suits
Germany Wants Transaction Tax Tied to ESM Bank Aid, Focus Says
Greenspan Says Europe Like ‘Leaking Boat,’ Urges Politics
CNY:
China June Manufacturing PMI 50.2 Vs Economists’ Est. 49.9
CSRC: China to Mull Relaxing Investment Requirements for RQFII
PBOC Has Seldom Intervened in Yuan Market Recently: Official
CNY/EUR:
CBRC Official Says E.U. to Do Enough to Preserve Euro Zone
CNY/HKD:
China Approves First Mainland ETFs Tracking Hong Kong Stocks
PBOC Sees Progress on Non-Hong Kong Residents’ Yuan Accounts
PBOC’s Hu: China Won’t Raise Yuan Conversion for H.K. Residents
China’s Hu Says Hong Kong Still Has Deep-Rooted Conflicts
China to Allow More Travel to Hong Kong as Economic Ties Improve
CHF:
SNB President Jordan Says Enforcing Franc Limit Is Appropriate
NZD:
New Zealand Economy on Track for Moderate Growth, English Says
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: The market expected nothing and got the ESM bank recapitalisation, a QE in a different guise, net result was the market was caught short, and within 3 minutes we’d rallied the best part of 2 big figures taking us from the mid 1.24’s to a comfortable 1.26’s we held there throughout the London session and numbers in line with expectations apart from Personal spending kicked the Euro up above the 1.2680 level holding above 1.2640 into the close of NYK.
·        GBP: Cable reacted to the move in Euro moving from 1.5500 area to just below 1.5630 before trading sideways into the early part of London, a pickup in the services number saw the market lift again and trade above 1.5660 before giving ground back below the 1.5600 as EURGBP buying moved into the market taking the pairing 50 tics higher into the early part of NYK, once that pair finished its rally Cable again started to rise moving up to the 1.5690 in NYK and continuing into the close to push through 1.5700.
·        JPY: Started the day on the back foot drifting from the opening 79.45 level lower to drop below 79.20 a few times but holding late cross EURJPY buying kicked in weakening JPY across the board and USDJPY was not exception moving steadily higher to above 79.70 before we saw some profit taking in the EURJPY kicking in the drop was not so deep and by mid-NYK session we again pushed higher briefly flirting with the 80.00 level before dropping back towards the close.
·        AUD: A good day for the Oz while for most of the week we’ve been trading independently of the Euro as that went down the Oz managed to hold up and continue to rise as expected weakness in China was having less of an effect than was expected however, the current government overspend gives rise to worries about the balance if things were to change quickly and rallies are likely to be limited above here, we moved from the 1.0020 rising quickly on the Euro news to above 1.0140 then over the course of the day continued a steady rise to peak just above the 1.0250 level settling down slightly into the close.
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Friday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M May A -7.10% | C 3.00% | P -7.20% | R -7.60%
23:01Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â GfK Consumer Sentiment Jun A -29 | C -29 | P -29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:15    JPY        Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Jun               A 49.9 | P 50.7 Â
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate May A 4.40% | C 4.50% | P 4.60%Â
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Household Spending Y/Y May A 4.00% | C 2.50% | P 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:30Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â National CPI Core Y/Y May A -0.10% | C 0.00% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
23:30    JPY        Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Jun A -0.60% | C -0.70% | P -0.80% Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May (P) A -3.10% | C -2.80% | P -0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
05:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Y/Y May A 9.30% | C 6.50% | P 10.30%Â Â Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â KOF Leading Indicator Jun A 1.16 | C 0.78 | P 0.81 | R 0.8
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone M3 Y/Y May A 2.90% | C 2.30% | P 2.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Index of Services 3M/3M Apr A 0.00% | C -0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Jun A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Product Price M/M May A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Raw Materials Price Index M/M May A -1.00% | C -1.50% | P -2.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income May A Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending May A 0.00% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y May A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M May A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y May A 1.80% | C 1.80% | P 1.90%Â Â
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Chicago PMI Jun A 52.9 | C 53 | P 52.7Â Â Â Â
13:55Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jun (F) A 73.2 | C 53 | P 74.1
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For today
USDJPY
Topside: 80.00-80.30 light offers 80.50-80.80 medium buy stops 80.90-81.20 decent buy stopsÂ
Downside: 79.50-79.70 light bids 79.00-79.30 light sell stops 78.60-78.90 light sell stops
EURUSD
Topside 1.2670-1.2700 light buy stops 1.2720-1.2750 light buy stops 1.2760-1.2790 medium buy stops
Downside: 1.2600-1.2610 light bids 1.2560-1.2590 light bids 1.2520-1.2550 medium bids
EURJPY
Topside: 101.40-101.70 light buy stops 102.00-102.30 light offers
Downside: big gap down to 99.20 bids AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0280-1.0320 light buy stopsÂ
Downside 1.0200-1.0215 light bids 1.0170-1.0200 light bids 1.0120-1.0150 light bids
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23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 A -1 | C -4 | P -4Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 A 8 | C 7 | P 5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
0:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Jun A -0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
2:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 48.2 | P 48.4
JPY:
Japan corporate sentiment improves – BOJ tankan
Japan ruling party’s Ozawa says to quit the party
Many Japan lawmakers quit DPJ, but government keeps majority
Giant Japan public fund picks 6 asset firms to manage emerging market equities
Japan land prices sag for 4th year but at slower pace government
EUR:
Spain Overestimating Bank Profit Risks Seeking Too Little Relief
CNY:
China HSBC PMI hits 7-mth low of 48.2 in June
China Considers Easing Controls on FDI-Related Forex Business – Report
China Average Housing Price Rises in June after 9 Months of Decline – CREIS
Beijing Housing Sales Rise Sharply in June – Xinhua
TWD/CNY:
Taiwan Considers Allowing Companies to Issue Yuan Bonds
AUD:
Australia home prices rise 1% in June -survey
Australia Resources Capex to Rise Further in 2012 -Minister
Australia Resource Export Capacity Growth Sufficient -Government
Australia inflation gauge lowest since 2009 in June-TDMI
EUR/GBP:
Cameron Says He’s Not Opposed to British Referendum on Europe (probably the call for a transaction tax has something to do with it).
·        EUR: Whether Spanish or UK news has anything to do with it, the Euro traded down from its opening levels having opened up above 1.2670 triggering some minor stops the lions share are still alive and the market started to pick up on the negative tone of some of the weekend statements or lack of real substance, moving from above that 1.2670 area trading down to test the support below 1.2620, once it tested the low it’s not bounced and is dead in the water.
·        GBP: Moved steadily down, initially as the Far East caught the comments about a British referendum over the European question, whether to renegotiate or move out of the ever increasing mess. Either way they sold it down from just below the 1.5700 level bought it back then just before Tokyo fix sold it again moving down to below 1.5650 level to make the lows for the session, we’ve ticked back up to the low 1.5670’s since but one suspects the Japanese were not too keen on seeing a European union without the UK, mind you as a net contributor one imagines Germany the only other one will sit up and take note. But Cameron has my vote.
·        JPY: We opened around the 79.80 level and moved to a high of 79.96 about the highs of Friday before selling back down to the 79.70 level since then it’s been a quiet session looking slightly stronger for the Yen as we move towards the European session, Tanken was mixed but large looked in better shape than it has for a few months.
·        AUD: A steady decline with securities inflation showing a decline and being read as a leading indicator to the problems facing the Oz economy for the future however, it’s a minor figure and should be seen for what it is. Euro weakness didn’t help all too much and from the opening levels of 1.0265 we gradually dropped to test the support area 1.0220 pushing into the low teens before moving back above 1.0220 as with the Euro not a convincing bounce.
·        Overall: A quiet session with very little going on and an orderly decline as risk was off given the savage move from Friday some relaxing would have been expected but any impetus relies on details and not platitudes.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y May C 0.90% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â
7:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME-PMI Jun C 45 | P 45.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jun (F) C 44.8 | P 44.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jun C 46.5 | P 45.9Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate May C 11.10% | P 11.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Jun C 52 | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 53.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Jun C 46 | P 47.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.98 |Â 79.72
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2681 | 1.26145
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 101.29 | 100.63
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0269 | 1.0212
NZD/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8020 | 0.7999
USD/CAD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0199 | 1.0161
EUR/CHF Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2030 | 1.2008
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9524 | 0.9477
GBP/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5710 | 1.5650
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8073 | 0.8060
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Good luck
Andy