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Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

Harry Hindsight

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR: We saw yields on Spanish bonds dipping for the first time in weeks, ZEW results dropped but not as far as expected helping the Euro to keep the gains from the Asian session trading towards the 1.2320 but failing to move through the level. Inflation numbers out of the US turned the USD higher against most currencies forcing the Euro to drop again to below the 1.2200 level before recovering over the balance of the session, moving back to just short of the 1.2300 level into the close.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBP: We saw some buying during Asia moving the Cable up from the 1.5620 level to just below 1.5680 from there it was a steady drift lower. Into the NYK session, when US data was released the Cable dropped but not so far moving from the 1.5620 level down to just below 1.5560 before recovering into the close.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY: A steady climb from the lows in Asia below 78.80 moving back above the 79.00 to put a 30 tic range on the day in slow going.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUD: Having moved from the lows of 1.0240 area to above the 1.0300 level during Asia it struggled into London to keep above 1.0300 and moved steadily lower to the 1.0280 level once the US data kicked in moving it back to the low and then like the other currencies it moved steadily up to trade just below 1.0320 into the close in NYK.

Yesterday’s premiership results

ActualÂ = AÂ |Â Consensus = CÂ |Â Previous = PÂ |Â Revised = RÂ

NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Q/Q Q2 A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Q2 A 1.00% | C 1.10% | P 1.60%Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A -0.40% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A 2.40% | C 2.80% | P 2.80%

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Core CPI Y/Y Jun A 2.10% | C 2.50% | P 2.20%Â Â Â Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI M/M Jun A -0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RPI Y/Y Jun A 2.80% | C 3.00% | P 3.10%

EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul A -19.6 | C -20 | P -16.9Â

EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German ZEW (Current Situation) Jul A 21.1 | C 30 | P 33.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone ZEW (Economic Sentiment) Jul A -22.3 | C -18.3 | P -20.1Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M May A -0.40% | C 0.60%Â | P -0.80%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Jun A 0% | C 0.00% | P -0.30%

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Jun A 1.70% | C 1.60% | P 1.70%

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Jun A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Jun A 2.20% | C 2.20% | P 2.30%Â Â Â Â Â

CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Rate Decision A 1.00% | C 1.00% | P 1.00%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows May A Â 55.0B | C 45.7B | P $25.6BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Jun A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%Â Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Jun A 78.90% | C 79.20% | P 79.00%Â

USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAHB Housing Market Index Jul A 35 | C 30 | P 29Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

For today

USDJPY
Topside: 79.20-79.50 light buy stopsÂ 79.70-80.00 light offers 80.00-80.30 medium buy stopsÂ Â
Downside: 78.70-79.00 decent sell stopsÂ 78.30-78.60 decent sell stopsÂ 77.70-78.00 light bidsÂ
EURUSD
Topside: 1.2300-1.2330 light offersÂ 1.2340-1.2370 medium offersÂ 1.2380-1.2410 light buy stopsÂ
Downside: 1.2230-1.2360 decent bidsÂ 1.2190-1.2220 light bidsÂ 1.2150-1.2180 decent sell stopsÂ EURJPY
Topside: 97.30-97.60 medium buy stopsÂ 97.70-98.00 light buy stops 98.20-98.50 light buy stopsÂ Â
Downside: 96.00-96.50 light bidsÂ 95.70-96.00 light sell stopsÂ

AUDUSD
Topside: 1.0320-1.0350 light offers 1.0370-1.0400 light offersÂ
Downside: 1.0250-1.0280 light bids 1.0200-1.0230 light bids 1.0170-1.0200 medium sell stops

0:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M May A 0.80% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â

JPY:

BOJ Minutes: A Few Members Say BOJ Shouldn’t Rule Out Any Policy Options In Advance

Japan Econ Min: Economy Will Suffer Negative Impact if Yen Rises

Govt may delay financial support for Tepco Nikkei

CNY:

China June home prices down 1.5 % YoY -Reuters calculations

China’s Wen vows job creation as growth slows paper

State Researcher: China Needs Infrastructure, Property Lending – Report

AUD:

Australia May Westpac – MI Leading Index +1.6% Annualized

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EUR: Another quite day in Asia some minor buying following the rise in Oz moving from the opening levels of 1.2300 area to touch above 1.2306 before steadily drifting off again into the 1.2280’s with very little to go on.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBP: Similar story with the Cable with little to go on the market slowly moved up from the opening just below 1.5650 to trade just above 1.5668 before slowly slipping back to the starting area.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â JPY: In a tight range moving from the opening 79.03 area to 79.15 before supply for the fixing pushed it back down to just below 79.02, AUDJPY buying was the most active pairing in the run up to the fix, but we remain mired for the moment.

Â·Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â AUD: Even Oz was quiet dropping off from the opening to 1.0296 Leading index helped the market to rise to its highs just above the 1.0324 level before selling kicked in and the Oz tumbled back to its starting point and has ranged 1.0297-1.0310 since.

Today’s data

ConsensusÂ = CÂ PreviousÂ = P Timings GMT

08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE MinutesÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Jun C 5.0K | P 8.1KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Jun C 4.90% | P 4.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate 3M May C 8.20% | P 8.20%Â Â Â Â Â Â

09:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ZEW (Expectations) Jul P -43.4Â Â Â

11:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 13) P -2.10%Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Jun C 745K | P 708KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits Jun C 765K | P 784KÂ Â Â Â Â Â

14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed Bernanke Testimony to HouseÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

14:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoC Monetary Policy Report Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -4.7MÂ Â Â

18:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Fed’s Beige BookÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â

Ranges as of 6am London time

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â HighsÂ Â Lows

USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 79.16 | 79.01

EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23066 | 1.2276

EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 97.32 | 97.04

AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0326 | 1.0295

NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7995 | 0.7961

USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0129 | 1.0116

EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2014 | 1.201

USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9783 | 0.9762

GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5668 | 1.5644

EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7855 | 0.7846

Have a good day

Andy

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