Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 0.79.51 | EURUSD 1.25761 | EURJPY 99.996 | AUDUSD 1.02482 | NZDUSD 0.80442 | USDCAD 1.01714 | EURCHF 1.20116 | USDCHF 0.9551 | GBPUSD 1.56939 | EURGBP 0.80139 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia opened higher than Fridays close however, once those near term stops were taken out of the market above 1.2670 it didn’t have the legs to break through offers to the next set of stops and we started immediately to close the gap on the charts, from just below 1.2680 we drifted down to 1.2620, with 4th of July holidays in the offing the markets are yet again quiet, we moved higher again in London topping out just above the 1.2660 level on weaker than expected PMI numbers but the market was obviously looking for worse than that, the unemployment data while in line with expectations shows another move higher against previous and the market reacted moving down in stages to below 1.2570 before finding support and trading sideways in NYK as holiday mood kicked in.
·        GBP: With the bad news currently behind us nice PMI numbers we found the Cable following Euro’s for the Asian session but moving into the London session we seem to find its legs with a nice ranging currency in thin markets, the low in early London hit 1.5642 area and moving to 1.5720 on a couple of occasions, a nice market if you nailed it.
·        JPY: Not so surprisingly USDJPY traded lower over the day moving from the early high close to 80.00 to hold around the 79.76 level then dipping again pre London on EURJPY cross selling, it tried to rally pre NYK but again ran out of steam in the 79.80 area to drop quickly on the ISM numbers to make the lows around 79.30 before slowly rising into the close.
·        AUD: A rangy day with people double guessing whether there’ll be further cuts in interest rates or a hold on them, the general consensus is 25bps but all will be revealed further down, the market initially opened higher but quickly filled in the gap on the charts as it moved from the 1.0265 area down to make the low around the 1.0212 level from there we had a small rangy day moving to a new high just below 1.0280 which seems to be the key point on the topside for the moment before declining again down the 1.0220 area before slowly rising in NYK to the close around 1.0250.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Large Manufacturers Index Q2 A -1 | C -4 | P -4Â
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index Q2 A 8 | C 7 | P 5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
00:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â TD Securities Inflation M/M Jun A -0.20% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
02:30Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun (F) A 48.2 | P 48.4
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y May A 6.20% | C 0.90% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
07:30Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SVME-PMI Jun A 48.1 | C 45 | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 45.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Jun (F) A 44.6 | C 44.8 | P 44.8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Manufacturing Jun A 48.6 | C 46.5 | P 45.9Â Â
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Unemployment Rate May A 11.10% | C 11.10% | P 11.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Manufacturing Jun A 49.7 | C 52 | P 53.5Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Prices Paid Jun A 37Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â | C 46 | P 47.5Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Spending M/M May A 0.90% | C 0.20% | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.30%Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 79.80-80.05 offers 80.10-80.40 light offers
Downside: 78.95-79.25 stop offers 78.65-78.95 decent sell stops   Â
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EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2610-1.2635 light buy stops 1.2690-1.2720 light mixed bag
Downside: 1.2550-1.2575 decent scaled sell stops 1.2515-1.2545 light 2-way interest                       Â
EURJPY:
Topside: 100.20-100.50 medium sized buy stops 100.80-101.10 small buy stops
Downside: 99.55-99.80 light mixed bag Â
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AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0265-1.0295 decent scaled buy stops 1.0295-1.0325 good buy stops
Downside: 1.0195-1.0225 light 2-way interest with a bid tone
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23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Jun A 5.9% | C 3.60% | P 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
01:00Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Non-manufacturing PMI Jun A 56.7 | P 55.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
01:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M May A 27.3% | C 5.00% | P -8.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
04:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 3.50%Â | C 3.50% | P 3.50%
CNY:
China should cut RRR to boost liquidity now-paper
China official services PMI rises to 56.7 in June
CNY/PHP:
China paper accuses Manila over S. China Sea “plot”
JPY:
Japan Jun Monetary Base Up 5.9% As Banks Hold On To BOJ Injections
Japan wages slip in May for first time in 4 Months
Finance Minister Azumi: Five-Year Reconstruction Spending Likely To Top Estimated Y19 Tln
AUD: Australia May building approvals jump 27.3%
AUD/IDR:
Australia to Give Indonesia A$1B Standby Loan Facility
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EUR: Another quiet session with the RBA in mind and 4th of July celebrations close both US traders and Asian traders stayed quiet, we moved from 1.2576 area and slowly rose towards 1.2600 level, Euro’s held on the Oz announcement looking to break through the 1.2600 level into London.
GBP: Quieter than the previous session moving steadily from 1.5684 level to trade just above 1.5700, RBA announcement had very little impact for the GBP.
JPY: Quiet start seems I’ve started every sentence the same way, we moved slowly lower from 79.50 area down to 79.44 before starting to rise with help from some fixing demand, over several hours we moved slowly up to the 79.80 level, after the RBA announcement we saw cross selling of AUDJPY.
AUD: Initially the market slowly gave ground moving down into the 1.0220’s before finding buyers willing to buy on a hold by the RBA, we moved slowly to 1.0283 before the event, while the rate came out as unchanged the statement was pretty mixed with worries continuing on Europe and China despite concerns while the currency remains high and slower growth and inflation balance out. The market moved down as opposed to the buyer’s ideas and the longs began selling the market. Moving it back down into the 1.0250’s
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Construction Jun C 52.9 | P 54.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Mortgage Approvals May C 50.0K | P 51.8KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â M4 Money Supply M/M May C 1.40% | P 1.10%
09:00    EUR       Eurozone PPI M/M May              C -0.30% | P 0.00%         Â
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y May C 2.50% | P 2.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders May C 0.10% | P -0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.26080 | 1.25761
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.820 | 79.411
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.586 | 99.890
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.95510 | 0.95306
GBP/USD Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5706 | 1.5688
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0285 | 1.0230
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8063 | 0.8024
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0171 | 1.0152
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20160 | 1.20110
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8027 | 0.8017
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Good luck
Andy