Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close SYD open

USDJPY 96.039 95.82-96.17 | EURUSD 1.3002 1.2987-1.3000 | EURJPY 124.857 124.44-125.02 | AUDUSD 1.02357 1.0210-11 | NZDUSD 0.82166 0.8188-0.8213 | USDCAD 1.02846 1.0281-93 | EURCHF 1.23714 1.2356-86 | USDCHF 0.95153 0.9510-67 | GBPUSD 1.49208 1.4906-60 | EURGBP 0.87148 0.8680-0.8720 |

 

Weekend News

CNY:

China’s Retail-Industrial Data Show Weakest Start Since 2009 
China Feb. New Loans Were Less-Than-Estimated 620 Billion Yuan
CNY/HKD/TWD:

China Allows Some Hong Kong, Taiwan Residents to Trade A Share
JPY:

Abe Says U.S. Growth Is Factor in Weakening Yen, Stock Gains
Nishimura: Expectations for Bold Easing Prompt Yen Weakening
JPY/INR:

India to Adopt Japanese High-Speed Rail Technology, Yomiuri Says
EUR:

Merkel’s FDP Partner Says ‘Hands Off ECB’ in Election-Year Vow
Grilli Says He Expects Clarity on Italy Government in Next Days
Greece Should Still Leave the Euro (Telegraph)
EUR/GBP:

U.K. Exit From EU Would Be Disaster, Schaeuble Tells Standard
GBP:

U.K. ‘Needs a Much More Creative Monetary Policy,’ Cable Says
U.K. Treasury Considers Sale of Bailed-Out Banks, FT Says  

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: The pair opened quietly in the Asian session moving up just before the Tokyo opening on light EURJPY however, once that was passed we traded steadily lower through the session and into London with a murmur, having traded as high as 1.3115 we traded back into the 1.3090’s once London opened there was very little to change the market tracking slightly lower to the 1.3080 level, German IP came in weaker than expected but partially offset by a revision to last month and we moved quickly higher to above the 1.3130 level, before slowly moving down towards the lows. US data hit and with a good number for NFP hitting the USD rallied sharply across the board and the Euro dropped quickly to below 1.2960 before a half-hearted attempt to bounce pushing above 1.3000 before again testing the lows, we failed to push lower again and started to slowly move higher pushing above the 1.3000 into the close in NYK but the remaining couple of hours was slow to say the least as the seemed to have had enough.

·         GBP: The Asian session was as quiet in Cable as in the Euro we saw some selling after the market had traded up above the 1.5020 level but once the opening of Tokyo the market started to drift as everything seemed to be on hold for the NFP later in the day, as we moved towards the opening in London we saw a few buyers move in and the Cable moved up to above 1.5040 tracking the Euro move, with EURGBP buying keeping a lid on any gains for the GBP, once NFP were released it reacted no differently to the Euro and we saw it trade from near to its highs to below 1.4900 as stops were triggered on the new lows for the year, we bounced off the lows to the 1.4930 area and traded quietly from then on moving towards the 1.4900 level for a second time only to be forced quickly higher again to above 1.4950, once the little scramble was over the market settled down to trade in a 1.4920-50 range for the rest of the session in NYK before closing around the 1.4920 level.

·         JPY: USDJPY had a steady rise throughout the Asian session moving from the 94.90 area in a steady movement above 95.40 into London’s opening to continue to the NFP were we touched 95.80 before quickly gapping higher as stops in both USDJPY and EURJPY were triggered, we reached just below 96.60 after the US data release making a new significant level, before drifting off down to below 95.60, the afternoon session in NYK faired a little better with the pair again starting a steady rally higher to finish the day just above the 96.00 area but never quite looking at ever regaining the highs.

·         AUD: Having started the day in a strong position the market found itself concerned over rumours about China for a change, with talk of them being able to meet the GDP targets we saw the Oz slowly drift lower over the first half of the session moving from the 1.0270 level slowly down to below 1.0240 before finding anything in the way of support, we held the downside into the London session and we saw buyers appear in the Oz into the US figures as with the other majors the Oz suffered a quick drop trading down quickly from the highs above 1.0280 to a low below 1.0230 before slowly drifting towards the 1.0200 level, we never quite got there and once we’d touched just above 1.0210 we started a slow climb back to finish the day above 1.0235.

·          

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

JPY         GDP Q/Q Q4 (F) A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%   

JPY         GDP Deflator Y/Y Q4 (F) A -0.70% | C -0.60% | P -0.60% 

JPY         Current Account (JPY) Jan A 0.36T | C 0.11T | P 0.10T      

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey: Current Feb A 53.2 | C 51.2 | P 49.5            

CHF        CPI M/M Feb A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%         

CHF        CPI Y/Y Feb A -0.30% | C -0.30% | -0.30%              

EUR        German Industrial Production M/M Jan A 0.00% | C 0.60% | P 0.30% | R 0.60%

CAD       Housing Starts Feb A 181K | C 173K | P 160.6K    

USD       Change in Non-farm Payrolls Feb A 236K | C 158K | P 157K | R 119K

USD       Unemployment Rate Feb A 7.70% | C 7.90% | P 7.90%   

CAD       Net Change in Employment Feb A 50.7K | C 7.8K | P -21.9K         

CAD       Unemployment Rate Feb A 7.00% | C 7.00% | P 7.00%   

USD       Wholesale Inventories Jan A 1.20% | C 0.40% | P -0.10%

For today

USDJPY

Topside: 96.30-96.60 light offers  96.70-97.00 medium buy stops  97.10-97.40 light offers  97.50-97.80 medium buy stops 
Downside: 95.80-95.90 light bids 95.40-95.70 light bids 95.00-95.30 medium sell stops 

EURUSD 
Topside: 1.3010-1.3030 light offers  1.3040-1.3070 light buy stops 
Downside: 1.2950-1.2980 light bids 1.2900-1.2930 medium sell stops 

EURJPY 
Topside: 125.15-125.30 light offers  125.40-135.70 light offers 
Downside: 124.30-124.50 light bids  AUDUSD 
Topside: 1.0230-1.0250 light offers  1.0260-1.0290 light buy stops 
Downside: 1.0170-1.0200 light sell stops 1.0130-1.0160 medium sell stops

 

JPY:

Kuroda Says BOJ Will Consider Buying Derivatives Such as Swaps

BOJ head nominee Kuroda: must work on market expectations

BOJ head nominee Kuroda: no need to set price target for core-core CPI

BOJ Ishida: Efforts to boost growth potential needed for 2 pct inflation

Abe Wants Results From BOJ Nominees as They Face Historic Task

Japan Jan core machinery orders plunge, but recovery eyed

CNY:

China’s 2013 Inflation Seen Around 3% – NDRC

Moody’s: Revenue Slowdown Could Spur Rise in China Local Govt Debt

China PBOC Official Concerned Over Railway Ministry’s Debt -Report

EUR:

EU Loan Extension Positive for Ireland, Portugal, Moody’s Says

SGD:

Singapore Says Far Better to Engineer ‘Soft Landing’ for Homes

AUD:

Australia central bank targeted by hackers

·         EUR: The Euro opened lower from Friday’s close but only slightly below the 1.2990 level as articles in the press over the weekend highlighted that the problems of last year have not really gone away they’re just hiding in a bush waiting to pounce, the market traded lower from the opening moving to the 1.2980 level before Moody’s comments on EU loan extensions helped the market to recover and push back above 1.3000 in a pretty slow day’s trading.

·         GBP: Cable opened around were we closed and traded in a quiet and tight range moving to the 1.4910 level to the mid 1.4920’s but for the most part staying around the higher levels.

·         JPY: USDJPY saw some initial buying pre Tokyo opening only to fall back from above 96.25 on the machine orders number which should a large decline for Jan taking the market to just below the 96.00 level we slowly recovered but although we moved towards the highs we never quiet looked as convincing as at the start and as we moved into the latter part of the session the pair again began to wilt and move back towards the 96.00 area as we approach London opening.

·         AUD: The Oz opened lower on the back of weekend news that China’s retail industry is slowing, we saw the market open around the 1.0205 levels before struggling for the rest of the session to move away from those lows with no real data or news to help.

 

Today’s data

Actual = A Consensus = C  Previous = P Timings GMT

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb A 2.90% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%              

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Jan A -13.10% | C -1.70% | P 2.80%            

JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb (P) A -21.50% | P -26.40%   

07:00     EUR        German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan C 17.9B | P 16.8B          

08:15     CHF        Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan C 3.70% | P 5.10%       

 

Ranges as of 6am London time including Sydney open

                                Highs    Lows

USD/JPY             96.26 | 95.93

EUR/USD             1.3010 | 1.2980

EUR/JPY             125.175 | 124.61

AUD/USD             1.0228 | 1.0202

NZD/USD             0.8225 | 0.8186

USD/CAD             1.0296 | 1.0273

EUR/CHF             1.23745 | 1.2361

USD/CHF             0.95285 | 0.9510

GBP/USD            1.4926 | 1.4901

EUR/GBP            0.87175 | 0.8708

 Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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