Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 123.87 | EURUSD 1.12051 | AUDUSD 0.77042 | NZDUSD 0.68895 | USDCAD 1.23842 | USDCHF 0.93371 | GBPUSD 1.57054 |
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Interbank Ranges as of 6am London time
Highs   Lows
USD/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 123.96 | 123.56
EUR/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.1220 | 1.1196
EUR/JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 138.83 | 138.51
AUD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7748 | 0.7698
NZD/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.6924 | 0.6879
USD/CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2393 | 1.2371
EUR/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.0472 | 1.0461
USD/CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.93475 | 0.9333
GBP/USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5713 | 1.5687
EUR/GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.7147 | 0.7133
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session with no real news that would affect the Euro with the market trading around the 1.1200-10 levels for a large period of time, a liquidity injection by the PBOC surprised the market and this was enough to move the Euro to the 1.1220 areas before finding sufficient offers to hold the market in a very lacklustre day. Light offers into the 1.1240 levels will then see the market open a little with the likely 1.1280-1.1300 level improving in size, a push through the levels will likely see weak stops and an open for a test back to the 1.1400 levels. Downside bids into the 1.1150 area are mostly cleared with possibly further light bids to the 1.1100 and then a deeper opening to the 1.1000 levels and then the market looks technically weak. Another meeting today as the Greeks fight for survival without losing their popular vote and the Eurogroup fight for the Eurozone and the politician’s dream of a United States of Europe.
- GBP: Cable remained fairly static through the session moving from just above the 1.5700 level the market tested lower in Tokyo however, 1.5690-1.5710 was all she wrote as the market was left drifting with very little interest as all eyes look towards Europe, whether that will change over the course of the day remains to be seen with only a couple of numbers that could cause any issue. Light Downside bids into the 1.5650 levels however, a push through this level will open up successive sentimental levels with possibly only light bids technically, Cable is not at the moment the master of its own destiny, with the USD pulling one way and the Euro weakness pulling the other the combination of the flows has seen the market rise from the 1.51 level to above the 1.59 level this month and the topside is becoming a little more firm with its rejections, light offers through the 1.5800 levels open up a test to only 1.5850 with stronger offers then likely to make an appearance the closer you get to 1.5900 and through the topside really only opens once there is a strong push through 1.6000 and possibly option plays.
- JPY: The USDJPY struggled with the rest of the market for movement in early trading with the market drifting around the 123.90 opening levels until the PBOC eased by conducting a 7 day reverse repos, which for the Chinese is a liquidity injection, this sent the USDJPY lower on the news for the first real move of the day, trading from the highs around the 123.95 level to the 123.60 areas before finding sufficient support. Topside offers light through the 124.00 levels but increasing once the market moves through 124.20-40 with a possibility of weak stops just beyond that level, a move to the 124.70 areas though is likely to see stronger offers coming into play through to the 125.50 level with a light mixture of stops probably being soaked up by the market, and then strong offers into 126.00 and a long way off on today’s volumes. Downside light bids into the 123.00 areas before again giving way to bids into the 122.50 areas and yield buyers a possibility, a strong push through the level though is likely to see stops come into play and the market opening to the 121.50 and possibly further as the market targets last month’s ranges.
- AUD: The Oz saw a steady climb over the session with reasonable buying throughout the session from onshore with the NZD doing much the same moving off the 77 cent level the market gradually pushed towards the 0.7750 levels before settling into trading around the 0.7740 areas as we head into the grey hours. Offers from the 0.7750 area once pushed through are only likely to leave 15 pips before better offers appear to the 78 cent level however, these are not likely to deter a strong rally and only once you push towards the 0.7840 levels are there likely to be sufficient offerings to slow an ascent with the market needing strong momentum to push beyond the level and open a test to 79 cents. Downside bids light into the 77 cent level with possibly light stops through the level and then a return to ever increasing bids with strong momentum the market could break to the 76 cent level however; from then on the market would need some strong motivation to test to the year’s lows.
Overnight News                                                                                                                        Â
EUR:
Greece Meeting in Brussels Is Now Over, EU Official Says
CNY/USD:
China Welcomes Fed Rate Normalization, Shows U.S. Recovery
USD/CNY:
Lew: Real Test for China Comes When Yuan Under Upward Pressure
CNY:
China-Led AIIB to Operate ‘Transparently,’ Minister Says: Daily
JPY:
Japan’s Amari: Aims for Ministers Agreement on TPP by End July
Japanese Sold Net 892.8 Billion Yen Overseas Debt Last Week
Japan’s Abe Considers Reshuffling Cabinet in Oct.: Mainichi
Japan Must Reform Spending While Rates Still Low: Govt. Adviser
RUB/JPY:
Putin Expects to Visit Japan This Year, Nikkei Says
NZD:
N.Z. Property Investor Lending Rose 7.6% in May, RBNZ Says
RBNZ Hasn’t Made Strong Case for Auckland Rules: Treasury
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German GfK Consumer Sentiment Jul C 10.1 | P 10.2
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Reported Sales Jun C 32 | P 51
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Income May C 0.50% | P 0.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Personal Spending May C 0.60% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator M/M May P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Deflator Y/Y May P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core M/M May C 0.10% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â PCE Core Y/Y May P 1.20%
12:30Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (JUN 20) C 271K | P 267K
Harry Hindsight                  Â
- EUR: Moving off what became the day’s lows Euro’s moved slightly higher from the opening just above the 1.1160 level to push through to just below the 1.1190 level in a slow and uneventful session through Asia, the move into the grey hours was a little more eventful with the market having dipped to the 1.1170 levels early buyers took the market to the 1.1200 levels before struggling through into the London opening with the market limited to 10 pips either side of the figure. Limited action throughout the day as the market awaits the next titbit from the Euro/Greek with both sides at least sitting down long enough to actually reject the proposal’s after discussion, in which case the market moved above 1.1230 before slipping back steadily into the NYK session and slipping eventually back to the 1.1170 levels. With London closed the market moved back above 1.1200-10 and held in that region for the run to the close, volumes were poor at best for the day.
- GBP: Gradually moving higher from the opening 1.5725 areas Cable managed to push to the mid 1.5740’s before struggling into the grey hours, early buying entered the market into the London session with Cable quickly rising to the 1.5800 levels having reached those levels the EURGBP cross moved close to the recent lows and the EURGBP saw reasonable buying in the cross moving the Euro higher but more importantly taking the Cable gradually lower over the course of the session to push through the low opening levels and pushing through the 1.5700 areas and triggering stops to a move to the 1.5670 levels, EURGBP made a move from below the 0.7100 levels and pushed into the 0.7140 areas before slowing, Cable bounced slightly and recovered to above the 1.5700 levels into the later part of the session to finish just above the level.
- JPY: USDJPY saw only a little movement through the Asian session dipping from the opening 123.95 levels into early Tokyo to trade below 123.80 before recovering to the 123.90 levels into the late session BoJ minutes had little impact and it wasn’t until late into the session that the market broke through the 124.00 levels and touched just above 124.10 before again returning to the opening levels into the grey hours, London remained in a similar range with the market again pushing to the downside and then recovering and only once the NYK session started did the USDJPY see some reasonable movement with the market again pushing through the 124.00 level triggering weak stops and then pushing through to the 124.40 levels with US GDP showing a slight improvement to the expected numbers before the market dived back once the market realized negative is negative to finish the day unaltered for the day.
- AUD: The Oz was limited throughout the session however, it was particularly dull through the Asian session moving from the 0.7730 levels to hedge higher into the Tokyo session and pushing towards the 0.7760 levels before sliding through the remainder of the session as the USD became stronger, the move into the London session saw opening buying taking the market to the 0.7770 levels and into the offers before drifting back to hold the 0.7740 levels for the move into NYK, as with the USDJPY the USD had a boost from the GDP figures and the Oz slipped down through the opening again triggering weak stops and a move to the 0.7710 in a rush and a slow push through to the 0.7690 levels to make the lows. The end of London saw the Oz recover a little and the market pushing back above the 0.7700 levels for a quiet close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Corporate Service Price Y/Y May A 0.60% | C 0.40% | P 0.70%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Conference Board Leading Index May A 1.10% | P 1.10% | R 1.40%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â UBS Consumption Indicator May A 1.73 | P 1.25 | R 1.67
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Business Climate Jun A 107.4 | C 108.2 | P 108.5
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Current Assessment Jun A 113.1 | C 114.3 | P 114.3
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German IFO – Expectations Jun A 102 | C 102.5 | P 103
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BBA Mortgage Approvals May A 42.5K | C 43.1K | P 42.1K | R 42.0K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP (Annualized) Q1 (T) A -0.20% | C -0.30% | P -0.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Price Index Q1 (T) A 0.00% | C -0.10% | P -0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -4.9M | C -1.8M | P -2.7M
Good Luck,
Andy
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