Andy Harrison
Good morning,
NYK Close
USDJPY 79.99 | EURUSD 1.27713 | EURJPY 102.157 | AUDUSD 1.04112 | NZDUSD 0.82551 | USDCAD 0.99669 | EURCHF 1.20656 | USDCHF 0.9448 | GBPUSD 1.59852 | EURGBP 0.79886 |
Harry Hindsight
·        EUR: As election results filtered through during the Asian session the USD fluctuated early results putting Obama behind left the Euro lower trading down towards 1.2780 however, as the coastal results came in and Obama jumped back in front the USD weakened across the board and we had successive leaps higher before pushing through offers around the 1.2870 level the resistance to the move up held into early London, this time the market didn’t ignore the figures out of Germany as YoY industrial production slumped for the second month and vastly below the expected levels turned the market Euro dropped down to 1.2830 European commission then slashed forecasts for the region to -0.4% and +0.1% for next year and as unrest and uncertainty rises in Greece again the NYK market started to jump on an already slumping Euro moving the market down to 1.2740 area in early trading before stabilising and holding the 1.2760 level in an ever tightening session.
·        GBP: Not all that different to the Euro picture to be honest with no data to speak of the Cable was tugged along with the Euro, the market continues to witter on about QE with positive data its less likely for the BoE to use the tool anyway, we moved initially lower on the US election results touching 1.5970 early on to rise quickly to above 1.6040 as Obama passed the 270 mark, while the Euro movement was sharper and more inclined to touch below 1.5960 before beginning to rise slightly on safe have flows to the 1.5990. EURGBP cross fell to below the 0.8000 level on strong selling during the session and we finish the day below the 0.7990 level.
·        JPY: With the election and fall in Euro’s USDJPY leg suffered in particular, moving from above the 80.40 level we dropped in early trading to just above 79.80 as Obama was re-elected we moved back up to the starting levels only for the dip in the Euro to force USDJPY lower as cross selling picked up and moving the cross from above 103.20 all the way down to test below 102.00, the USDJPY fell back to trade below the 79.80 level and struggled for the remainder of the session to claw back above the 80.00 level to put paid to technical guru’s who were all calling a move higher, maybe next week hey.
·        AUD: USD dominated throughout the early parts of the session and tied at the hip with the Euro, the Oz put in some strong moves higher during Asia pushing from the lows around 1.0410 and touching above 1.0480 before meeting some medium term sellers willing to take on positions with recent all time highs not to far, nothing has really changed economically, with China recovering according to recent data and no real fall out of exports for the Ozzies, no data left the currency open to the vagaries of European turmoil and the election and having pushed higher the drop of the Euro dragged the Oz with it and we started London from the highs and dropping steadily all through the session, as with the Euro once it had surpassed the opening levels on the near term support stopped it from slipping through the 1.0400 level and we hold just above the level as we move out of NYK.
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Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index YoY Oct A 1.50% | P 1.00%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Foreign Currency Reserves Oct A 424.4B | C 432.0B | P 429.5BÂ Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Oct A 0.10% | C 0.10% | P 0.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Oct A -0.20% | C -0.20% | P -0.40%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Sep A -0.20% | C 0.00% | P 0.10% | R 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production Y/Y Sep A -1.80% | C -0.40% | P -1.40%Â Â Â Â Â
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 1.8M | C 1.8M | P -2.0M
For today
USDJPY:
Topside: 80.05-80.35 light buy stops 80.40-80.70 light offers
Downside: 79.60-79.80 medium sell stops 79.30-79.60 light sell stops EURUSD:
Topside: 1.2780-1.2815 light mix 1.2820-1.2855 light offers 1.2860-1.2895 medium sized offers
Downside: 1.2735-1.2750 light bids 1.2700-1.2735 decent sell stops 1.2670-1.2700 light sell stops
EURJPY:
Topside: 102.90-103.20 light offers
Nothing significant on downside AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0430-1.0460 medium offers 1.0460-1.0495 light offers
Downside: 1.0370-1.0390 light mix 1.0340-1.0370 light mix 1.0300-1.0335 light bids
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AUD:
Australia employment beats forecasts in Oct
NZD:
New Zealand jobless rate jumps to 7.3% in Q3
Moody’s says comfortable with NZ’s triple-A rating
CNY:
China’s Hu Calls for Political Reform, Better ‘People’s Democracy’
China Statistics Chief Says Data to Add Confidence on Growth
China to speed financial reform, foreign investment-Hu
USD/CNY:
China submarines soon to carry nukes, draft US report says
JPY:
Japan Current Account Surplus Falls Sharply, Machinery Orders Down
Japan’s service sector sentiment worsens in October
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·        EUR: Early Asian buying after the Greek parliament agreed by 153 votes for further austerity measures, moving the market from the opening 1.2765 area to a high above 1.2780 however, it was short lived and we saw fresh selling appearing at those levels triggering weak stop losses on the way back down moving rapidly to just below 1.2750 before finding some minor support even so we were unable to move back up above the 1.2770 area and struggled for a couple of hours before dipping again and making a fresh low for the day, from there we’ve struggled through Tokyo lunch and remain on the weak side hovering around the 1.2760 level.
·        GBP: Cable has seen pretty much one way traffic while volumes have been slight its been constant selling for the most part as the Euro has either dragged on the pair, EURGBP cross selling was seen as soon as Tokyo opened and we saw the pair move off early highs above 0.7994 down to below 0.7980 but less convincing than you’d expect given the move lower in Euro’s Â
·        JPY: The early part of the session was a mixed affair with the USDJPY holding it’s own in the face of Euro and EURJPY selling however, as Euro moved to new lows the USDJPY leg gave up slightly and we moved away from the 80.00 area to trade below 79.80 for the second time in 24hrs as we move towards London we’ve regained some of the losses but the pair continues to struggle.
·        AUD: The Oz struggled in early trading with the NZD dragging on it a little after poor unemployment numbers in New Zealand entered the market, having pushed below the 1.0400 the Oz was saved by a unexpected rise in employment in Australia itself and we moved swiftly from the lows to trade above 1.0430 only for the drag of the Euro and concerns thereof kicking in again and for the pair to start drifting lower towards the 1.0400 again, we hold just above 1.0410 again as we move towards the next session.
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = RÂ
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Q3 A 7.30% | C 6.70% | P 6.80%Â Â Â Â Â
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Q/Q Q3 A -0.4% | C 0.30% | P -0.10%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Orders M/M Sep A -4.30% | C -2.10% | P -3.30%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Sep A -0.14T | C 0.21T | P 0.72TÂ Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Oct A 10.7K | C 0.5K | P 14.5KÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct A 5.40% | C 5.50% | P 5.40%Â Â Â
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Oct A 39 | C 40.5 | P 41.2
06:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Oct C 3.00% | P 2.90%Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Sep C 15.5B | P 16.3BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision C 0.50% | P 0.50%Â Â Â Â Â Â
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Nov C 375B | P 375B
12:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Rate Decision C 0.75% | P 0.75%Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Oct C 213.0K | P 225.2KÂ Â Â
13:30    EUR       ECB Press Conference                                                 Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.20%Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CAD) Sep C -1.50B | P -1.06BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Sep C -$45.0B | P -$44.2BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
13:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (NOV 3) C 365K | P 363KÂ Â Â Â Â
15:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage C 27B | P 65BÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â
Ranges as of 6am London time
                               Highs  Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 80.00 | 79.775
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2782 | 1.27425
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 102.20 | 101.75
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0433 | 1.0389
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8200 | 0.8157
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9978 | 0.9958
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.20713 | 1.20609
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.94645 | 0.94445
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5994 | 1.5970
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7993 | 0.79785
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 Good luck
Andy