Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.938 | EURUSD 1.11679 | AUDUSD 0.77364 | NZDUSD 0.68453 | USDCAD 1.23287 | USDCHF 0.93398 | GBPUSD 1.57284 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 124.07 | 123.77
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1189 | 1.1155
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 138.66 | 138.27
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7759 | 0.7713
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6874 | 0.6849
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2340 | 1.2318
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0438 | 1.0424
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.9344 | 0.9328
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5745 | 1.5707
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71055 | 0.7095
For today
- EUR: With Greek PM Tsipras facing less than an enthusiastic backing by his party, the left of the party my complicate the negotiations further, the fact that Le Pen in France has also put her pennies worth in would suggest that the Eurozone club is likely to be more worried about the contagion politically if the Greeks do exit, this been said the market was reasonably quiet through the session with the market moving off the 1.1160 levels to touch into the mid 1.1185 areas before stalling and holding in the area for a move into the grey hours. With the coming meetings this week likely to keep the market bubbling the problem is more likely to be liquidity as the market becomes more nervous and the possibility of wild moves becoming more distinct as we are starting to see normally there would now be offers around the 1.1200 areas and into the 1.1250 areas however, an announcement either way or comments could see levels being immaterial with the potential for the Euro to move quickly back to the 1.1300 levels and not because of a short squeeze, better offers from that point are likely however, until the market reaches for the 1.1450-1.1500 areas it is likely to be anyone’s guess. Downside has light bids into the 1.1150 area with the likelihood of weak stops through the level and then 1.1100 possibly a little stronger, however a move through this level opens up a test lower and into the 1.1000 is the only barrier for another step lower and May’s ranges.
- GBP: A quiet range for the Cable moving off the opening just below the 1.5730 levels the market moved steadily in the early part of Tokyo to test into the mid 1.5740’s before ranging around that level all the way to the grey hours. Topside offers likely into the 1.5800 areas with the possibility of Cable being a little more than a puppy being pulled along by the Euro, offers strong into the 1.5850 areas with the possibility of a test to the 1.5900 areas if the market has the impetus to break through. Downside see’s bids into the 1.5700 areas and a push here is likely to open up a test to the 1.5600 areas quickly and a deeper move possible for the short term chartist’s however, the 1.5550-1.5500 areas are likely to do the same as yesterday’s move if it were to go that way and the US GDP would be the only reason for an independent move for the Cable.
- JPY: USDJPY has been very quiet with very little moving in the pair and probably even less in the Cross/JPY with the market remaining fairly static, moving from the 123.90 areas to dip once below the 123.80 areas before returning to the level as the market sits back to wait for the next developments in Europe and the US GDP numbers before deciding on a direction. Topside has offers through the 124.00 levels likely to extend to the 124.20-30 areas before a possibility of stops appear however, on a push through the 124.50 levels the market is likely to find plenty willing to sell into the rising market and although the market has already pushed through to the 125.70-80 areas previously we have not heard from the BoJ/MoF this week and that could be a trigger. Downside bids light to the 123.20 areas however, a push through 123.00 is likely to see only light stops and then better bids into the 122.50 levels that has seen several attempts this month already, a strong push could clear this area and then the market opens for a decent big figure and possibly more if the momentum is there.
- AUD: The Oz saw reasonably strong buying once the market moved into the Tokyo session, moving quietly of a weak 0.7730 area the market pushed eventually to the 0.7760 levels before starting a slow slip lower, drifting through the opening levels an then into the 0.7720 areas as weak stops cleared the market through 0.7730 and there the market moves to the London session. Ok so I don’t really like repeating myself but it would seem that the downside bids really begin through the 0.7680 and into the 0.7650 levels, a push through those levels is still not likely to yield too much movement and the Oz remains bid all the way to the years lows and then possibly into the 75 cent level, a break here is likely to see a very strong reaction and the downside opening for a deeper move. Topside offers light through the 0.7770-0.7800 however, the market would need to push strongly through the 0.7840-60 areas to open the topside for a better move however, the market has been reasonably quiet of late and it would more likely come during the Asian session.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
CNY/USD:
China, U.S. Emphasize Common Ground Over Tensions in Summit
China’s Zhang Says U.S. Investment Climate Generally Is Good
USD/CNY:
Treasury Official Says China SDR Goals Drive Financial Reform
CNY:
China May Leading Economic Index Rises 1.1% M/m to 326.2
EUR:
Greek GDP to Grow as Much as 1.5% This Year: Economy Minister
JPY:
Price Expectations Maintained Despite Slow CPI: Some BOJ Members
Amari: Possible to Reach Overall Agreement at July TPP Talks
AUD:
IMF Says RBA Should Stand Ready to Ease if Recovery Stalls
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y May A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index May A 1.10% | P 1.10% | R 1.40%
6:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator May P 1.25
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Jun C 108.2 | P 108.5
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Jun C 114.3 | P 114.3
8:00Â Â Â Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Jun C 102.5 | P 103
8:30Â Â Â Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals May C 43.1K | P 42.1K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q1 (T) C -0.30% | P -0.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q1 (T) C -0.10% | P -0.10%
14:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -2.7M
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: The market moved sideways into the Tokyo session trading around the 1.1340 levels before the market dipped and then dropped quickly, several trains of thought, the fact that EURGBP initially spiked higher before dropping quickly would suggest the market was first bought and then sold aggressively to increase the average selling and/or the market in Cable which was dragged with the Euro hit stops on the move lower and this triggered a deeper move lower. Either way the market moved steadily before hitting stops on the move through the 1.1300 levels triggering stops and moving quickly to the 1.1260 levels and holding for the move into London. London were sellers after a tentative start and the market again started to drift once the better PMI numbers were put out of the way, the market continued a steady push lower and then triggered further stops on the move through the 1.1200 levels to trade into the 1.1140 levels before steadying down and recovering only a little, never quiet making it back through the 1.1200 areas and then drifting in the 1.1160-80 areas to the close, again the market was totally dominated by the Greek saga with lots of talk and nothing concrete however, the Greeks are talking sensibly and the politicians are ingratiating themselves however, the banks are very mixed with some believing it’ll never fly and the others hoping for a windy day to get it off the ground.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.5825 areas the market moved steadily into the Tokyo session before dipping slowly into the 1.5810 areas and then dropping quickly through the level to the 1.5770 areas and then a range play in the 1.5770-80 levels and the move into the London session, London were quick buyers taking the market back higher and then a choppy period with the range back to the lows before settling down to quiet trading into the NYK session, eventually though all though EURGBP was actively sold back to the 0.7100 areas and through to 0.7080 at one stage the Cable still drifted lower with the drag of the Euro to move to the 1.5710 levels with only a minor recovery into the close around 1.5730.
- JPY: USDJPY continued its move higher having pushed off the 123.40 opening areas, weakness in the other majors saw the USD pushing higher through Tokyo and moving into the 123.80 levels and then ranging into the London session, buying into the early NYK saw the market push through the 124.00 levels fairly easily and moving to a whisker from the 124.20 areas before the release of the Durable goods numbers, which were extremely poor and the USD dropped back as quickly as it moved higher. Holding the 123.70 areas the market eventually made its way back to the 124.00 areas however, it was a lacklustre move and was unable to test through the level and drifted into the 123.90 areas for the close. Strong talk from Hilsenrath saw him state that he expected 2 hikes in 2015 although the USD was stronger from that point the market was less inclined to take it as a done deal.
- AUD: Not a massive day for the Oz with a little chop through the day with the market moving lower on EURAUD selling into the Tokyo session dipping to just below the 77 cent levels before recovering into the grey hours and pushing back to the 0.7740 areas into the London open. The cross selling in EURAUD continued to weigh on the Oz as it was pulled lower over the session into the NYK session, Durable good numbers saw the market react strangely and one has to imagine that since the Euro was unable to rally further EURAUD pressure continued and the Oz dipped to the 0.7680 areas before the market reacted to the numbers with a solid rally back through the opening levels and setting the high just short of the 0.7750 levels and then ranging around the 0.7730 levels to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index Apr A -0.30% | P -0.10%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index Q/Q Q1 A 1.60% | C 2.10% | P 1.90% | R 2.00%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 49.9 | C 50.6 | P 50.9
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â HSBC Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 49.6 | C 49.2 | P 49.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 50.5 | C 50.1 | P 49.4
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Jun (P) A 54.1 | C 52.5 | P 52.8
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 51.9 | C 51.5 | P 51.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Jun (P) A 54.2 | C 52.9 | P 53
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Jun (P) A 52.5 | C 52 | P 52.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Jun (P) A 54.4 | C 53.7 | P 53.8
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Jun A -7 | C 3 | P -5
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durable Goods Orders May A -1.80% | C -0.60% | P -0.50% | R -1.00%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Durables Ex Transportation May A 0.60% | C 0.80% | P 0.50% | R -0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Apr A 0.30% | C 0.60% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Home Sales May A 546K | C 513K | P 517K | R 534K
Good Luck,
Andy
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