Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.478 | EURUSD 1.19414 | AUDUSD 0.79339 | NZDUSD 0.7311 | USDCAD 1.23275 | USDCHF 0.97068 | GBPUSD 1.35816 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.19651 | 1.19379
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.556 | 111.659
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.35869 | 1.35673
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97100 | 0.96685
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.79354 | 0.79083
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.23337 | 1.23111
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.73121 | 0.72825
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15931 | 1.15605
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88096 | 0.87903
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 134.388 | 133.507
For today
- EUR: A slow push through the 1.1950 level with the market eventually pushing to the 1.1960 levels with limited volume moving through and the USD seeing a small decline as the rhetoric again builds, Topside offers into the current levels with limited resistance to a move back through the 1.2000 areas, stronger offers likely on a test above the level and especially into the 1.2040-60 areas with PMI numbers today of import, a push through the level will likely see the topside tested to the 1.2080 areas and then stronger offers with possible option plays in the area and stronger stops above the area. Downside bids light through to the 1.1880 areas again where support increases possibly continuing through to the 1.1860-40 levels with weak stops through the level and congestion then to the 1.1800-1.1780 areas.
- GBP: A very quiet session for Cable with PM May’s address in Florence to come and speculation of offers to be placed on the table however, given that expectations for a softer Brexit depend on the offer of €20B instead of the demanded €100B seems a big gulf however, the fact that something is hitting the table has been sufficient to help Cable to the current levels, The market traded around the 1.3580 opening levels with very little variation throughout the session, Topside offers into the 1.3620 areas are likely to be limited with the with stronger offers likely to start appearing on a move through the 1.3640 areas and towards the 1.3700 in particular, However, apart from sentimental levels there is little to suggest that the market could not make stronger highs. Downside bids into the 1.3500 areas with the market finding some congestion on the way through to the 1.3450 areas with weak stops likely on a move lower.
- JPY: Korean rhetoric and the threat to detonate a nuclear device in the Pacific had safe haven flows moving and the USDJPY dropping back from above the 112.50 testing quickly back to the 112.00 areas before pausing for awhile and dipping again, concern with the banking system again saw further losses appearing into the market dropping the USDJPY to lows through to the 111.70 areas before finding some support and rising only weakly to the 111.80 areas. Downside bids congestive around the 111.50 areas before opening for a test to the 111.00 areas and stronger bids appearing in the market, a push through sees limited stops and the market opening to possibly the strongest level into the 110.50 in a congested market. Topside offers through the 112.50 levels with those offers possibly increasing into the 112.80-113.00, a push through the 113.25-30 areas will likely see strong stops appearing however, congestion through to the 114.00 areas is likely to be stronger than we’ve seen on the move up this month has encountered.
- AUD: Opening around the 0.7930 areas the market moved through into the Tokyo session holding the level before dropping back to the 0.7930 areas as the JPY strengthened on KRW news returning to the opening levels for the move through to the grey hour in a quiet session. Downside bids likely into and through the 0.7900 areas, a push through may see some weak stops with congestion through to the 0.7850 level before stronger bids appear and possible stronger bids through to the 78 cent areas. Topside offers light back through the 80 cent levels however, for the moment the market is focused on the Asian situation with KRW, a push through the 80 cent levels will likely see some congestion into the 0.8050 areas and possibly stronger offers on any move to the 81 cent area again.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
USD:
Mnuchin: Executive order expands N. Korea sanctions
ZAR:
- Africa’s SARB keeps repo rate at 6.75% as expected
KRW:
Kim Jong Un says US Pres. Trumps UN address demonstrated insanity and inhumanity KCNA
Kim Jong Un says Trumps address confirmed the North’s nuclear missile advances have been the right path and will continue until the end
Kim Jong Un says N. Korea will consider utmost measures equal to Trumps comments that were a war declaration
Kim Jong UN: UN says US Pres. Trump is mentally deranged KCNA
Kim Jong UN says north will consider corresponding, highest level of har line measure in history against USA KCNA
- Korea foreign minister says may detonate nuclear weapon in Pacific
HKD:
Hong Kong rating cut to AA+ from AAA by S&P outlook stable
JPY:
S&PGR revises Japan bank industry risk to negative from stable
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Manufacturing PMI Sep (P) C 55.5 | P 55.8
07:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Sep (P) C 54.8 | P 54.9
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Manufacturing PMI Sep (P) C 59 | P 59.3
07:30Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Sep (P) C 53.8 | P 53.5
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Sep (P) C 57.2 | P 57.4
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Sep (P) C 54.8 | P 54.7
10:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â CBI Trends Total Orders Sep C 13 | P 13
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.00%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Aug C 1.50% | P 1.20%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Common Y/Y Aug P 1.40%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Trim Y/Y Aug P 1.30%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â CPI Core – Median Y/Y Aug P 1.70%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Jul C 0.30% | P 0.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales Less Autos M/M Jul C 0.50% | P 0.70%
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Manufacturing PMI Sep (P) C 53 | P 52.8
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â US Services PMI Sep (P) C 55.9 | P 56
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Early trading saw the Euro drift through into the Tokyo session testing back lightly to the 1.1865 areas and the supportive areas, holding through to mid-morning the market eventually saw a recovery back to the opening levels and a slow drift into the grey hour, the move through into London saw limited buying with the market eventually moving a little higher once the ECB economic bulletin was released with very little new information testing through to the 1.1920 areas, a drift through to the NYK session saw the market again testing below the 1.1900 areas with early NYK chasing the market back with the market seemingly indifferent to better initial jobless claims,. With the market moving off the 1.1890 levels to push through to the 1.1930 in the first couple of hours of trading, and of London saw the market pushing to the highs for the day in a limited range for the day testing just through the 1.1950 before drifting to a close just off the levels.
- GBP: Cable spent much of the day trading quietly around the 1.3500 levels with a minor dip to the 1.3480 level in mid-morning Tokyo before repeating the move into the NYK session however, with PM speech in Florence to come the market took it as a signal to again renew an attempt to the topside with the market moving towards the London close the full backing of the Government for May helping a rally through to the 1.3580 areas and a slow drift through to the close around the area.
- JPY: Opening around the 11220 areas the market initially pushed slowly through to the Tokyo session testing above the 112.60 areas before drifting through the 112.50-40 area into the grey hours in very quiet trading, early London bought the market to the highs in a test to the 112.70 level however, once the market touched the level it drifted back to the 112.30 areas with some weak longs cutting out for the move into NYK. Limited movement through the NYK session saw the market briefly test back to the opening levels before slowly rising back to hold the 112.50 levels in quiet trading.
- AUD: The Oz declined steadily through the day dropping back from the opening highs around the 0.8035 level testing through into mid-morning in Tokyo to the 80 cent levels and then holding around the area into the grey hour, London were quick sellers with the market dropping back to the 0.7950 areas into early London and while the early sellers found some support the market eventually broke down to test the 0.7920 levels into NYK and the market held through the day to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
NZDÂ Â Â Â Â Â GDP Q/Q Q2 A 0.80% | C 0.80% | P 0.50% | R 0.60%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â All Industry Activity Index M/M Jul A -0.10% | C -0.10% | P 0.40% | R 0.20%
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â SECO Economic Forecasts
CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (CHF) Aug A 3.17B | C 2.41B | P 3.51B | R 3.49B
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â ECB Economic Bulletin
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Aug A 5.1B | C 6.5B | P -0.8B
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 16) A 259K | C 302K | P 284K | R 282K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Sep A 23.8 | C 17.5 | P 18.9
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â House Price Index M/M Jul A 0.20% | C 0.40% | P 0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Consumer Confidence Sep (A) A -1 | C -2 | P -2
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Leading Indicators Aug A 0.40% | C 0.20% | P 0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage A 97B | C 93B | P 91B
Good Luck,
Andy
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.
LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.
Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.
If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.