Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.396 | EURUSD 1.38138 | EURJPY 141.434 | AUDUSD 0.93328 | NZDUSD 0.85684 | USDCAD 1.10041 | EURCHF 1.22006 | USDCHF 0.8832 | GBPUSD 1.67941 | EURGBP 0.82252 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.57 | 102.325

EUR/USD             1.3819 | 1.3808

EUR/JPY               141.645 | 141.38

AUD/USD            0.9335 | 0.9323

NZD/USD             0.8585 | 0.8568

USD/CAD             1.1011 | 1.0999

EUR/CHF              1.2204 | 1.2200

USD/CHF             0.88385 | 0.8830

GBP/USD             1.6796 | 1.6771

EUR/GBP             0.8230 | 0.82265

 

For today

  • EUR: With the market closed all but in name the ranges and volumes have been as expected with only minor fluctuations in the Euro dipping briefly below the 1.3810 level but for the most part holding around the 1.3815 levels. Light offers into the 1.3830 levels rising to the 1.3850 area before weak stops start to be mixed in, 1.3870-1.3900 remains strong offers but larger stops are now expected above the levels. Downside has a mixture to the 1.3770 level with light stops on a clear break of 1.3800, with a more supportive area 1.3720-50.
  • GBP: A little choppier and light liquidity, having failed the topside for the moment the market has slipped back below the 1.6800 level and in early selling pushed into the mid 1.6770’s before rising back to the opening 1.6790 levels. Downside has weak bids to the 1.6750 levels with very little showing on the handle from there and the topside has offers from the 1.6840 levels now starting to build.
  • JPY: USDJPY opened around the 102.40 area and although a little jittery at the start of the day with a lack of liquidity in Sydney recovered from a spike into the low 102.30’s and gradually moved to push above the 102.55 levels as fixing demand met very little, once the demand dried up though the market moved just as quickly back to the 102.40 base line and has held there since. Offers appear around the 102.60-90 levels with some light stops behind and through 103.00 however, stronger offers start to appear from the 103.20 levels and go deep into mid handle before running out. Downside light bids from 102.00 and back with very little in the way of stops likely for the time being, better bids begin towards the 101.30 areas.
  • AUD: With Australia already closed down for the holidays the market has been unremarkably quiet holding around the 0.9325/35 levels the whole session. Offers from the top of the range today going back to the 0.9350 levels followed by limited stops above the 0.9370 levels. the Downside as can be seen from the range has light bids from the lows down to the 93cent area with nothing apparent below there.

Overnight News

JPY:

Japan PM Abe to Overhaul GPIF Investment Board This Month – Aide

Japan’s new growth strategy to include GPIF role -FinMin Aso

JPY/USD:

Japan, U.S. Still in Stalemate over TPP Talks, Amari Says: Kyodo

CNY:

China new home prices rise slows to 7.7% YoY in March

China May Keep Monetary Policy Unchanged: Securities Journal

China Zhejiang May Copy Shanghai FTZ Reforms: Securities Journal

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY Tertiary Industry index (MoM) Feb A -1.00% | P 0.9%

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: With the Easter period upon us the market was particularly quiet even if the ranges improved somewhat during Asia, opening around the 1.3815 the market moved steadily higher as shorts in the market closed positions pushing the Euro up in limited liquidity to the 1.3840 areas and into some light offers. London entered the fray at the same levels and it wasn’t until a few hours into the session that the market moved again with a number of ECB members failing to mention anything about measures to be taken leaving those shorts left in the market wondering whether they are wasting their time again. Having pushed to the 1.3865 levels the market ran into some better offers and held the levels into the NYK session. Initial jobless claims came in slightly better than expected and the market reversed steadily over the next few hours with really nothing left in the market and poor volumes. The market dipped below the 1.3840 levels and triggered some weak stops and tumbled to the 1.3815 opening areas where the market quietly finished.
  • GBP: The market opened quietly and once the Tokyo opened it was a short trip from the 1.6795 levels to test the 4yr highs, with the market having tested a couple of times the way was open and a lack of liquidity helped very little in defending the 1.6820 level and the market squeezed though to push to the 1.6835 levels and some light offerings, having pushed there the market couldn’t move beyond the level and stalled into the London session, a brief push was seen in early trading however the market held the levels for the greater part, until a resurgence in the Euro and EURGBP cross squeezed the Cable lower into the better numbers in the US adding to the move lower. The market initially dropped to the 1.6800 levels and struggled to move through but after hours of light selling the downside was exhausted of its meagre demand and gave way and a steady drip to the 1.6390 levels where the market closed for the day.
  • JPY: The USDJPY struggled in early Tokyo dipping from the opening levels around the 102.25 areas and dropping to the 101.90 levels as USD longs cut positions going into the long weekend. Having hit the bottom once the supply was finished the market started a slow climb back to the opening levels and the move took the best part of the day and as the London market closed the market was squeezed through the 102.25 level and quickly move to the mid 102.40’s as liquidity disappeared. Once the market had reached the next batch of offers it stalled and lacked liquidity to move as the NYK market slowly drifted off for the weekend.
  • AUD: The Oz struggled throughout the day, with the market fretting over the CNY numbers half the reason for being long the AUD disappears, having touched the 0.9390 levels in early Tokyo as AUDJPY buying went through a thin market, the demand was never going to last long and once the market moved through the opening 0.9370 level it dropped quickly to 0.9350 as weak stops went through in a thin market. The market moved around the 0.9360 for the bulk of the London session finding very little interest to inspire before the USD rally occurred to put the Oz lower again to the 0.9325 levels and a quiet close.

 

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       NAB Business Confidence Q1 A 6 | P 8

JPY         Consumer Confidence Index Mar A 37.5 | C 40.2 | P 38.3

EUR        German PPI M/M Mar A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%

EUR        German PPI Y/Y Mar A -0.90% | C -0.70% | P -0.90%

CAD       CPI M/M Mar A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.80%

CAD       CPI Y/Y Mar A 1.50% | C 1.40% | P 1.10%

CAD       BoC CPI Core M/M Mar A 0.30% | C 0.30% | P 0.70%

CAD       BoC CPI Core Y/Y Mar A 1.30% | C 1.30% | P 1.20%

USD       Initial Jobless Claims (APR 12) A 312K | C 316K | P 300K | R 302K

USD       Philly Fed Survey Apr A 16.6 | C 9.5 | P 9

 

Good Luck,

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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