Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.868 | EURUSD 1.25264 | EURJPY 100.042 | AUDUSD 1.02762 | NZDUSD 0.80374 | USDCAD 1.01328 | EURCHF 1.20133 | USDCHF 0.9589 | GBPUSD 1.5592 | EURGBP 0.8033 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: The Euro declined throughout the day moving initially to the 1.2580 level finding some minor support before moving lower again. With a holiday in the US markets were thin and the break below 1.2550 was sudden and started from 1.2560 pushing to 1.2510 in a rush before bouncing to 1.2540 before drifting for the rest of the session.
·        GBP: With rate decisions in the Europe and UK both currencies suffered declines in thin markets the usual Middle East buying we’ve seen over the past few days disappeared and Cable moved steadily down from around the 1.5590 level moving to 1.5580 or just below to set the lows.
·        JPY: During Asia we had a 30 tic range on the wide with the high being 79.88 shortly after the opening, fixing supply seemed to set the selling off moving it to just below 79.65 before moving back to the opening area the rest of the day was confined between 79.70 and 79.85.
·        AUD: Better than expected retail sales moved the AUD above 1.0300 briefly but once the stops were triggered the market dropped back to its starting levels, early London sold the lows down around 1.0260 before sideways trading throughout the NYK session.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
23:01Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Jun A 1.10% | P 1.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M May A 0.50% | C 0.20% | P -0.20% | R 0.10%
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PMI Services Jun (F) A 47.1 | C 46.8 | P 46.8Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â PMI Services Jun A 51.3 | C 52.9 | P 53.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00       EUR       Eurozone Retail Sales M/M May              A 0.60% | C 0.00% | P -1.00%   Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q1 (F) A 0.00% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 80.00-80.30 medium offers 80.50-80.80 light buy stops 80.90-81.20 decent buy stopsÂ
Downside: 79.50-79.80 medium sell stops 78.90-79.20 medium sell stops 78.20-78.50 light bids
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2550-1.2580 light offers 1.2600-1.2630 medium buy stops 1.2650-1.2680 medium buy stops
Downside: 1.2480-1.2510 medium sell stops 1.2440-1.2470 medium bids 1.2400-1.2430 light bids
EURJPY
Topside: 100.20-100.50 light buy stops
Nothing much to mention on downside AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0300-1.0330 medium buy stops 1.0350-1.0380 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.0220-1.0250 medium sell stops 1.0180-1.0210 light sell stopsÂ
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1:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) May A -285M | C -500M | P -203M | R -26M
AUD: Australia May Trade Deficit A$285M Vs A$600M Consensus
JPY:
BOJ Shirakawa: Europe debt woes biggest risk to Japan
BOJ Shirakawa: To Do Utmost To Ensure Japan Financial System Stability
CNY:
China’s top papers stress growth quality over speed
China May Scrap 75% Loan-Deposit Ratio Rule For Banks – Report
China to Ease Overseas Investment Procedures for Some Firms – Official
AUD/CNY:
Australia’s Swan to push stronger Aussie-yuan trade
NZD/CNY:
Key Says China May One Day Become N.Z.’s Biggest Export Market
CAD:
Canada PM replaces minister, no major shuffle planned
·        EUR: A very slow session with very little in the way of movement and flow, a tight range with a sideways movement around 1.2525/30 area.
·        GBP: If Euro’s was quiet it’s nothing compared to Cable, a couple of attempts on 1.5700 but with no momentum it failed downside sees some minor bids 1.5580 which happens to be pretty much the range with most of it contained in 10 tic 1.5585/95. Talk of QE seems to be at the fore front of several of the banks, something to watch.
·        JPY: A bit more of effort from USDJPY than the other currencies moving from the opening steadily higher to the previous weekly highs around the 79.97 level the fixing however, saw more demand than we’ve seen over the week and moved quickly through touching the 80.10 area before the buyers were satisfied, the market stayed close the area for couple of hours before beginning to drift back to the starting area just above 79.80.
·        AUD: A steady drift from the opening area above 1.0270 trading sideways for the first few hours then moving down to the 1.0245 area before finding some bids to hold the market, from there we moved back to mid-range.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
10:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Factory Orders M/M May C 0.00% | P -1.90%Â Â Â
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target C 375B | P 325BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jun P 66.70%Â Â Â Â Â
11:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Jun C Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100K | P 133KÂ Â Â Â
12:30    EUR       ECB Press Conference                                                 Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 385K | P 386KÂ Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Jun C 53 | P 53.7Â Â Â Â Â
15:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C -1.8M | P -0.1MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.099 | 79.755
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25387 | 1.2512
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 100.332 | 99.932
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0285 | 1.0243
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8044 | 0.8011
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0137 | 1.0127
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2014 | 1.201
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9596 | 0.9581
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5599 | 1.5582
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80395 | 0.803
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Good luck
Andy