Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close Wellington open

USDJPY 102.44 10248-49 | EURUSD 1.38133 1.3808-1.3819 | EURJPY 141.493 141.255-60 | AUDUSD 0.93303 0.9327-44 | NZDUSD 0.85771 0.8563-90 | USDCAD 1.10218 1.1015-25 | EURCHF 1.22017 1.21925-1.2205 | USDCHF 0.88341 0.8831-40 | GBPUSD 1.67889 1.6780-1.6808 | EURGBP 0.82254 0.8220-37 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.71 | 102.395

EUR/USD             1.38175 | 1.3805

EUR/JPY               141.835 | 141.53

AUD/USD            0.9341 | 0.9315

NZD/USD             0.8602 | 0.8558

USD/CAD             1.1027 | 1.1019

EUR/CHF              1.2202 | 1.2199

USD/CHF             0.88365 | 0.8831

GBP/USD             1.6804 | 1.6784

EUR/GBP             0.8230 | 0.8221

 

For today

  • EUR: While the majority remain on holiday the market has been a little more liquid during the Asian session however, this is not reflected in the Euro which opened around the 1.3816/17 area and drifted steadily lower over the course of the early part of the session into the Tokyo market, trading as low as the 1.3806 levels as weekend news before holding around the 1.3810 in limited trading. What action in the market that occurred was generally EURJPY selling in the face of a rising USDJPY, Euro’s moved back to the 1.3810 levels and holds in the areas as we move towards another holiday in Europe. With the market unchanged since the end of the session on Thursday the levels remain broadly the same. Light offers into the 1.3830 levels rising to the 1.3850 area before weak stops start to be mixed in, 1.3870-1.3900 remains strong offers but larger stops are now expected above the levels. Downside has a mixture to the 1.3770 level with light stops on a clear break of 1.3800, with a more supportive area 1.3720-50.
  • GBP: A mixture of stories over the weekend and today has the Cable market moving a little erratically, while the Ukraine story holds centre stage the negotiations for the takeover of Astra Zeneca by Pfizer for an estimated £60B may keep the GBP underpinned for the time being the market opened around the 1.6800 level and although it held in pre Tokyo around the level has drifted to the 1.6785 level before moving steadily back to the opening area. For the moment with nothing likely to happen on a bank holiday other than rumour mongering the levels remain the same, downside has weak bids to the 1.6750 levels with very little showing on the handle from there and the topside has offers from the 1.6840 levels now starting to build.
  • JPY: The USDJPY opened quietly unchanged from the Fridays close only moving once Tokyo opened with the release of another poor trade number sending the pair higher over the next couple of hours to above the 102.70 level and into the waiting offers, the market stalled with a lack of impetus in the face of the offers and has drifted since, the market saw limited cross profit taking to the topside pushing some of the majors lower but while volumes were reasonable it’s still a bank holiday. Offers appear around the 102.70-90 levels with some light stops behind and through 103.00 however, stronger offers start to appear from the 103.20 levels and go deep into mid handle before running out. Downside light bids from 102.00 and back with very little in the way of stops likely for the time being, better bids begin towards the 101.30 areas.
  • AUD: Early Tokyo saw some quick buying in the AUDJPY carry however, as the USDJPY continued to run higher the market ran into some light profit taking and with a lack of liquidity the Oz reversed its gains and moved back down triggering some light stops below the 0.9325 level before moving back closer to the opening 0.9330 levels, the market however, was still contained in a 25 pip range and the general market remains the same as Friday. Offers from the top of the range today going back to the 0.9350 levels followed by limited stops above the 0.9370 levels. the Downside as can be seen from the range has light bids from the lows down to the 93cent area with nothing apparent below there.

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Mar  A -1.45T | C -1.27T | P -1.13T | R -802.5B

14:00     USD       Leading Indicators Mar C 0.70% | P 0.50%

 

Weekend News

JPY:

Yasuhiro Yonezawa to Lead GPIF Investment Committee: Nikkei
Japan Auto Insurers to Raise Rates 2% From Autumn, Nikkei Says
Japan to Break Ground on New Base Near Isles Disputed With China
Japan Cabinet Minister Furuya Visits Yasukuni Shrine: Kyodo
JPY/USD:

U.S., Japan Agree to Cut Beef Tariff in TPP Deal, Yomiuri Says
JPY/RUB:

Japan Minister Cites ‘Abnormal’ Russian Military Activity: Kyodo
UAH/RUB:

Ukraine Accord Scepticism Grows as Protesters Won’t Disarm
RUB/UAH:

Putin Says Deadline to Pay for Gas Isn’t Linked to Ukraine Vote
EUR:

ECB Runs Various QE Models, Including Unlimited Program: Spiegel
IFO’s Sinn Says Crisis Countries Need to Exit Euro Region: WiWo
EUR/CNY:

VW Signals It Will Outsell GM in China for Second Straight Year
USD:

Keystone Review Delay Draws Angry Reaction From Pipeline Backers
SEC Said to Weigh Shining Light on Broker Role in Routing Stocks
CNY:

China Officials Told to Speed up Spending: Economic Observer
China Must Cut Yuan Intervention, ex-PBOC Adviser Says
Chinese Local Govt 1Q Land Sale Revenue Rises 40%: China Daily
China Resources Chairman Removed From Office, Xinhua News Says
GBP/EUR:

British Business Needs to Be at the Heart a reformed EU, say Business leaders: Telegraph

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: With a good proportion of the market on holiday the markets were pinned in a reasonably tight 10 pip range for most of the session with dips to below the 1.3810 level and peak into a non-existent London session above the 1.3825 on the very wide. Volumes were what you would expect on a bank holiday.
  • GBP: While Cable may have been a little more volatile 25 pips was more indicative of the lack of a market for the most part with a narrow choppy session as the market coped with limited players. Ranging from the 1.6775 level in early London to just above the 1.6800 levels in early NYK was the most the market could manage.
  • JPY: With the Far East being the only active market per sae the action was less limited that what followed, moving from the opening 102.40 levels the market moved steadily into Tokyo and moved reasonably quickly to the highs above the 102.55 level before drifting for the remainder of the session, the rest of the day was contained in a very narrow band around the 102.40 level.
  • AUD: The Sydney market was the first to have broken up for the and the market never really got going rising steadily through Asia from the opening 0.9325 to above the 0.9340 level into the NYK session before drifting back to the opening levels again.

 

Friday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY Tertiary Industry index (MoM) Feb A -1.00% | P 0.9%

 

Stay lucky

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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