Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

NYK Close

USDJPY 80.355 | EURUSD 1.2815 | EURJPY 102.974 | AUDUSD 1.04342 | NZDUSD 0.82728 | USDCAD 0.99208 | EURCHF 1.20817 | USDCHF 0.94283 | GBPUSD 1.60006 | EURGBP 0.80096 |

 

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: Hurry up and wait syndrome kicks in as the market stalls awaiting the US election results and this Thursdays ECB meeting (another one) having drifted sideways in Asia, London took it down below 1.2770 for the second day indifferent Euro numbers and an ignored factory order drop in Germany saw the market rising slightly from this point on and we managed to climb back above the 1.2800 level during Late London and early NYK to finish the day in positive territory albeit on a quiet day with reasonable volumes as people position themselves to second guess the results of the US election.

·         GBP: The initial gains in Cable during Asia were countered by poor production numbers although continuing moving the market from the highs just below 1.6000 to below the 1.5970 area, which seemed less of a move than one would have expected however, all eyes remain fixed on the US so movement against the USD has been fairly stable and during the NYK session we saw Cable begin to rise to make highs above the 1.6000 level and hold around the area into the close.

·         JPY: With the minor selling in the Asian session of Euro we saw USDJPY dipping lower as EURJPY cross took some pressure, forcing the USDJPY leg down below 80.00 once London moved in we reversed the Asian move as they pushed it slowly to the starting area around the 80.25/30 NYK renewed the buying to take it briefly above the 80.40 level, with very little in the way of news today from Japan we saw a rather uneventful session.

·         AUD: It was all about the RBA announcement and even then we’ve had more volatile days with expected announcements in this case the market should have been a little more surprised by the no change announcement as most predicted a cut however, from the opening levels of 1.0360 we moved quickly above 1.0420 on no change and we’ve basically stayed above that level but neither the London or NYK markets were willing to test the market to the topside further and we end the day around the 1.0430 level having peaked above 1.0440.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

GBP       BRC Sales Like-For-Like YoY Oct A -0.10% | C 1.30% | P 1.50%      

AUD       House Price Index Q/Q Q3 A 0.30% | C 1.00% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%

AUD       RBA Rate Decision A 3.25% | C 3.00% | P 3.25% 

JPY         Leading Index Sep (P) A 91.7 | C 91.8 | P 93.2     

CHF        SECO Consumer Confidence Oct A -17 | C -21 | P -17      

EUR        Eurozone PMI Services Oct (F) A 46 | C 46.2 | P 46.2        

GBP       Industrial Production M/M Sep A -1.70% | C -0.60% | P -0.50%  

GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A -2.60% | C -1.60% | P -1.20%      

GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Sep A 0.10% | C -0.80% | P -1.10%         

GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep A -1.00% | C 0.40% | P -1.20%             

EUR        Eurozone PPI M/M Sep A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.90%       

EUR        Eurozone PPI Y/Y Sep A 2.70% | C 2.60% | P 2.70%           

EUR        German Factory Orders M/M Sep A -3.30% | C -0.50% | P -1.30%             

CAD       Ivey PMI Oct A 58.3 | C 58.3 | P 60.4       

GBP       NIESR GDP Estimate Oct  A 0.50% | P 0.80%        

For today

USDJPY 
Topside: 80.50-80.80 light offers 80.80-81.10 large buy stops  81.20-81.50 medium buy stops 
Downside: 80.00-80.30 light bids 79.70-80.00 medium bids 79.30-79.60 medium bids 79.00-79.30 medium sell stops 

EURUSD 
Topside: 1.2870-1.2900 light offers  1.2900-1.2930 light offers 
Downside: 1.2770-1.2800 light sell stops 1.2720-1.2750 medium sell stops 1.2680-1.2710 medium sell stops 

EURJPY 
Topside: 103.20-103.30 light offers  103.50-103.80 light offers  104.00-104.30 medium offers 
Downside: 102.00-102.30 medium sell stops  AUDUSD 
Topside: 1.0470-1.0480 medium offers  1.0490-1.0510 medium offers  1.0520-1.0550 – medium offers 
Downside: 1.0390-1.0420 medium bids 1.0350-1.0380 medium sell stops 1.0300-1.0330 medium bids

 

USD:

Obama Wins Re-election with Defeat of Romney in Crucial States

EUR/USD:

EU Juncker: Usually Easier to Work With US Presidents in Their Second Term

JPY:

Japan LDP Abe: BOJ should ease policy till 3% inflation achieved

Japan Maehara: powerful easing needed in deflation fight

Japan October foreign reserves fall to $1.274 trln

CNY:

China banks face soaring sour loans in 2012 paper

China State Economist Calls for Wider Yuan Trading Band

AUD:

Australian Construction Contracts in October

NZD:

RBNZ Governor Doesn’t Expect New Zealand Dollar to Weaken in Short Term

NZ debt levels, current account deficit pose problems -RBNZ

N.Z.’s Wheeler Says Financial Market Sentiment Has Improved

 

 

·         EUR: All about the USD and the election over the pond as the early results came out Romney took the lead and the Euro started to wilt moving to the lows and pushing down to 1.2780’s as the minutes ticked by and Obama started to pull back each state he took saw a leap in the Euro taking it back to the starting area then another leap to above 1.2840 then the next set of results saw him 12 points off the target and we pushed up against the offers at 1.2870 and the final result came out, all in all I think it’s what most expected even if the market doesn’t particularly like the uncertainty that another 4yrs of Obama brings with it set against an almost unchanged senate of Democrats.

·         GBP: An almost Identical picture on the charts as the Euro, early selling took us down to the 1.5970 level only to see the pull back in the election for Obama and the USD dropped leaving Cable rising quickly above 1.6000 touching above 1.6030 before coming to a stop.

·         JPY: Early selling of EURJPY cross didn’t help the USDJPY forcing the pair down below 80.00 again, with a lot of talk about technical looking for a break higher we saw the market turn in the face of USD selling and move back marginally above the 80.00 but unable to take back the other half of its losses from the opening.

·         AUD: As with the others all about the US election more than anything else, we saw early selling pushing the Oz towards the 1.0410 level but once the Obama results started to hit and it was over bar the shouting Oz reversed quickly and started forging ahead moving towards the 1.0460 during Tokyo lunch. For the moment we look to be holding at the level with some EURAUD selling of the cross appearing late on.

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

GBP       BRC Shop Price Index YoY Oct A 1.50% | P 1.00%               

08:00     CHF        Foreign Currency Reserves Oct C 432.0B | P 429.5B         

08:15     CHF        CPI M/M Oct C 0.10% | P 0.30%

08:15     CHF        CPI Y/Y Oct C -0.20% | P -0.40% 

10:00     EUR        Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep C 0.00% | P 0.10%           

11:00     EUR        German Industrial Production Y/Y Sep C -0.40% | P -1.40%           

15:30     USD       Crude Oil Inventories C 1.8M | P -2.0M

Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs   Lows

USD/JPY               80.41 | 79.81

EUR/USD             1.2876 | 1.2783

EUR/JPY               103.18 | 102.285

AUD/USD            1.0461 | 1.0410

NZD/USD             0.8282 | 0.8237

USD/CAD             0.9937 | 0.9893

EUR/CHF              1.2090 | 1.20785

USD/CHF             0.94495 | 0.93895

GBP/USD             1.6037 | 1.5969

EUR/GBP             0.8031 | 0.8005

 

 Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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