Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.146 | EURUSD 1.13543 | AUDUSD 0.81139 | NZDUSD 0.74771 | USDCAD 1.19588 | USDCHF 0.91692 | GBPUSD 1.57434 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.34 | 119.095
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1374 | 1.1340
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 135.52 | 135.25
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8164 | 0.8102
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7563 | 0.7478
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1964 | 1.1925
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.04115 | 1.0405
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9176 | 0.9150
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5760 | 1.5731
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7218 | 0.7208
For today
- EUR: The move into Asia initially saw the market dipping a little to the 1.1340 levels before finding decent buyers moving in with steady cross buying and USD sellers forcing the Euro to towards the 1.1380 levels and the resistance areas. Topside offers from the 1.1380 level are likely to be strong with a mixture of short sellers and range players however, a push through the figure level will likely see a flurry of action with mixed weak stops and continuing offers before the offers are likely to dominate through to the 1.1450 areas however, a push through the 1.1460 level will possibly see the offers diminishing and the market opening for a larger move to the topside and the early January levels. Downside has likely light bids into the 1.1320 areas and through the level with weak stops on a break through that level likely, a push back into the 1.1250 areas will likely see bids appearing however, this would depend on the PPI numbers with a set of strong numbers needed to reverse the previous day’s action.
- GBP: EURGBP remained stuck in the 0.7210-20 range so the Euro pulled the Cable along with it on its rise, with the Cable opened around the 1.5740 level before dipping 1.5730 the market then moved steadily towards the 1.5760 levels. Congestion to the 1.5800 level will quickly open the market to the topside and a steady grind to the 1.60-1.62 ranges. Downside bids light into the 1.5730 levels before the market open to free movement to possibly the 1.5630 having already been cleared, a push through the 1.5600 opens a deeper movement however, this will depend on reactions to the PPI numbers in the US with very little data in Europe today.
- JPY: Another quiet session for the USDJPY moving from just below the 119.20 areas to push above the 119.35 into the Tokyo fix before again moving back to test the 119.10 areas in very quiet trading. Topside offers light into the 119.70-80 levels and then increasing as the market moves to the 120.00 levels as before the market really has to break through the 120.30 levels to stand any chance of a move higher however, the market is likely to move again into offers around the 120.50 levels and those will increase as the market moves to the next area of 121.00. Downside see’s bids into the 119.00 areas and then a very congested area through to the 118.60 levels and with high volumes of foreign bonds again reportedly bought over the past week the yield players are likely to be active, a push through the 118.40 will see a test of the 118.00 levels and weak stops triggered along the way however, any further weakness will be solely down to poor PPI numbers.
- AUD: Early trading saw the Oz move steadily higher pushing through the resistance around the 0.8120 levels before finding some weak stops and pushing through the 0.8160 level on the second attempt with the stops cleared and the market running into stronger offers the market then drifted back to the 0.8120 levels and then ranged in the 0.8120-40 levels into the London session. Topside sees potentially strong offers into the 82 cent level however, if the market pushes through the 0.8240 levels we could see strong stops triggered and the market opening into the 0.82-0.86 range with little to protect the upside other than verbal intervention. Downside bids light into the 0.8120 level and a push through the 81 cent level is now likely to see weak stops through the level and a potential reversal of the market, 80 cent level holds light bids with those bids likely to continue through the 0.7980 levels a push to the 0.7950 levels will see light reversal stops and an opening to the downside.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
Japanese Bought Net 492.6 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
BOJ Policy Is Financing Govt Debt: Ex-Board Member Shinotsuka
Tokyo April Office Vacancies Rise M/m for First Time Since 2013
NZD:
NZ 1Q Retail Sales Shows Biggest Quarterly Gain on Record
New Zealand Manufacturing Growth Slows for a Second Month: PMI
CNY:
China Interest Rate Cut Credit Negative for Banks, Moody’s Says
TWD/JPY:
Taiwan Set to Restrict Japan Food Imports as Talks Fail: Sankei
GBP:
London Housing Rebounds as U.K. Property Squeeze Boosts Prices
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Apr A 51.8| P 54.5 | R 54.6
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q1 A 2.70% | C 1.60% | P 1.70% | R 1.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Apr A 33% | C 22% | P 21%
06:00Â Â Â Â JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr (P) P 14.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Mar C 0.30% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Apr P -0.80%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Apr C 0.10% | P 0.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Apr P 0.90%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 9) C 271K | P 265K
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: Lagging vs. leading indicators with Asia steadily pushing the Euro higher in light trading, the market opened around the 1.1215 areas and moved into the Tokyo session holding the 1.1220 level, fixing demand helped the market through, a test back to 1.1220 saw the market start to push higher taking the market gradually through the 1.1250 levels and into the London session. French GDP surprised a little and the market edged to above the 1.1260 levels however, a succession of weaker numbers particularly from Germany left the market again drifting lower and the market drifted to the 1.1200 levels to make the lows for the day. NYK saw weaker retail sales (a picture of things to come?) and the USD collapsed and the Euro quickly jumped to the 1.1300 levels pushing from that point slowly higher and a steady climb to the 1.1380 levels and stronger offers, the market unable to find a way through the topside drifted from that point dipping back to the 1.1340 before closing only slightly higher.
- GBP: A choppy day overall for the Cable, moving through Asia reasonably quietly, opening around the 1.5670 level and edging higher into the London session. A decent set of numbers with jobless claims continuing to fall but missing the targets kept the market bubbling and the market pushed higher into the numbers before commentary from the BoE Quarterly inflation report sent the market dropping quickly back with estimations for the next hike likely to be in the 2Q 2016 and Cable dropped quickly from the highs around the 1.5740 areas to touch through the 1.5640 levels. The move into NYK saw the leading numbers in the form of retail sales and the USD dropped with Cable moving off the lows to the 1.5700 levels and then after a pause pushing again through the highs to the 1.5750 levels, triggering weak stops through the level and to the 1.5770 before dipping back and holding for the most part around the 1.5740 levels to the close.
- JPY: Same old, same old for the USD in Asia with an inability to push to far beyond the 120.20 levels this week and unable to drop below the 119.70 areas, Asia opened around the 119.90 areas and then traded in a tight range through the session pushing to the 119.95 areas and trading around the 119.80’s into the London session, the market dipped only slightly lower through the London session before the US data triggered a movement to break the lows for the week. Falling to the 119.30 levels the move after that was a drawn out affair with the market pushing for the 119.00 levels but meeting support all along the way before rising only a little from the lows to finish around the 119.15 levels.
- AUD: The Oz struggled through the Asian session with the market pushing above the 80 cent levels briefly before falling back to the opening 0.7980 to trade in a tight range into the London session, rising iron ore prices, problems for China’s miners and a budget that the market liked saw the Oz start to rise over the course of the London session pushing gradually to the 0.8040 levels, US numbers then sent the market up to the 81 cent level and the market struggled for a period before breaking through only to the 0.8120 levels and then a narrow range to the close over several hours.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Mar A 2.07T | C 1.34T | P 0.60T | R 0.61T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wage Cost Index Q/Q Q1 A 0.50% | C 0.60% | P 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr A 53.6 | C 52.1 | P 52.2
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Apr A 10.00% | C 10.40% | P 10.20%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Apr A 5.90% | C 5.80% | P 5.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Apr A 12.00% | C 13.50% | P 13.50%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â French GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.50% | P 0.70%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI M/M Apr (F) A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German CPI Y/Y Apr (F) A 0.50% | C 0.40% | P 0.40%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italian GDP Q/Q Q1 (P) A 0.30% | C 0.20% | P 0.00%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Jobless Claims Change Apr A -12.6K | C -20.1K | P -20.7K | R -16.7K
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Claimant Count Rate Apr A 2.30% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar A 5.50% | C 5.50% | P 5.60%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Mar A -0.30% | C 0.10% | P 1.10% | R 1.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q1 (A) A 0.40% | C 0.50% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Apr A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.90% | R 1.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Apr A 0.10% | C 0.40% | P 0.40% | R 0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Import Price Index M/M Apr A -0.30% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Mar A 0.10% | C 0.20% | P 0.30% | R 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -2.2M | C -0.1M| P -3.9M
Good Luck,
Andy
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