Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 119.176 | EURUSD 1.14097 | AUDUSD 0.80802 | NZDUSD 0.74968 | USDCAD 1.19837 | USDCHF 0.91226 | GBPUSD 1.57755 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 119.50 | 119.16
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14185 | 1.1393
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 136.33 | 135.91
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.8089 | 0.8043
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7502 | 0.7454
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2005 | 1.1982
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0416 | 1.0406
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9139 | 0.9125
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5780 | 1.5758
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72365 | 0.7227
For today
- EUR: A quiet session overall with the market drifting sideways for the most part with limited push to below the 1.1400 levels before pushing back towards the 1.1420 levels. Before settling back to trade around the opening 1.1410 areas. Topside offers into the 1.1450 areas congestion continues through the level however, a push through the 1.1540-50 areas is likely to see breakout stops and the potential for the market to continue rising. Downwards is light of bids until the market pushes to the 1.1340 areas were they start to dominate, yesterday’s announcement that the QE is likely to taper quickly after the success belays belief and while the idea of the QE was sufficient to lower the Euro, it was more the strength of the USD which of course now is retracing the movement as each successive number puts back the rate rise. With the market unwinding those USD longs the Euro again is facing the topside and a reintroduction of a stronger Euro, not a pleasant thought for the Europeans and Draghi may be a little pre-emptive in his speech. With all that in mind a push through the 1.1320 level is likely to open up the downside to test into the low 1.1220’s.
- GBP: As with the Euro the market drifted in a tight range trading from the 1.5780 areas and touching briefly through the 1.5760 level before ranging close to the opening levels. Topside offers into the 1.5800-20 areas are likely to be a little light however, a push through the level opens up the topside to the 1.6000 areas with little in between, the fact that the UK numbers still bear up to inspection for the moment, possible option barriers into the level are likely to slow the movement and possibly leave the market over done. Downside light through the 1.5750 areas and then only token bids to the 1.5700 areas, light stops likely through the level and then better bids into the 1.5660-50 areas possibly slightly further and an opening for a stronger move lower.
- JPY: Opening in the 119.20 areas the market struggled for a time before edging higher to trigger light stops through the 119.30 areas and a stab at the 119.50 levels before running out of steam and dipping back to trade quietly just above the 119.30 levels. Light bids into the 119.00 area extending to stronger bids to the 118.80-60 level before a possible break lower appears however, again the yield players are the major factor on any move lower and for the moment the momentum is slow and support is proving resilient, Topside offers light through the 119.50 areas and likely to increase to the 119.80 areas and continuing to the 120.20-30 areas before weak stops are likely to appear however, the move is likely to be short lived with offers then increasing from the 120.50 onwards.
- AUD: A drift from the opening 0.8080 levels to touch the 0.8090 levels in early trading into Tokyo, the market dropped back quickly with weak stops triggered through the 0.8070 areas to push the market down below the 0.8050 levels before finding a little stability and pushing back to the 0.8060 levels and trading sideways from that point. Topside offers are likely to be weak through the 0.8080 levels and open for a further test to the 0.8130 levels a push through the levels will see stronger offers in a move towards the previous highs around the 0.8160 levels and possible option interest into the 82 cent level. Downside bids light to the 0.8040 areas before giving way to the 80 cent level and little support until 0.7980-50 with 79 cent seeing similar bids.
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Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
JPY:
Expansion in Bank of Japan Easing Isn’t Needed Now: Kuroda
JPY/USD:
Japan’s Amari Says He Hopes U.S. Passes Fast-Track Trade Bill
CNY:
PBOC Researchers Call for More Outbound Yuan Investment
China’s April FDI Rises 10.5% Y/y in Yuan Terms; Est. 2%
Moody’s Taylor Sees ‘Tail Risks’ in China Property, Asset Prices
CNY/RUB:
China PBOC’s Zhou Meets with Russia Central Bank Governor
USD:
Obama: U.S. Looking at Syria’s Possible Use of Chlorine in Bombs
NZD:
Fonterra Cuts Forecast 12-Month Whole Milk Powder Offer Volumes
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Domestic CGPI Y/Y Apr A -2.10% | C -2.10% | P 0.70%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Index Apr A 41.5 | C 41.9 | P 41.7
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices M/M Apr C -0.10% | P 0.20%
7:15Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Apr P -3.40%
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Mar C 4.10% | P -0.90%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Shipments M/M Mar P -1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Securities Transactions (CAD) Mar C 7.23B | P 9.27B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing May C 5.1 | P -1.19
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Apr C 0.10% | P -0.60%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Apr C 78.40% | P 78.40%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence May (P) C 96.5 | P 95.9
20:00Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Net Long-term TIC Flows Mar P $9.8B
Harry Hindsight             Â
- EUR: A quiet and steady rise during the Asian session saw the market moving from the 1.1340 levels and gradually push towards the 1.1380 level and breaking into early London to move quickly to above the 1.1420 levels and a certain amount of offers cleared. Light profit taking moved in before the market again started to move higher pushing again through the 1.1420’s and touching through 1.1440 before running into stiff resistance, the market failed to move on and started to drift before the US numbers and initial jobless claims saw better than expected number and the USD put in a little rally and left the Euro drifting to the opening levels. With London out of the market the Euro started a steady rise back to the 1.1400 level to finish just above the level.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.5740 levels and with very little UK news the market moved with the Euro for the most part with the cross EURGBP remaining in a tight range through the day, topping above the 0.7240 from an opening 0.7210 levels. Cable edged higher from the lows below 1.5740, London saw the market move above the 1.5780 levels and a concerted effort pushed the market eventually through 1.5800 levels but unable to push beyond the 1.5820 area, the move into the NYK session saw the same fall back to the opening levels before a rise to mid-range and a close around the 1.5780 areas.
- JPY: While the USDJPY has fallen back this week the pattern has not changed, opening around the 119.15 areas the market has traded in a narrow range moving to just above the 119.30 levels in Asia and dropping back into the London session to make lows just below the 118.90 level before recovering and holding around the opening levels into the NYK session, the same pattern was seen in NYK before the day ran out trading around the 119.20 areas.
- AUD: Early buying took the market from the opening 0.8110 levels to test briefly above the 0.8160 before finding sufficient offers to dissuade the market from that direction, dipping back to the opening and then holding the opening areas into London. Quick selling from the London opening saw the early day traders move in and the market dipped below the 0.8070 levels and the range was set for the day, the run to NYK saw the market back above 0.8130 and the US numbers saw the same pattern with NYK selling to the 0.8070 levels and a quiet range to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Apr A 51.8| P 54.5 | R 54.6
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Ex Inflation Q/Q Q1 A 2.70% | C 1.60% | P 1.70% | R 1.90%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Apr A 33% | C 22% | P 21%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Apr (P) A 10.40% | P 14.90%
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Mar A 0.00% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI M/M Apr A -0.40% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Y/Y Apr A -1.30% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core M/M Apr A -0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PPI Core Y/Y Apr A 0.80% | C 1.10% | P 0.90%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 9) A 264K | C 271K | P 265K
Good Luck,
Andy
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