Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.755 | EURUSD 1.22389 | EURJPY 97.612 | AUDUSD 1.02517 | NZDUSD 0.79555 | USDCAD 1.02002 | EURCHF 1.20086 | USDCHF 0.98117 | GBPUSD 1.55036 | EURGBP 0.78942 |
Â
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: With Asia performing as usual, we moved into the London session with a German 10yr auction being well supported Euro’s climbed to just below 1.2300 but found decent resistance on top keeping a lid on the move, from that point it was one disappointment after another, Spanish PM announced austerity measures only for rioting to kick off in the capital it would seem that any announcement is met with this reaction, Euro’s declined and then USD buying started as trade balance was below previous in the US dipping the market to 1.2230 and then inventories stayed steady for another move lower to test below 1.2220, we recovered into the close somewhat but very limited. FOMC minutes helped with the USD rise but mention of stimulus deflected some of the move.
·        GBP: Cable seemed well supported throughout the day moving up above the 1.5570 level for a good portion of the day in the face of Euro selling however, while EURGBP moved to below 78.75 we saw support moving in to the pair and GBP was forced lower and the Euro continued to be forced lower, Cable moved down to below 1.5500 only to recover on the close.
·        JPY: With the FOMC commentary USDJPY broke out of its Asian and early London range of 79.14/44 on a quiet session, moving from the 79.20 level to hit 79.75 in a short space of time while it fell back slightly it continued to hold and push back up to the level for the close.
·        AUD: Held in Asia and slowly moved up above the 1.0200 level continual EURAUD selling after we saw the break through 1.2000 moved AUD above 1.0240 during the London session peaking at 1.0280 before running into resistance as fundamental issues kicked in, the market held around the 1.0250 area for the balance of the session.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Tertiary Industry Index M/M May A 0.70% | C 0.20% | P Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â -0.30% | R -0.20%
23:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI M/M Jun A -1.30% | C -0.40% | P -0.40% | R -0.70%
00:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Consumer Confidence Jul A 3.70% | C 0.30%Â Â Â Â
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Jun (F) A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Jun (F) A 1.70% | C 1.70% | P 1.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) May A -0.8B | C -0.60B | P -0.37BÂ Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance May A -48.7B | C -$48.4B | P -$50.1BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Inventories May A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -4.7M | C -1.4M | P -4.3MÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
18:00    USD      FOMC Minutes                                              Â
For today
JPY
Topside: 79.80-80.00 two-way interest 80.10-80.30 medium buy stops 80.50-80.70 medium buy stops
Downside: 79.00-79.30 light bids 78.70-78.90 light sell stops
EUR
Topside: 1.2290-1.2330Â Â light scaled offers 1.2340-1.2360Â light sell stops
Downside: 1.2180-1.2200 medium sell stops 1.2100-1.2130Â good 2-way interest
EURJPY
Topside: 98.10-98.40 light buy stops 99.15-99.35Â light offers
Downside: 96.50-96.70Â light bids
AUD
Topside: 1.0270-1.0290 medium buy stops
Downside: 1.0200-1.0220Â light bids 1.0170-1.0190 medium sell stops 1.0145-1.0165Â light bids
Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul A 3.30% | P 2.30%Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jun A -27.0K | C 0.0K | P 38.9KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 5.20% | C 5.20% | P 5.10%Â Â Â
JPY:
BOJ Tweaks Asset Purchase Program, Keeps Call Rate Range Unchanged
Finance Minister Azumi Calls For “Early” Achievement Of BOJ Inflation Goal
AUD:
Australia employment takes surprise fall in June
Australia’s PM Says Jobless Rate Low By Global Standards
Hard to argue Australian dollar over-valued RBA
USD:
IMF Lagarde: U.S. Fiscal Cliff Poses Downside Risk To Global Economy
AUD/NZD:
Australia’s Telstra to sell New Zealand operations to Vodafone
CNY:
China Q2 economic growth around 7.5% Â – governent think-tank
China State Council Scholar: 2012 GDP Growth Likely Around 8%
China State Council Scholar: Unlikely to See Deflation This Year
China National Pension Fund: Will Boost Investment in Public Housing
CNY/USD:
Top China paper slams Clinton’s democracy comments
Asia:
ADB’s Kuroda sees Asian growth less than forecast
NZD:
NZ Manufacturing Activity Eases In June From May But Still Expanding
NZ consumer confidence edges up in July – ANZ survey
Â
·        EUR: Another quiet session for the Euro with a little bit of movement topping out 1.2249 but having difficulty to move further an article in the FT stating that new proposed rules to govern Funds would increase the costs dramatically undermining the principles of the EU itself. The Euro reacted to the article and dropped to below 1.2225, before bouncing back.
·        GBP: Was very quiet holding a tight range between 1.5495 and 1.5516, neither news or sentiment effected the market as the GBP is somewhat remote from the FT article if we were to move out of the EU and such a threat to the banking and insurance sectors would be cause enough to warrant it.
·        JPY: USDJPY started off in a neutral trend moving steadily lower in front of the BoJ announcement while no change in the rate asset purchase fund was expanded to 45trln Yen sending the market higher from the 79.50 area to touch 79.97 before dropping back a little slow than it moved up.
·        AUD: Was slow going hanging around the 1.0250 area until the labour numbers showed an expected rise causing the AUD to drop lower hitting 1.0180 quickly,  on the whole they seem to be in a little bit of a pickle with consumer inflation expectations rising 1% while unemployment is rising not an enviable position to be in. Â
·        Overall: While volumes showed an increase and news helped to move the markets the summer doldrums continue. Â
Â
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
8:00       EUR       ECB Monthly Bulletin                                                    Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May C 0.00% | P -0.80%Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M May C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jun C -1.60% | P -1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims C 374K | P 374KÂ Â Â Â Â
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 39BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Monthly Budget Statement Jun C -109.7BÂ | P -124.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.97 | 79.434
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22481 | 1.22237
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.902 | 97.25
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0260 | 1.0175
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7979 | 0.7922
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0214 | 1.0191
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2010 | 1.2008
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9824 | 0.9802
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5519 | 1.5497
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7897 | 0.78855
Good luck
Andy