Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Good morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 102.596 | EURUSD 1.37936 | EURJPY 141.523 | AUDUSD 0.93274 | NZDUSD 0.85582 | USDCAD 1.10113 | EURCHF 1.22077 | USDCHF 0.88504 | GBPUSD 1.67924 | EURGBP 0.82142 |

 

Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time

Highs    Lows

USD/JPY               102.73 | 102.60

EUR/USD             1.3797 | 1.37895

EUR/JPY               141.69 | 141.52

AUD/USD            0.9359 | 0.9322

NZD/USD             0.8588 | 0.8565

USD/CAD             1.1023 | 1.1010

EUR/CHF              1.22095 | 1.2205

USD/CHF             0.88545 | 0.8848

GBP/USD             1.6797 | 1.6785

EUR/GBP             0.8217 | 0.82135

 

For today

  • EUR: The market held the opening levels only managing a meagre 5 pip dip through the course of the session and then rising back to the 1.3795 opening levels in very slow trading. With limited numbers showing for the moment the next 30 pips to the downside is rather mixed with a bias to the bid side with stops taking over the bias through the 1.3770 level until the 1.3750 were bids start to thicken over the next 30 pips to the 1.3720 levels, from there the market is mixed. Topside sees offers from the 1.3830 levels with increasing amounts to 1.3900 levels before any meaningful stops make an appearance. For the moment the market still has nothing major to talk about and given it’s a week since the announcement of extraordinary measures it’s taken its time to move 50 or 60 pips, glad to see that the ECB can instil so much confidence.
  • GBP: Limited price action and movement holding for the most part around the 1.6795 levels with a minor dip below the 1.6790 levels, with no real attempts in any direction over the Easter period it’s difficult to judge whether the Cable may have a little catching up to do with the Euro. For the moment the 1.6770 level has light supportive bids, with stops not really showing until below the 1.6750 levels with bids falling in just behind them around 1.6720-00 areas. Topside offers build in number above the 1.6830/50 area with weak stops above those levels however, reasonable offers are suspected from then on.
  • JPY:  Early buying in Tokyo again forced the USDJPY through the 102.70 levels and into the waiting offers an while its only slightly higher than yesterday the market remains intact to the topside with the offers stretching through the 103.00 levels with stops emerging just beyond the break of the figure. More offers appear close on the heels of the stops and 103.20/40 look to be just as heavy as the topside 30 pips however, the market has to get there and it will need more impetus than we’ve seen over the Easter period. Downside has light bids from the 102.40-60 levels before stops start to make an appearance however, it is fairly mixed from that point on and no real strength either way until below the 102.00 levels with stops dominating.
  • AUD: A better Conference leading index led the Oz higher from its release and into the Tokyo session where the carry trade came into its own, the Oz moved off the 0.9325 levels and pushed through to 0.9360 areas before drifting as the demand outstripped the meagre supply during the early part of the session. The market holds much of the gains and the market has light bids now to the 93 cent level before any stops are seen, through the 93cent level the weak stops hold around the next 10 pips before light mixture appears. Topside has strong offers to the 94 cent level and a bit of a two way affair once the level is broken.

Overnight News

USD/RUB:

US Could hit Russian officials with sanctions, State Dept. says

JPY:

GPIF Revamps Investment Committee With Three From Abe Panel

Aso: Strong Domestic Demand Main Reason for Surging Imports

Japan FinMin expects stronger Japan-U.S. alliance through summit

Japan’s Amari: Sees distance to Japan-U.S. agreement on TPP

Govt should not interfere in lawmaker’s shrine visit -Japan spokesman

Japan Power Companies Purchased Aso Fundraising Tickets: Asahi

KRW:

S. Korea Says Activities Increasing at North Korea Nuclear Site

CNY:

China lawmakers may loosen local Govt debt ban reports

EUR:

Samaras Sees Bond Yields Falling More as Greek Economy Rebounds

French Govt Forecasts 1% Growth for 2014, 1.7% for 2015: Echos

NZD:

NZ PM Key Says Indicators Point to Stronger Economy

 

 

Today’s data

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

AUD       Conference Board Leading Index Feb A 0.30% | P 0.20%

12:30     CAD       Wholesale Sales M/M Feb C 0.70% | P 0.80%

13:00     USD       House Price Index M/M Feb C 0.50% | P 0.50%

14:00     USD       Existing Home Sales Mar C 4.55M | P 4.60M

14:00     EUR        Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr (A) C -9.3 | P -9.3

 

Harry Hindsight

  • EUR: While the range may have been a little better the volumes were not. Opening around the 1.3815 levels and dipping in the first few hours to below 1.3806 the market was forced lower as the USDJPY rose into offers in various crosses. Once the movement stalled the Euro again started to float higher pushing over several hours into the London session to push above the 1.3830 level for the first and only time with weak buying moved in 1.3830 saw weak offers however, they were strong enough to keep a lid on the market and the market moved steadily back to the opening levels and held the 1.3810 levels in to the NYK session. A stronger leading indicator led the USD higher and the Euro pushed below the 1.3790 level for the first time in a couple of weeks before holding into a quiet close.
  • GBP: The Cable was a little better bid once the USDJPY buying was finished with in Tokyo rising from the opening levels of 1.6790 areas to just short of 1.6820 as the market saw limited buying on the back of weekend news and merger talks between Pfizer and Zeneca, by the time we reached mid-morning in London the market had touched the highs and was again slipping back to the opening levels to hold around the 1.3795 levels into the close.
  • JPY: Being the only central market open for the day retail Japan was busy buying during the early part of the session taking the market from the opening 102.45 levels to above the 102.70 level and into the awaiting offers, although it was reasonably aggressive buying the market was unable to push on without the momentum players and held the 102.65 areas for a few hours before beginning a long dip lower to the 102.55 levels into the London period. The leading indicator helped to move the market very little and we ranged for the rest of the session around the 102.60 level in quiet trading.
  • AUD: The Oz was limited in movement with very little in the way of direction moving between the 0.9320-45 levels throughout the session.

Yesterday’s premiership results

Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT

JPY         Trade Balance (JPY) Mar               A -1.71T | C -1.27T | P -1.13T | R -1.18T

USD       Leading Indicators Mar A 0.80% | C 0.70% | P 0.50%

 

Good Luck,

Andy

LMAX Exchange Market Commentary   AUDUSD   Andy Harrison  

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