Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

LMAX Close

USDJPY 96.287 | EURUSD 1.30456 | EURJPY 125.608 | AUDUSD 1.02804 | NZDUSD 0.82582 | USDCAD 1.02586 | EURCHF 1.23573 | USDCHF 0.94722 | GBPUSD 1.49154 | EURGBP 0.87469 |

 

Harry Hindsight

·         EUR: While the market opened a tad weaker than the NYK close on Friday, it held the 1.2980 level in early trading and spent a good portion of the day trading around the 1.3000 mark, it really wasn’t until the NYK session that we was any real movement, we gradually moved to above the 1.3050 with a couple of hours before the close before drifting a little lower.

·         GBP: Cable much the same as the Euro held its own in the Asian session as the market quietly moved from the opening 1.4920 level to below 1.4905 before rising high until the London market opened we touched a high above the 1.4940 areas before beginning to drop lower from the opening, with sellers of GBP against both the USD and Euro, moving the market to a low below 1.4870 before it began to recover, from there we rose in the NYK market trading back above the 1.4930 level only to see minor profit taking move in during the last couple of hours trading, taking the market to the 1.4900 levels.

·         JPY: USDJPY was indifferent generally we saw an early rally on the back of Fridays NFP which some of the local markets may have missed out on till this morning, we rose from the 95.80 level to 96.20 areas before dropping back partially on the Tokyo. The market from there was now in a tight range moving between 96.00-20 for several hours and it wasn’t until later in the day that the market started to move up trading to above the 96.30 in anticipation of the daily rise we’ve been seeing each night in the Tokyo market.

·         AUD: The Oz stayed pretty consistent throughout the day moving steadily from the 1.0210 area on the opening to slowly trade to above 1.0240 at the start of NYK session, with nothing special in the market the Oz continued to rise on the usual Chinese whispers often lacking in substance. We topped our around the 1.0280 area into the close to set the highs.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

JPY         Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Feb A 2.90% | C 2.70% | P 2.70%              

JPY         Machine Orders M/M Jan A -13.10% | C -1.70% | P 2.80%            

JPY         Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Feb (P) A -21.50% | P -26.40%

EUR        German Trade Balance (EUR) Jan A 15.7B | C 17.9B | P 16.8B | R 16.9B

CHF        Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan A 1.90% | C 3.70% | P 5.10%

 

For today

USDJPY:
Topside: 96.90-97.20 medium sized mix 97.20-97.50 light mix
Downside: 95.70-96.00 light bids 95.40-95.70 light bids EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3140-1.3180 light offers
Downside: 1.2970-1.3000 light bids

EURJPY:
Topside: 126.40-126.70 light buy stops
Downside: 124.70-125.00 light sell stops AUDUSD:
Topside: 1.0290-1.0320 light buy stops 1.0320-1.0350 light offers
Downside: 1.0220-1.0250 light mix

 

JPY:

Kuroda Hints at Surprise Action as BOJ Gov, Nikkei Says

DPJ Policy Group Said to advise Backing Kuroda, Rejecting Iwata

Iwata: Can Hit 2% Inflation with JGB Buying Alone, Without Risk-Asset Purchases

BOJ Nominee Iwata Says Need to Continue Quantitative Easing

BOJ should have expanded asset buying-BOJ deputy government nominee Nakaso

Nakaso: BOJ Board to Have Detailed Talks on What Steps to Take from Now

Aso Says Undecided How to Spend Extra Proceeds from JT Sale

Japan PM keeps pledge to mark 1952 return of sovereignty

Japan big manufacturers’ mood less pessimistic in Q1 -Govt

Japan Feb wholesale prices fall 0.1% YoY

JPY/IDR:

Sumitomo Mitsui Said to Weigh Bid for TPG’s Indonesia Bank Stake

CNY: China’s Wenzhou Plans 48% Private Lending Rate Cap, News Reports

PBOC ‘has scope to widen’ yuan band

China launches probe on banks’ wealth management products-paper

China Feb implied oil demand up 4.9% YoY; Jan at 3rd highest

KRW:

S.Korea Sees No Sign of another N.Korea Nuclear or Missile Test

GBP:

U.K. House-Price Index Declines as Demand Rebound Falls Short

NZD:

New Zealand February House Prices Rises 1.6% from January

NZ FinMin says still headed for budget surplus despite drought

 

·         EUR: There was a little more movement in the market today and with a busy day ahead for some currencies it could get more hectic later in the day, Euro opened around the 1.3045 area however, it immediately came under pressure from those partaking of the Sydney market forcing the Euro down into the 1.3020’s before Tokyo came in, once Tokyo opened the Euro managed a small rally on the back of EURJPY buying into the fix before drifting back to test the lows again and holding in the mid 1.3020’s as we move towards London.

·         GBP: Well what shall we do today I know, nothing just drift behind the Euro, while we held in the run to Tokyo Cable has moved down from above the 1.4910 level into the 1.4880’s as it tracks the Euro, with very little volume it’s been a very dull day for the GBP.

·         JPY: USDJPY has been strong from the beginning of the session opening around the 96.30 area and pushing higher into the Tanken report with the balance of the figures really no better and although some are better than expected they are still weaker numbers reflecting the general malaise in Japan, the USDJPY pushed to above the 96.70 level before slipping back a little and for the moment we hold just above the opening levels having run into a small brick wall on the topside.

·         AUD: The Oz traded quietly for the first 4 or 5 hours with very little going on in any of the markets really then we had a surge a little higher on weak stops being triggered on a break back through the 1.0300 topside levels peaking just above 1.0312, one suspects an option play as the move was fairly sharp if over an extended period of an hour for the full move up and then move back to where we started from and the market continues to hold in the opening area of 1.0280.

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

JPY         Domestic CGPI Y/Y Feb A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P -0.20% | R -0.30%             

JPY         Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan A -1.10% | C -0.20% | P 1.40% | R 1.10%

JPY         BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q1 A -4.6 | C -6.2 | P -10.3               

GBP       RICS House Price Balance Feb A -6% | C -1% | P -4%        

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Feb A 1 | P 3 

JPY         Consumer Confidence Feb A 44.3 | C 43 | P 43.3               

07:00     EUR        German CPI M/M Feb (F) C 0.60% | P 0.60%       

07:00     EUR        German CPI Y/Y Feb (F) C 1.50% | P 1.50%           

09:30     GBP       Industrial Production M/M Jan C -1.10% | P 1.10%           

09:30     GBP       Industrial Production Y/Y Jan C 0.00% | P -1.70%               

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production M/M Jan C -1.10% | P 1.60%

09:30     GBP       Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan C -1.50% | P -1.50%  

09:30     GBP       Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Jan C -8.8B | P -8.9B              

15:00     GBP       NIESR GBP Estimate Feb  P 0.00%            

18:00     USD       Monthly Budget Statement Feb C -220.0B | P 2.9B                      

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

                                Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               96.71 | 96.265

EUR/USD             1.3047 | 1.3023

EUR/JPY               126.03 | 125.595

AUD/USD            1.0313 | 1.0268

NZD/USD             0.8274 | 0.8243

USD/CAD             1.0269 | 1.0249

EUR/CHF              1.2367 | 1.23465

USD/CHF             0.9494 | 0.9468

GBP/USD             1.4920 | 1.4885

EUR/GBP             0.87495 | 0.8741

 

 

Good luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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