Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.424 | EURUSD 1.22498 | EURJPY 97.289 | AUDUSD 1.01906 | NZDUSD 0.79347 | USDCAD 1.02252 | EURCHF 1.20094 | USDCHF 0.98038 | GBPUSD 1.55185 | EURGBP 0.78936 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: Asia again performs in a tight range drifting a little lower from the 1.2320 down to 1.2280 area, early buying in London and all seemed well with the world, European leaders agreed the bailout package as the German courts ruled that Germany wasn’t paying, you have to smile, Euro’s having peaked above 1.2335 dropped over the next few hours to 1.2240 area and the only reason it didn’t go further is probably because we knew this was a likely scenario, once we moved there we went into a sideways market into the close. It was worth noting that Euro was sold against all major pairing particularly the EURAUD which moved into uncharted territory below 1.2000.
·        GBP: After the quiet Asian session GBP moved up on better than expected production figures, we moved from the lows of 1.5495 area to top out just short of 1.5550, and really the only blight on the day was the German court news with Euro dropping a big figure as risk was off again Cable was dragged down to 1.5480 area before finding a little bit of a bounce back to 1.5520 into the close.
·        JPY: Asia was a steady decline with a limited range moving from the 79.58 level to 79.48, EURJPY selling took USDJPY lower to 79.22 area before the EURUSD leg started to take the pressure, USDJPY managed to claw back above the 79.49 area where it stayed for most of the day closing slightly off down to the 79.40 area.
·        AUD: Having dropped from above 1.0200 during the Asian session to just above 1.0160 level, as early Europeans moved into the market they steadily bought the Oz moving it to the 1.0190 area before large EURAUD selling moved into the market with support showing in the Euro the Oz went bid moving to above 1.0240 in brisk trading, it held up for a great portion of the day before the cross selling finished and some profit taking moved into the market and we moved to the 1.0190 level again.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Sales Like-For-Like Y/Y Jun A 1.40% | C 2.00% | P 1.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Jun A -22.00% | C -16.00% | P -16.00% | R -17.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Jun A 2.20% | C 2.10% | P 2.10% | R 2.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Jun A -3 | P -2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (USD) Jun A 31.70B | C 24.00B | P 18.70BÂ
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Household Jun A 40.4 | C 40.7 | P 40.7Â Â Â Â Â Â
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May A 1.00% | C -0.20% | P 0.00% | R -0.40%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y May A -1.60% | C -2.10% | P -1.00% | R -2.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M May A 1.20% | C 0.00% | P -0.70% | R -0.80%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y May A -1.70% | C -1.90% | P -0.30% | R -2.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) May A -8.4B | C -9.0B | P -10.1BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun A 223K | C 200.0K | P 211.4KÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Jun A -0.20% | P 0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY
Topside: 79.50-79.80 mixed bias offers 79.90-80.20 buy stops 80.30-80.60 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside: 79.00-79.30 mixed 78.50-78.80 medium sell stops 78.00-78.30 light bids
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2280-1.2310 medium offers 1.2320-1.2350 light offers 1.2370-1.2400 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.2200-1.2230 medium sell stops 1.2150-1.2180 medium sell stops 1.2100-1.2130 mixed
EURJPY
Topside: 97.50-97.80 light offers 98.00-98.30 medium buy stops 98.50-98.80 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 96.80-97.20 light bids 96.40-96.70 light bids 96.00-96.30 light bids
AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0250-1.0280 medium buy stops 1.0300-1.0330 medium buy stopsÂ
Downside 1.0150-1.0180 light bids 1.0100-1.0130 light bids 1.0050-1.0080 light bids
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23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M May A 0.70% | C 0.20% | P -0.30% | R -0.20%
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI M/M Jun A -1.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.40% | R -0.70%
0:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul A 3.70% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â
AUD:
Australia’s CB says cash rate unlikely to fall near zero
Australia CB: cash rate lower to offset credit costs
Australian consumer sentiment jumps in July
Australia May Housing Finance Fell 1.2% Vs. April; Forecast +0.6%
AUD/CNY:
Australia’s Swan: To Discuss With China Possible Direct Conversion of Australian Dollar, Yuan
CNY:
Wen Says Boosting Investment Now Key to Stabilizing China Growth
S&P Says China’s Banking Profitability Will Be Hit In 2013
EUR:
Euro zone in very dangerous situation-Finnish premier tells paper
JPY:
Japan June wholesale prices fall 1.3% YoY
JPY/CNY:
Japan protests Chinese ships entry into waters near disputed isles
NZD:
NZ accommodation demand falls in May
USD:
Peregrine files for Chapter 7 bankruptcy
·        EUR: Another quiet day in Asia with Euro’s holding above 1.2245 but making very little headway in the early part but rising steadily after the Oz consumer sentiment number to touch 1.2266 before holding the mid 1.2250’s into London.
·        GBP: A mirror picture of the action in the Euro, holding above 1.5510 during the session and touching 1.5530 late in the session only to fall back to below 1.5520 on slow and thin trading.
·        JPY: Tight range with very little happening slight supply for the fixing before reaching towards the bottom end of the 79.20’s rising steadily into the 79.30’s and holding steady at that stage into the London session.
·        AUD: Early part of the session again fairly quiet with levels holding above the 1.0180, but gaining some traction during mid-session touching 1.0212, good sentiment and EURAUD selling helped the Oz to stay above the 1.0200 level for the latter part of the session.
·        Overall: Another dull day in paradise with slow market as Europe limps along and comments from ILO (International Institute for Labour Studies) that Europe needs to move to job creation to reverse heavy unemployment as the risk of contagion could spill into the global economy.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (F) C -0.10% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (F) C 1.70% | P 1.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) May C -0.60B | P -0.37BÂ Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May C -$48.4B | P -$50.1BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories May C 0.30% | PÂ 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories C -1.4M | P -4.3MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Minutes
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.43 | 79.238
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2267 | 1.2246
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.38 | Â 97.092
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0213 | 1.0179
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7954 | 0.7932
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0231 | 1.0211
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20108 | 1.20092
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9806 | 0.9791
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5532 | 1.5511
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79005 | 0.7894
Good luck
Andy