Euro Holding Up Rather Well For Now Considering…

GBPUSD – technical overview

An impressive rally to fresh 2015 highs has stalled out ahead of the 1.6000 psychological barrier, with the market reversing lower and exposing a drop back towards some internal support at 1.5550. A break and close below 1.5550 will open the door for a more pronounced bearish reversal, while inability to do so will keep the immediate pressure on the topside for an eventual test of 1.6000.

• R2 1.5930 – 18Jun/2015 high – Strong
• R1 1.5803 – 24Jun high – Medium
• S1 1.5667 – 24Jun low  – Medium
• S2 1.5625 – 17Jun low  – Strong

GBPUSD – fundamental overview

Wednesday’s hawkish comments from Bank of England’s Martin Weale didn’t have much influence on this market, with the Pound extending corrective declines off recent 2015 highs. Weale had said rates should rise sooner than later, but lack of any first-tier UK data and a well received final reading of Q1 US GDP weighed on the major pair. Participants have also been a little more cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Governor Carney speech and could be lightening up on long positions into the risk. For today, UK distributive trades will be digested, along with US initial jobless claims, personal spending and personal income data.

USDJPY – technical overview

Although the bullish structure remains firmly intact, following the recent break to fresh multi-year highs, the market has finally entered a period of healthy consolidation after stalling ahead of 126.00. Stretched studies are unwinding from overbought, with room for further weakness to 122.00. But any additional setbacks below 122.00 should be very well supported in favour of a bullish resumption.

• R2 124.45 – 17Jun high – Strong
• R1 124.00 –Figure – Medium
• S1 123.00 – Figure – Medium
• S2 122.45 – 10Jun low – Strong

USDJPY – fundamental overview

More consolidation for the major pair in recent trade, with rallies finding good offers above 124.00. It seems this latest topside failure above the figure has inspired some fresh sell interest from HFT accounts, while short-term specs are bailing out. A pullback in equity markets on Wednesday could also be playing a role in this traditionally risk correlated currency pair. Dealers cite decent stops below 123.00, with heavier stops below 122.40. Looking ahead, US initial jobless claims, personal income and personal spending data are due.

EURCHF – technical overview

The market has finally leveled out after a multi-day drop out from the February high at 1.0815. From here, there is risk for recovery back towards 1.0815 in the days ahead, with any setbacks expected to be very well supported above 1.0400 on a daily close basis. Look for a push back above 1.0575 to strengthen the constructive outlook and accelerate gains.

• R2 1.0700 – 19Mar high – Medium
• R1 1.0575 – 4Jun high – Strong
• S1 1.0403 – 19Jun low – Medium
• S2 1.0305 – 7May low – Strong

EURCHF – fundamental overview

A pickup in the Swiss UBS consumption indicator hasn’t done anything to influence price action, with this market focused on broader macro themes. Lack of any real progress on Greece is the major story and it looks like another week could go by with no deal. Still, the SNB remains committed to act to curb excessive overvaluation in the Franc, particularly if brought on by a fallout in Greece, and we have seen the rate hold up rather well despite the Greek impasse. SNB Jordan is on the wires today and is fully expected to hold with the central bank’s line of being committed to preventing excessive appreciation in the Franc.

AUDUSD – technical overview

Overall, the broader downtrend remains intact after the market stalled out ahead of 0.8200 several days back. Look for a medium-term lower top to now be in place at 0.8163, in favour of the next major downside extension back towards and eventually below the current multi-year base from early April at 0.7533. Any corrective rallies should be well capped ahead of 0.8000, while ultimately, only a break back above 0.8163 will delay the bearish structure.

• R2 0.7849 – 18Jun high – Strong
• R1 0.7771 – 24Jun high – Medium
• S1 0.7679 – 23Jun low – Medium
• S2 0.7646 – 17Jun low – Strong

AUDUSD – fundamental overview

The state of the Aussie jobs market remains clouded, with Wednesday’s department of employment downbeat job vacancy release followed up by a better showing from ABS today. Overall, we have seen a resurgence in demand for the Australian Dollar in recent sessions. Though with the local economic recovery in question and keeping the RBA on the accommodative side, with Greece still hanging in the balance and with the Fed on the verge of liftoff, macro players will be looking to take advantage of the Aussie bounce as an opportunity to build into existing shorts. Looking ahead, we get US initial jobless claims, personal income and personal spending data.

USDCAD – technical overview

The market looks like it may finally have based out at 1.1920, putting in a meaningful medium-term higher low, ahead of the next major upside extension and bullish trend resumption towards the 2015 high at 1.2835. Setbacks should now be well supported in the 1.2200 area, while ultimately, only a daily close back below 1.2127 would delay the constructive outlook. Look for a break back above 1.2563 to confirm the constructive outlook and accelerate gains.

• R2 1.2442 – 9Jun high – Strong
• R1 1.2423 – 24Jun high – Medium
• S1 1.2277 – 24Jun low – Medium
• S2 1.2215 – 19Jun low – Strong

USDCAD – fundamental overview

Lack of any first-tier economic data out of Canada this week has left the Canadian Dollar trading off broader themes and flows. Unfortunately for the Loonie, these themes and flows have been a negative, with the currency selling off on the back of a better than expected second reading of Q1 US GDP and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Greece’s fate. Also contributing to CAD declines has been a retreat in the price of OIL on Wednesday, after the black gold sold off by more than 1%. Looking ahead, it’s all about US initial jobless claims, personal income and personal spending.

NZDUSD – technical overview

The recent break to fresh 2015 and multi-month lows confirms a medium-term lower top at 0.7744 and opens the door for the next major downside extension towards a measured move objective in the 0.6500 area. Daily studies are however looking a little stretched and there is risk for a short-term corrective bounce in the sessions ahead. But any rallies should now be well capped well below 0.7200.

• R2 0.7012 – 17Jun high– Strong
• R1 0.6950 – Mid-Figure– Medium
• S1 0.6845 – 24Jun low – Medium
• S2 0.6815 – 23Jun/2015 low – Strong

NZDUSD – fundamental overview

Exporter and bargain hunter interest have been factoring into recent trade, with Kiwi getting a bit of a boost off this week’s fresh 2015 and multi-year low against the Buck. But overall, with the RBNZ now fully committed to the accommodative side and also happy to talk down the New Zealand Dollar, the outlook continues to favour additional Kiwi weakness. Moreover, global equities are starting to look tired at lofty heights and any sign of capitulation on this front will weigh more heavily on the risk correlated New Zealand Dollar. Looking ahead, we get US initial jobless claims, personal income and personal spending, with New Zealand trade data due shortly after, in early Friday trade.

US SPX 500 – technical overview

The recent break to fresh record highs has stalled out, with the lack of bullish momentum suggesting the market could be exhausted at current levels and poised for a significant corrective decline. Look for a topside failure and daily close back below 2100 to strengthen the outlook open the door for deeper setbacks towards critical support at 2040 over the coming sessions. Ultimately, only a daily close above 2137 negates.

• R2 2137.00 – 19May/Record – Strong
• R1 2130.00 – 22Jun high – Medium
• S1 2100.00 – Psychological – Medium
• S2 2070.00 – 9Jun low – Strong

US SPX 500 – fundamental overview

The equity market has failed to establish any meaningful bullish momentum since breaking to fresh record highs in May and could be at risk of forming a major top. A wave of solid first-tier US economic data over the past few weeks has helped solidify prospects for a sooner than later rate liftoff, and this reality is making it less attractive to be long equities at lofty levels. Ongoing optimism for a Greek deal has helped to keep the market somewhat supported for now, but even with a deal, equity investors will be looking to head for the exits with rates in the US expected to move higher. US initial jobless claims, personal spending and personal income are ahead.

GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview

The market has been very well supported on dips since recovering from the 2014 base. The price action suggests the market could now be poised for a fresh bounce in the sessions ahead, in an attempt to carve out a more meaningful longer-term base. Look for a break back above recent highs at 1232 to strengthen this outlook. Ultimately, only a daily close below 1170 will negate.

• R2 1232.00 – 18May high – Strong
• R1 1206.00 – 18Jun high – Medium
• S1 1163.00 – 5Jun low – Medium
• S2 1143.00 – 17Mar low – Strong

GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview

Despite recent setbacks, the GOLD market continues to show signs of demand on dips. Many investors already feel that with currencies across the board looking less attractive in a low yield environment, and with global equities looking vulnerable at record highs, there is no better place for capital allocation than GOLD. Dealers cite plenty of interest around $1170. Sell stops reported below 1160, buy stops cited above $1235.

Feature – technical overview

USDTRY is locked within a well defined uptrend, with the market consolidating off recently established record highs. A medium-term higher low is in place just over 2.5600, with any setbacks expected to be very well supported above the level ahead of the next major upside extension back above 2.8095. Ultimately, only a break and close below 2.5605 would negate.

• R2 2.8095 – 8Jun/Record – Strong
• R1 2.7500 – 16Jun high – Medium
• S1 2.6445 – 29Apr low – Medium
• S2 2.5605 – 21May low – Strong

Feature – fundamental overview

Some early week optimism for a Greek deal has faded and this is putting pressure back on the downside for the Lira. Throw in the fact that President Erdogan’s government has yet to form a coalition and an unwillingness for the CBRT to consider additional rate hikes despite rising inflation and the outlook for the Lira continues to be quite negative, with the currency at risk for fresh record lows. Moreover, the Fed monetary policy divergence theme is not one to be ignored and is yet another major negative for the Lira outlook, with the Fed on pace to start raising rates in the months ahead.