Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.307 | EURUSD 1.22038 | EURJPY 96.786 | AUDUSD 1.01388 | NZDUSD 0.79028 | USDCAD 1.0189 | EURCHF 1.20089 | USDCHF 0.98403 | GBPUSD 1.54291 |EURGBP 0.79096 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: After the quiet Asian session there was little improvement In the Euro as sentiment remained the same even though the IP numbers seemed very pleasing however, the fact that ECB deposits fell 483b only to find 466b in the current account would suggest rather than doing anything they are just shuffling it around, needless to say the market dropped from above 1.2220 down to 1.2170 area before finding support, the market moved slowly and sideways from that point recovering some of the losses but although we managed to move above 1.2200 it was not overly convincing.
·        GBP: Dragged along by the Euro with several different stories affecting the Euro and thus the GBP we moved from above the 1.5500 level to briefly trade below 1.5400 but generally holding above 1.5420.
·        JPY: The Asian session saw some movement on the back of increased stimulus however, it was short lived and from the highs above 79.90 the market traded lower over the remainder of the day holding between 79.40/20.
·        AUD:  With a mix of data one suggesting a rate cut and one suggesting a hike, the Oz found itself in a strange place, one suggests the unemployment rate is the one to worry about and the market took the same view Oz moved from above 1.0240 to 1.0180 immediately after the figures but continued to trend slowly lower over the course of the day, we eventually found a bottom just above the 1.0100 area and held for a period of time before moving slowly up to the 1.0140 level where we went out at the end of the day.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
01:00Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Jul A 3.30% | P 2.30%
01:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Jun A -27.0K | C 0.0K | P 38.9K
01:30Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Jun A 5.20% | C 5.20% | P 5.10%
03:50Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Rate Decision A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.10%
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M May A 0.60% | C 0.00% | P -0.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M May A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Jun A -2.70% | C -1.60% | P -1.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims A 350K | C 374K | P 374K
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 33B | C 27B | P 39B
18:00    USD      Monthly Budget Statement Jun A -60.0B | C -109.7B | P -124.6B                              Â
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 79.30-79.55 light buy stops 79.55-79.80 light 2-way interest 80.00-80.30 good scaled buy stops
Downside: 78.80-79.05 good bids 78.45-78.80 marginal bids Â
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EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2240-1.2270 light scaled offers 1.2270-1.2300 small offers 1.2300-1.2330 light mixed bag
Downside: 1.2125-1.2155 good 2-way interest 1.2080-1.2110 heavy sell stops                          Â
EURJPY:
Topside: 97.05-97.40 decent buy stops 97.40-97.70 light buy stops
Downside: 95.80-96.10 light mixed bag                           Â
AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0155-1.0180 light offers 1.0185-1.0220 small scaled offers
Downside: 1.0080-1.0105 marginal bids 1.0050-1.0080 light 2-way interest
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2:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Real GDP YTD Y/Y Q2 A 7.60% | C 7.90% | P 8.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
2:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Jun A 9.50% | C 9.80% | P 9.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
2:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Investment Y/Y Jun A 20.40% | C 20.00% | P 20.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
2:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Jun A 13.70% | C 13.50% | P 13.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
4:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M May (F) A -3.40% | C-3.10% | P -3.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CNY:
China Q2 GDP up 7.6% vs. yr. ago, slowest since Q1 2009
Government Official: 2Q GDP Growth of 7.6% ‘Good Enough’ in Comparison With Other Countries
China says consumption, investment drove H1 growth
EUR:
Moody’s downgrades Italy by two notches, warns might cut further
SGD:
Singapore Q2 GDP shrinks q/q; manufacturing weak
JPY:
Japan Finance Minister Hints At Intervention Vs. Any Sharp Yen Rises
Japan mutual fund value jump on inflows into ETFs
Japan revised May industrial output down 3.4% MoM
JPY/EUR:
Azumi: Europe Capable of Resolving Current Problems, Earning Market Trust
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·        EUR: The market dipped in late NYK but started to recover at the start of Asia, we traded to 1.2210 before news from Moody’s that Italy’s government bonds were to be downloaded to BAA2 from A3, this sent the market down to 1.2180 which is always a favourite support/resistance area, while the subject of rating agencies comes under review doubting their impartiality in particular, the fact that they mentioned a deterioration in the country’s economic prospects added to the weakness, from the lows we regained the 1.2200 level but as per Asia were unable to move convincingly to the topside being held in check between 1.2210-15
·        GBP: A tight range with Cable moving to 1.5416 before finding some support with the Italian news we saw some small safe haven flows and EURGBP was sold, Cable moved up to its highs of 1.5444 and traded sideways in a 10 point range towards London.
·        JPY: A very tight range with more focus on the Euro with the Italian news, USDJPY moved up 10 tics from the opening touching 79.39 before the IP numbers hit, once they entered the market the USDJPY moved back down to the previous levels in very quiet trading.
·        AUD: The Oz found some strength after renewed EURAUD cross selling appeared in the market, Oz moved from the 1.0125 are moving up to 1.0170 levels on the Italian downgrade. While the range was respectable the volumes were average.
Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
7:15       CHF       Combined PPI M/M Jun C -0.40% | P -0.20%       Â
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Combined PPI Y/Y Jun C -2.20% | P -2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Jun C -0.60% | P -1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Jun C -0.40% | P 0.70%Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Jun C 2.60% | P 2.70%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:55Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Jul (P) C 73.5 | P 73.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.40 | 79.245
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.22175 | 1.2181
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 96.95 | 96.62
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0175 | 1.0123
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7924 | 0.7889
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0205 | 1.0181
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20098 | 1.2008
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9855 | 0.9833
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5444 | 1.5419
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7914 | 0.7902
Have a good weekend
Andy