Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 79.793 | EURUSD 1.26085 | EURJPY 100.614 | AUDUSD 1.02824 | NZDUSD 0.80435 | USDCAD 1.01221 | EURCHF 1.20109 | USDCHF 0.95259 | GBPUSD 1.56919 | EURGBP 0.80349 |

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: Euro’s remained in a tight range over the past 24hrs moving from the opening levels around 1.2585 steadily rising to just above 1.2600 before declining slightly on the back of the inflation numbers coming in weaker than expected, it dropped on the opening in NYK and the lows were set at just below 1.2560 level before beginning to rise up to new highs for the day at 1.2627 before settling back to the 1.2600 level.

·         GBP: If Euro was bad, cable was very little different stuck throughout the Asian session in a 1.5687/1.5708 range, London managed to put it above 1.5710 on the opening and money supply figures moved it down to 1.5670, it remained tight with very little in it, NYK sold it down to 1.5659 for the low and then it clawed slowly back up over the remainder of the session to 1.5708 only to settle for the day in the same range it started at.

·         JPY: Asia moved USDJPY higher only to fail in the familiar area of 79.92 all the movement was in the Asian session moving into London the market was already trading around the 79.80 level from the low of 79.42, over the next 10hrs or so 18 tics on the wide is all we saw.

·         AUD: With the market being so quiet it kind of masked any reaction to the RBA statement and rate announcement, the market moved lower initially in Asia, and then started to rise as we got closer to the announcement, moving from 1.0230 area to 1.0280, on the announcement it dropped off down below 1.0260 moving into London it was little changed and NYK was the only market willing to buy it comfortably taking it up to 1.0296 before settling back to the 1.0280 level in to NYK close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

23:50     JPY         Monetary Base Y/Y Jun A 5.90% | C 3.60% | P 2.40%       

01:00     CNY        Non-manufacturing PMI Jun A 56.7 | P 55.2       

01:30     AUD       Building Approvals M/M May A 27.30% | C 5.00% | P -8.70% | R -7.60%

04:30     AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 3.50% | C 3.50% | P 3.50% 

08:30     GBP       PMI Construction Jun A 48.2 | C 52.9 | P 54.4      

08:30     GBP       Mortgage Approvals May A 51K | C 50.0K | P 51.8K         

08:30     GBP       M4 Money Supply M/M May A -0.10% | C 1.40% | P 1.10%          

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M May               A -0.50% | C -0.30% | P 0.00%   

09:00     EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y May A 2.30% | C 2.50% | P 2.60%         

14:00     USD       Factory Orders May A 0.70% | C 0.10% | P -0.60%            

For today

JPY
Topside: 80.00-80.20 (good 2-way interest), 80.60-80.80 (light buy stops) 80.90-81.10 (heavy buy stops)
Downside: 79.30-79.50 (light bids) 78.90-79.10 (light stops) 78.60-78.80 (light bids)    

EUR
Topside: 1.2650-1.2570 (medium stop buyers) 1.2680-1.2710 (light 2-way interest)
Downside: 1.2550-1.2580 (light bids) 1.2520-1.2540 (light stop sellers)

EURJPY
Topside: 100.90-101.10 (light buy stops) 101.20-101.40 (light offers))
Downside: 100.05-100.25 (light stops) AUD
Topside: 1.0290-1.0310 (light offers) 1.0315-1.0335 (2-way interest)
Downside: 1.0260-1.0280 (light scaled bids) 1.0230-1.0250 (good 2-way interest)

 

23:01     GBP       BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun A 1.10% | P 1.50%               

1:30        AUD       Retail Sales M/M May A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P -0.20% | R 0.10%

CNY:

China’s Big Four new lending drops 75 pct in June

China must take more property tightening action-paper

HSBC China June Services PMI 52.3 Vs 54.7 in May

AUD:

Australian May Retail Sales +0.5% Vs +0.3% Consensus

Australia service sector sees improvement in June-survey

JPY:

Japan Regulator To Look At Revising Insider Trading Rules

NZD:

New Zealand Home-Loan Approvals Rise at Fastest Pace Since 2005

 

·         EUR: We traded sideways for the first couple of hours but thoughts about coming rate decision in Europe has everyone edging for a further cut of 25bps so we moved from the opening area of 1.2606 down to make the low of 1.2580, since that point we’ve rallied back slightly but as we move to London the market is drifting to that 1.2580 level, to say a dull day is an understatement and summer markets are here.

·         GBP: What I can only assume was Euro selling as the market bets on easing, left the cable with nowhere to go other than follow the Euro, moving from 1.5690 area steadily to 1.5868 where we’ve stayed for the most part.

·         JPY: was caught in a quiet narrow range moving from the highs towards 79.90 down to just a touch through 79.60 before moving steadily higher for the London opening close to where we opened 79.80.

·         AUD: We opened steadily around the 1.0280 area in front of Retail sales a good number and good revision saw the market rally for the first time this month above 1.0300 at a stretch 1.0320 before dropping back to more or less where we started as the market moved into sell at what one could say are attractive levels.

·         Overall: Summer is here and it’s not likely to improve unless like last Friday some sticks a bomb under it. I’ve not seen the markets this bad since the late 80’s I hope everyone is enjoying their holidays.

 

Today’s data

Consensus = C  Previous = P Timings GMT

8:00        EUR        Eurozone PMI Services Jun (F) C 46.8 | P 46.8     

8:30        GBP       PMI Services Jun C 52.9 | P 53.3

9:00        EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May C 0.00% | P -1.00%        

9:00        EUR        Eurozone GDP Q1 (F) C 0.00% | P 0.00%                                

 

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs   Lows

EUR/USD             1.26083 | 1.25820

USD/JPY               79.890 | 79.589

EUR/JPY               100.656 | 100.230

USD/CHF             0.9545 | 0.9527

GBP/USD             1.5690 | 1.5667

AUD/USD            1.0320 | 1.0278

NZD/USD             0.8065 | 0.8037

USD/CAD             1.0142 | 1.0120

EUR/CHF              1.20119 | 1.20102

EUR/GBP             0.80380 | 0.80285

 

Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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