Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 78.857 | EURUSD 1.22724 | EURJPY 96.781 | AUDUSD 1.0249 | NZDUSD 0.79833 | USDCAD 1.01498 | EURCHF 1.20098 | USDCHF 0.97858 | GBPUSD 1.56358 | EURGBP 0.78489 |
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Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: After a dull Asian session the Euro went quickly in decline with little improvement in the economic data and the continuing wrangling and comments out of the Eurozone, its only saving grace was poor retail sales from the US turning the USD lower for the day moving the Euro from its lows below 1.2180 again, to trade back above 1.2280 on the day before closing out around that area.
·        GBP: With very little news in the UK we were caught by the ebbs and flows of the Euro, with a chart looking very similar in pattern to the Euro we saw it move of its lows of 1.5520 to top out above 1.5650 before settling slightly lower into the close.
·        JPY: USDJPY continued to trade lower with JPY finding safe haven flows, breaking down below the 79.00 area with the US data helping it along moving from its opening highs 79.25 area to below 78.70
·        AUD: Cross JPY selling during Asia forced the Oz lower to 1.0213 area before finding some traction it held above 1.0200 through the London session before the US data kicked in moving it back up to above the 1.0250 area on a quiet day.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Q/Q Q1 A 1.40% | C -8.10% | P 7.90% | R 3.60%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Q1 A -3.90% | C 0.00% | P -1.40% | R -2.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jun A 2.40% | C 2.40% | P 2.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone CPI – Core Y/Y Jun A 1.60% | C 1.60% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) May A 6.3B | C 5.0B | P 6.2B | R 4.5B
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) May A 26.11B | C 13.51B | P 10.20BÂ Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Jul A 7.4 | C 4 | P 2.29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Jun A -0.50% | C 0.20% | P -0.20%Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Jun A -0.40% | C 0.00% | P -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories May A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 79.00-79.30 marginal buy stops 79.30-79.55 small offers 79.55-79.85 light 2-way interest
Downside: 78.55-78.80 decent bids 78.25-78.55 heavy sell stops    Â
EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2285-1.2310 light buy stops 1.2310-1.2340 decent staggered offers
Downside: 1.2235-1.2265 marginal bids 1.2160-1.2190 good 2-way interest 1.2120-1.2155 medium sized sell stops
EURJPY:
Topside: 97.40-97.70 light buy stops
Downside: 95.80-96.10 good 2-way interest AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0245-1.0265 marginal buy stops 1.0265-1.0290 light mixed
Downside: 1.0200-1.0235 small bids 1.0150-1.0180 marginal bids
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q2 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
22:45Â Â Â Â NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q2 A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 1.60%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUD:
RBA Says Hefty Rate Cuts, Solid GDP Kept Rates on Hold In July
JPY:
Japan Azumi: speculators pushing up yen, doesn’t reflect fundamentals
JPY/KRW:
Japan Foreign Minister: Watching N Korean Developments Closely
CNY:
China 2012 H1 FDI down 3% YoY to $59.1 bln MOFCOM
PBOC Official: Interest-Rate Liberalization Aims at Long-Term Deposits -Â Report
Fitch: China to Achieve ‘Soft Landing,’ But Rebalancing Delayed
China to gradually free up bank deposit rate -paper
Banking Official: China Needs Fiscal Support as Credit Loosening Effects Wane
SGD:
Singapore June Non-Oil Exports Rise 6.8% on Year; Beat Estimates
Singapore’s Temasek to sell $1.7 bln in US-dollar bonds
EUR:
Moody’s downgrades Italian banks – outlook negative
NZD:
NZ Q2 consumer inflation tame, rates seen on hold
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·        EUR: A quiet session with the Euro beginning to dip lower from above the 1.2270 area moving steadily into the mid-60’s before the RBA minutes were released, that suggested a hold on any more drops in rates and so with the Oz the Euro rose moving quickly above 1.2310 against the original flow but struggling to make much headway once it moved there.
·        GBP: No surprise here with very little happening in the market apart from the RBA so cable tagged along with the Oz and Euro moving from the 1.5625 area to trade above 1.5670 before settling down into the 60’s for the run into the London session.
·        JPY: USDJPY had a very quiet session with very little to write home about, some selling before the fixing only for some to find that there was demand and very little supply as rumours suggested. Having touched below 78.80 it rose to touch 79.00 briefly before going into a sideways market around the 78.90.
·        AUD: The RBA stated that having eased monetary policy they didn’t think a cut was necessary on the last announcement giving the market some idea that further cuts are on the back burner, with little more to indicate any further cuts the cross buying kicked in moving Oz from 1.0240 area to trade above the 1.0300 level where it has held for several hours in sideways trading.
·        Overall: Quiet until the RBA minutes entered the market, improvements in the equity markets as China moves and tries to aim for a softer landing. A busy day ahead with the with plenty of data with early eyes on the ZEW numbers and Bernanke statement later.
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Today’s data
Consensus = C Previous = P Timings GMT
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C -0.10% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun C 2.80% | P 2.80%Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jun C 2.50% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jun C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jun C 3.00% | P 3.10%Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul C -20 | P -16.9Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul C 30 | P 33.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
9:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul C -18.3 | P -20.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M May C 0.60% | A -0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun C 0.00% | P -0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun C 1.60% | P 1.70%Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jun C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â Â Â
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jun C 2.20% | P 2.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:00Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision C 1.00% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows May C 45.7B | P $25.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jun C 0.30% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:15    USD      Capacity Utilization Jun C 79.20% | P 79.00%     Â
14:00    USD      Fed Bernanke Testimony to Senate                                                       Â
14:00    USD      NAHB Housing Market Index Jul C 30 | P 29         Â
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Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.00 | 78.792
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2314 | 1.2265
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.225 | 96.65
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0310 | 1.0238
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8005 | 0.7955
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0155 | 1.0129
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20114 | 1.20094
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9790 | 0.97549
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5677 | 1.5626
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7854 | 0.78475
Have a good weekend
Andy