Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.203 | EURUSD 1.18939 | AUDUSD 0.80316 | NZDUSD 0.73452 | USDCAD 1.23241 | USDCHF 0.9698 | GBPUSD 1.34946 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.18962 | 1.18657
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.647 | 112.278
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35081 | 1.34733
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97186 | 0.96954
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.80342 | 0.79938
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23544 | 1.2324
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73650 | 0.73218
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15456 | 1.15296
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88119 | 0.87978
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.33754 | 133.51
For today
- EUR: Opening just below the 1.1900 areas the market trade quietly through into the Tokyo session with very little difference, Tokyo were light sellers dipping back to a support line around the 1.1865 areas and holding through to the grey hour unable to push back to the opening level but holding around the 1.1880 level, Topside offers light into the 1.1900 areas with weak stops on a push through the 1.1920 areas, and the market likely to be weak on a move back to the 1.2000 areas with stronger offers appearing through the level. Downside bids into the current 1.1860 areas with congestion likely to continue through to the 1.1820 stronger bids weak stops on a move down through the 1.1780 areas but limited stops are likely to be absorbed by congestive bids through the downside.
- GBP: Early gains and a push through the 1.3500 level was light selling and limited volumes going through the market and then drifting lower as the Tokyo session bought light volumes of USD drifting through the 1.3480 areas and then trading quietly into the 1.3500 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers into limited through to the 1.3600 areas now with a push through the level likely to be just as thin with the spike yesterday through to the 1.3660 areas leaving very little until that point, a push through to those levels though could see weak stops appearing and a test through to the 1.3700 areas before stronger offers appear, Downside bids into the 1.3450 areas likely to see stronger bids on a move into the 1.3400 level and the Cable still in a consolidative mode, and while retail sales numbers are relatively fickle at best the underlying still gives a stronger indication than we’ve seen for awhile, weak stops on a move through the 1.3380 areas will likely see sentimental bids appearing.
- JPY: USDJPY moved off the opening 112.20 areas to slowly rise through to the early Tokyo session to the 112.65 areas before trading quietly around the 112.50 areas dipping into the grey hour to the 112.40 levels, Topside offers likely through the 112.80 areas and into the 113.30 level with possible stronger stops on a move through with some congestion on the way higher the market is likely to open to the ranges from early in the year with 113.90-114.60 areas likely to see stronger offers. Downside bids likely to be light through to the 111.50 areas and the point where the market broke higher yesterday, a push through the level could see weak stops and the market testing back to the stronger 111.00 areas with limited stops on a move through and into congestive bids around the 110.50 area.
- AUD: As the USD pushed a little higher through the Asian session so the Oz gave up early gains to the 0.8035 areas slipping back steadily from the highs to move into the grey hour in the 80 cent level, Topside offers through the 0.8090 areas and likely to continue through to the 0.8020 level with stronger offers then holding into the 0.8140-60 and strong stops on a move through that level to open up a test towards the 82 cent area, possible option plays around the 82 cent areas will likely stall the market for the time being however, a push through is likely to see stronger buying moving into the market and RBA still concerned about the stronger Oz. Downside bids light through the 80 cent areas however, a test towards the 0.7950 levels is likely to see stronger bids appearing and congestion through the level and through to 79 cent with mixed bids and possibly lighter stops in the area with the market only opening as the Oz trades through the 0.7880 levels.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
FED forecasts still signal another 2017 hike, 3 more in 2018
FED hurricanes unlikely to alter economy’s course medium term
FED repeats risk to outlook appear roughly balanced
FED to start Balance sheet roll off in October, at pace described in June
Yellen: Recovery will take time for people impacted by storms
Yellen: Payrolls may be impacted in September
Yellen: Factors holding down inflation should be transitory
Yellen: Our understanding of forces behind inflation imperfect
Yellen: Slack in labour market has largely disappeared, recover is on strong track.
EUR/CAD:
Landmark EU, Canada trade deal enters into force
EUR:
New protests as France set to enshrine labour reforms
No need to renegotiate Iran nuclear deal: EU
NZD/AUD:
NZ election surprise may shake Australia’s stock market
BoJ set to keep monetary spigot open, political risk looms
JPY:
Japan PM says time for N. Korea dialogue is over
BoJ leaves interest rate on excess reserves unchanged at -0.10% as expected
Maintains 10yr JGB yield control at about 0.00%
Maintains annual pace of JGB holdings Y80T
AUD:
Interest rate rises could trigger A$1.6trn debt bomb AFR
RBA’s Lowe: Australian economy does look to be improving
Lowe: Economy on course for further progress in jobs, CPI target
Lowe: flexible A$ gives RBA considerable independence over domestic policy timing
Lowe: Monetary policy has little influence on economy’s growth
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Jul A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.40% | R 0.20%
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Economic Forecasts
06:00Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Aug C 2.41B | P 3.51B
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug C 6.5B | P -0.8B
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Wholesale Sales M/M Jul C -0.90% | P -0.50%
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 16) C 302K | P 284K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep C 17.5 | P 18.9
13:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Jul C 0.40% | P 0.10%
14:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep (A) C -1.5 | P -1.5
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Aug C 0.20% | P 0.30%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 91B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A quiet range through to the FOMC with the Euro opening just below the 1.2000 areas and testing through into the early part of Tokyo to the 1.2020 levels before holding into the NYK session around the 1.2020-00 areas for the most part, the move into the NYK session saw the Euro drifting below the figure and then drifting around the 1.2000 level this time from beneath the level, the release of the FOMC and no change saw the market initially rally through towards the 1.2040 areas before the market dropped back just as quickly and the selling following through to the 1.1940 areas before a brief lull in the selling, comments from the Fed suggest that a further rise is inevitable this year and the unwinding of the balance sheet will begin next month, the market renewed the strong USD buying and the Euro again dropped back to the 1.1900 areas with stops triggered along the way and the market tipped into the stronger bids into the 1.1860 areas eventually pushing off the lows late in the session to rise to the 1.1900 level before drifting to the close just above the 1.1880 areas.
- GBP: Opening a little lower the market moved from the 1.3500 areas and pushed back to the 1.3520 level and holding around that level through into the London session, a notoriously inefficient retail sales number saw the high number saw the market run quickly higher through to the 1.3600 levels before dropping back steadily to the opening levels and holding around the 1.3540 areas into early NYK session, the Cable started a steady rise as early NYK buyers moved in with limited topside offers the market pushed almost to the 1.3600 level before the FOMC release, initial USD selling saw the Cable spike to the 1.3660 areas before quickly dropping back through the 1.3540 areas and triggering light stops before pushing through the 1.3500 areas to test the 1.3460 level and a slow rise into the close to finish just below the 1.3500 areas.
- JPY: A slow drift through the Asian session moving off the 111.50 areas to test late into the Tokyo session below the 111.40 areas, the move into London saw light buying back to the opening levels before returning to the slow selling through to make the lows into the 111.20 areas before moving into the NYK session, slowly rising through to the 111.50 areas again before dipping into the FOMC to test 111.10 level and then rising quickly through to the 112.00 areas, offers in the area limited the movement for a short period however, the impetus eventually broke through the level and moved steadily through to the 112.50 areas before dropping back from the highs to the 112.10 area and finishing just off that area.
- AUD: The RBA minutes continued to underpin the market and a slow rise from the lows early in Tokyo around the 80 cent areas and pushing through to the FOMC release in a tight channel to test through the 0.8080 level, the release saw the market spike above the 81 cent levels before dropping quickly to push through the low 80 cent level before finding sufficient support for a bounce from the 0.7990 level to test the 0.8030 areas.
Yesterday’s premiership results
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Current Account Balance Q2 A -0.6B | C -0.89B | P 0.24B | R 0.22B
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (JPY) Aug A 0.37T | C 0.41T | P 0.34T | R 0.36T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Westpac Leading Index M/M Aug A -0.10% | P 0.12%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI M/M Aug A 0.20% | C 0.10% | P 0.20%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German PPI Y/Y Aug A 2.60% | C 2.50% | P 2.30%
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Aug A 1.00% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Existing Home Sales Aug A 5.35M | C 5.46M | P 5.44M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A 4.6M | C 2.8M | P 5.9M
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Rate Decision A 1.25% | C 1.25% | P 1.25%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â FOMC Press Conference
Good Luck,
Andy
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