Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 110.24 | EURUSD 1.19184 | AUDUSD 0.80045 | NZDUSD 0.72137 | USDCAD 1.2164 | USDCHF 0.96334 | GBPUSD 1.33978 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19232 | 1.19013
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 110.447 | 109.881
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.34052 | 1.33828
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.96450 | 0.96146
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80027 | 0.79866
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.21892 | 1.21584
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72405 | 0.72129
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14819 | 1.14528
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89012 | 0.88849
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 131.549 | 130.902
For today
- EUR: Given events early in the session the market ranged through the session between the 1.1900-20 areas for the most part holding around the 1.1910 areas through into the grey hour, light offers into the 1.1920 areas with possible weak stops above the level however, once the market pushes through towards the 1.1950 areas those offers are likely to increase as congestion abounds through the 1.2000 areas, with increasing offers again as the market starts to reach for the 1.2050 level and another shot at the highs for the year. Downside bids into the 1.1850 areas with weak stops likely on a move through the 1.1840 areas with possibly stronger bids around the 1.1800 areas with congestion likely to increase into the 1.1750 areas.
- GBP: The market remains mired for the moment around the 1.3400 levels with possible option plays around the level, topside offer likely to be congestive into the 1.3440 level before the market opens up to the stronger 1.3500 areas and a larger move above the level in time, downside bids light through to the 1.3150 areas where suspected stronger bids are likely to appear congestion light through to that level however, sentimental levels again could make a showing with the MPC communique yesterday in mind, a push through the 1.3150 areas will likely see stronger congestion appearing on any test through the 1.3100 level.
- JPY: USDJPY opened around the 110.20 areas, and yesterdays news in mind with talk of a missile being moved and deployed ready for firing seems now in hindsight to be precisely what was going on with the market dropping back from the opening range to test into the 109.50 areas as the missile was launched and sailed over Japan, once the event had passed the market resumed around the 110.00 areas and gradually moved higher through the session to push beyond the opening triggering a few weak stops and testing into the grey hour around the 110.50 level, topside is likely to be very light with offers not really appearing until the market again approaches the 111.00 areas with weak stops through the 111.20 areas likely and the market opening to congestive offers into the 111.50 areas last seen in July, while there maybe congestion in the area it would likely to be limited and a further rise to the 112.00 is possible with enough impetus. Downside bids light through to the 109.50 areas with congestive offers running through that level to the stronger bids into the 109.30-00 areas, limited stops below the 109.00 areas is likely to run into stronger bids around the 108.50 level and then weakness through there.
- AUD: The Oz has been reasonably quiet through the session with the market trading for the most part in a narrow 0.7990-0.8000 having dropped back from the opening around the 0.8005 level, Topside offers into the 0.8040 levels for the moment seem to have been the sticking point for the past few days with the market likely to see offers running from the level through to the 0.8060 areas before the market sees light congestion on a move back to the 81 cent level with strong offers from that level through to the 0.8120 areas, weak stops are limited until beyond the 0.8140 areas and possibly mixed at that point with stronger stops possibly through the 0.8160 area and then option barriers.
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Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD/CNY:
US prepares more N. Korea sanctions, targets Chinese banks
USD:
Mnuchin says administration focused on growth over inflation
NZD:
NZ Herald: Herald election forecast predicts labour victory with 8 days to go
NZ August house price index rises 0.5% MoM REINZ
NZ manufacturing expanded at faster pace in August PMI
NZ’s Makhlouf not concerned about Labour’s RBNZ proposals
KRW/JPY:
- Korea launces missile from near Pyongyang toward Japan
CAD:
BoC’s Wilkins: Every BoC rate decision is live
Wilkins: BoC mandate has worked well with inflation around 2%
Wilkins: inflation now below 2% because of temporary factors
Wilkins: Open to looking at sensible alternatives to mandate
Wilkins: not ideal to give markets full plans on rates
Wilkins: says question is whether research shows need for change
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business NZ Manufacturing Index Aug A 57.9 | P 55.4 | R 55.5
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jul C 22.1B | P 22.3B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Empire State Manufacturing Sep C 18 | P 25.2
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Advance Retail Sales Aug C 0.10% | P 0.60%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos Aug C 0.50% | P 0.50%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Aug C 0.10% | P 0.20%
13:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Capacity Utilization Aug C 76.80% | P 76.70%
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â U. of Michigan Confidence Sep (P) C 95.6 | P 96.8
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Business Inventories Jul C 0.20% | P 0.50%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A steady drift through the Asian session, moving off the opening the market pushed into the 1.1995 area before starting the drift through to mid-session and holding the level broadly into the grey hour testing the 1.1865 area, early London saw the market moving off the lows and testing through to the 1.1910 areas and then holding around the 1.1900 through to the NYK session, a drop in the initial jobless claims number saw the market dropping quickly back to the 1.1840 levels before bouncing back to the highs again. With a choppy period moving through to the close in London, once London left the USD again started to slip lower and the Euro pushed to the 1.1920 levels in a limited move to the close.
- GBP: A narrow range through to the London session with Cable holding around the 1.3210 areas testing only to the 1.3220 area and drifting into London just holding the 1.3200 level, the move through to the MPC decision saw the market extending its range however, it was marginal at best the release with no change saw the market quickly back to the 1.3160 level before bouncing hard as the communique hit the markets, while the vote was 7-2 as expected however, all members agreed that monetary policy could need to be tightened by a somewhat greater extent over the forecast period than current market expectations, a very hawkish commentary suggesting a large rise when it comes, Cable pushed through to the 1.3280 levels before slowing its ascent but continuing steadily to rise, the US numbers when released had little impact and the market managed to push towards the 1.3400 levels into the close of London, the move through to the close of the day saw the market holding around the 1.3400 areas in quiet trading.
- JPY: For the most part a very quiet day for the USDJPY, opening around the 110.50 levels the move through into Tokyo saw the market test above the 110.70 areas before slipping back to the opening areas and a slow drift to trade around the 110.40 levels through to the NYK session and the market again trying to break the 110.70 again, the US numbers saw the market initially dip to the lows again before rallying to trade lightly through the 111.00 level and then rejecting the level to extend the low a little, before snapping back tot the Asian range and range in the 110.50-70 levels until the last hour, the last hour saw the market dropping back to the 110.10 level before closing around the 110.20 areas.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7985 level the market drifted back to the 0.7975 area and into the employment numbers, the release of the better than expected numbers saw the market jump to the 0.8015 level before trading in a chopping manner around the 80 cent levels through too deep into the London session, the market dropped quickly on the release to the Us numbers falling back into the 0.7950 areas before starting a slow recovery through to the end of the day probing the 80 cent level again.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â RICS House Price Balance Aug A 6.00% | C 0.00% | P 1.00%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Inflation Expectation Sep A 3.80% | P 4.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Employment Change Aug A 54.2K | C 19.2K | P 27.9K | R 29.3K
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Aug A 5.60% | C 5.60% | P 5.60%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Y/Y Aug A 10.10% | C 10.50% | P 10.40%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Y/Y Aug A 7.80% | C 8.20% | P 8.30%
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Aug A 6.00% | C 6.60% | P 6.40%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Jul (F) A -0.80% | C -0.80% | P -0.80%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB Sight Deposit Interest Rate A -0.75% | C -0.75% | P -0.75%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Upper Target Range A -0.20% | C -0.25% | P -0.25%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SNB 3-Month Libor Lower Target Range A -1.25% | C -1.25% | P -1.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Rate Decision A 0.25% | C 0.25% | P 0.25%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BoE Asset Purchase Target Sep A 435B | C 435B | P 435B
GBP      MPC Official Bank Rate Votes A 2–0—7 | C 2–0—7 | P 2–0–6
GBP      MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes A 0–0—9 | C 0–0—9 | P 0–0–8
CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â New Housing Price Index M/M Jul A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.20%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 09) A 284K | C 300K | P 298K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Aug A 0.40% | C 0.30% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Aug A 1.90% | C 1.80% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.20% | P 0.10%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core Y/Y Aug A 1.70% | C 1.60% | P 1.70%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 91B | C 80B | P 65B
Good Luck,
Andy
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