Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 98.177 | EURUSD 1.36805 | EURJPY 134.326 | AUDUSD 0.96547 | NZDUSD 0.84629 | USDCAD 1.03036 | EURCHF 1.23394 | USDCHF 0.90201 | GBPUSD 1.61466 | EURGBP 0.84724 |

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: Another quiet day as the market waits in anticipation of the backlog of data from the US that is due to be released this week. Opening around the 1.3680 level the market was unchanged over the course of the day, unable to break above the 1.3690 after a number of attempts. Asia struggled to do pretty much anything with a tight range broadly 1.3670/85. London faired really no better and only the move into NYK saw any half meaningful movement with USD’s being bought from the opening to take the market to 1.3652 before turning back higher to attempt the 1.3690 for the third time before slipping back to the 1.3680 level into the close. With only Draghi’s comments on the destabilising effect using bondholders to plug shortfalls for losing banks, the market remained rudderless throughout the sessions.
  • GBP: House prices continue to roar to the moon, and one imagines the fall back will be just as severe if it’s not controlled. However, that beside the market drifted along opening around the 1.6165 and moving initially higher before holding a 1.6155/80 throughout the session on very slow trading. London was very little different with a slightly higher high above the 1.6180 before drifting off into the NYK session to trade below 1.6135 levels before heading into a quiet finish around the 1.6145 areas.
  • JPY: The USDJPY rose slowly through the course of the day with light volumes throughout. Opening around the 97.85 level and struggling through the 98.00 level in Tokyo before dipping and slowly rising from that point to make highs around the 98.24 area into the NYK session. Whether the market is holding off and waiting for the raft of US numbers we’ve missed over the past 2 weeks is anyone’s guess, but this has to be the slowest day this year, or have I already used that one.
  • AUD: The market opened around the 0.9665 level moving into the Tokyo session slightly higher to the 0.9675 before dipping slowly to below 0.9645 from the opening onwards in Tokyo. The rise back through the opening and to the highs was less than spectacular moving to just below the 0.9680 level and that set the range for the day. With a less than impressive volumes over the course of the day the market remained in a choppy range compared to the rest moving between that 0.9675 level and 0.9652 before slumping into the close trading down to the lows again.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R 

GBP       Rightmove House Prices M/M Oct A 2.80% | P -1.50%

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Sep A -1.09T | C -1.06T | P -0.79T | R -0.82T

JPY         All Industry Activity Index M/M Aug A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.50% | R 0.40%

EUR        German PPI M/M Sep A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P -0.10%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Sep A -0.50% | C -0.70% | P -0.50%

CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Aug A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 1.50% | R 1.70%

USD       Existing Home Sales Sep A 5.29M | C 5.30M | P 5.48M

 

For today

USDJPY:
Topside: 98.40-98.60 large offers 98.60-98.90 light buy stops 98.90-99.20 medium offers
Downside: 97.90-98.10 light bids 97.60-97.90 light mix 97.30-97.60 light mix 96.80-97.10 large bids

EURUSD:
Topside: 1.3690-1.3710 light buy stops 1.3710-1.3740 light buy stops 1.3740-1.3770 medium offers 1.3770-1.3800 light mix
Downside: 1.3640-1.3660 light bids 1.3610-1.3640 medium bids 1.3580-1.3610 medium  bids

EURJPY:
Topside: 134.45-134.90 light buy stops
Downside: 133.50-133.80 light bids

AUDUSD:
Topside: 0.9680-0.9700 light offers 0.9700-0.9725 light buy stops 0.9725-0.9750 light offers
Downside: 0.9600-0.9640 light bids 0.9560-0.9600 light mix 0.9530-0.9560 light bids

 

JPY:

BoJ raises assessment of all 9 regions in quarterly report with signs of positive effects from policies

BoJ’s Q senior officer opinion survey on bank lending suggest demand for loans from firms strengthened

CNY:

China’s economy has good foundation to sustain growth – Premier Li

EUR:

Italian Unions strike over government budget

German city apartments overvalued warns Bundesbank – FT

 

  • EUR: The market dropped from the opening in a slow market, slow but not quite as bad as yesterday moving from the opening levels around the 1.3680 level into Tokyo flat and then down quickly on the opening with EURJPY cross selling moving into the market, dropping USDJPY to the 1.3662 levels were we currently hold for the moment. Markets maybe a little quiet with Non-Farm Payrolls due today.
  • GBP: Cable opened quietly on the 1.6145 level before moving into Tokyo with some weak selling of crosses dropping the Cable to the 1.6125 level before spending the rest of the session in a quiet 10 pip range around that 1.6125 area.
  • JPY: USDJPY traded quietly from the NYK close into the Tokyo session around the 98.20 levels before steadily moving a little higher to above 98.35 from the Tokyo fix onwards. The market for the moment holds above the 98.30 level close to those highs.
  • AUD: The Oz has been drifting lower over the course of the session as USDJPY strengthened so the Oz moved slowly lower moving from the opening 0.9657 area to around the 0.9644 level in a quiet session with the Oz just holding off its lows.

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R | All GMT

CNY        Conference Board Leading Index Sep A 0.90% | P 0.70%

06:00     CHF        Trade Balance (CHF) Sep C 2.00B | P 1.85B

08:30     GBP       Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Sep C 9.9B | P 11.5B

12:30     USD       Change in Non-farm Payrolls Sep C 180K | P 169K

12:30     USD       Unemployment Rate Sep C 7.30% | P 7.30%

12:30     CAD       Retail Sales M/M Aug C 0.30% | P 0.60%

12:30     CAD       Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 1.00%

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               98.38 | 98.13

EUR/USD             1.36805 | 1.3662

EUR/JPY               134.42 | 134.20

AUD/USD            0.9657 | 0.9643

NZD/USD             0.8458 | 0.8439

USD/CAD             1.0310 | 1.0302

EUR/CHF              1.23465 | 1.2339

USD/CHF             0.90355 | 0.90195

GBP/USD             1.6147 | 1.6115

EUR/GBP             0.8478 | 0.8472

 

 

 
Good Luck

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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