Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.849 | EURUSD 1.17444 | AUDUSD 0.78357 | NZDUSD 0.7154 | USDCAD 1.24863 | USDCHF 0.97357 | GBPUSD 1.32386 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17799 | 1.17372
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.888 | 112.508
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32736 | 1.32354
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97399 | 0.9710
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78753 | 0.78301
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24950 | 1.24574
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.72060 | 0.71472
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14445 | 1.14274
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88789 | 0.88666
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.636 | 132.40
For today
- EUR: Drifting a little from the opening the market tested through the 1.1740 level before moving into the Tokyo session, the market lifted with Tokyo Fix seeing USD selling and the Euro was able to push through to the 1.1780 areas and then a slow range through to the grey hour holding the 1.1770 levels, Downside bids into the 1.1700 areas with the market likely to see congestion through to the 1.1660 areas and possible strong stops likely to appear and the market open to a deeper move, Topside offers light through to the 1.1800 areas with some light congestion beginning to build in the area, weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1820 areas and the market likely to be weak through to the 1.1850 areas with increasing congestion through the level to the 1.1900 areas.
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3235 areas moving quietly through into the Tokyo session and quickly testing higher as USD selling moved into the market testing quickly through the 1.3250 levels and continuing to run to the 1.3270 level before running into limited offers, the market then held in a tight range through to the grey hour in the 1.3265-70 areas. Downside bids into the 1.3220 areas and likely to continue through the 1.3200 level however, the congestion below the figure is likely to be weak and stops will possibly push the market through to the 1.3150 levels with some limited congestion through the sentimental areas and into the possibly little stronger 1.3100 areas. Topside offers likely to be building through the 1.3300 areas and with Brexit arguments possibly pushing in the wrong direction we are hearing talk of a hard Brexit again and no deal on the table as has been pointed out many times this will have an adverse effect on both the UK and EU so given this the topside is possibly becoming a little stronger from 1.3300 onwards with weak stops through the level likely to move into stronger offers again from the 1.3350 area onwards.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.85 areas with a limited attempt to the 112.90 levels before moving into the Tokyo session and fixing supply saw the market test to the 112.60 areas holding in the area with limited push towards the 112.50 level before ranging through to the grey hour holding the 112.60-70 level. Topside offers remain above the 113.00 level with light offers around the area from short term sellers with weak stops on a break of the stronger offers around the 113.50 areas, and while the market will likely struggle to break the level a push through will likely see a quick move towards the 114.00 levels with possibly strong offers from the 113.80 areas onwards. Downside bids light through to the 112.00-111.80 level where the market is likely to see strong bids again with the market very congested in the area, weak stops through the level are likely to be absorbed and the market struggling to move lower through to the 111.00 areas with the congestion continuing to that level, a breakthrough of the level will likely see no relief for the sellers with the 110.50 area likely to be a stronger key level for any further moves lower.
- AUD: The only move of the day was USD selling into the Tokyo session with the market opening around the 0.7835 areas and rising through the 0.7850 level and a steady rise from there into the 0.7875 levels before drifting back to hold the 0.7860 areas into the grey hour, Topside offers into the 79 cent areas are likely to have rebuilt over the past week and the level is likely to be stronger than it was with weak stops on a move through the 0.7920 areas however, from 0.7950 onwards the market is likely to increase in resistance to the move with the 80 cent level again becoming the focus. Downside bids into the 0.7775 level with an old trend line defining the downside range for the moment, a push through the level will likely see strong stops appearing and the market opening to the 77 cent area before stronger bids reappear.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
KRW:
- Korea accuses US of blocking development
EUR:
Spain’s King denounces Catalan independence bid
France backs tough anti-terrorism bill after wave of attacks
GBP/EUR:
UK’s Fox slams EU for slow progress in Brexit talks
EUR/GBP:
EU parliament mauls UK’s Brexit progress, May urged to sack Boris
AUD:
Australia’s long home building boom has life in it yet
USD:
White House to request $29B for hurricane relief
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep A -0.10% | P -0.30%
07:45Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Sep C 55 | P 55.1
07:50Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Sep (F) C 57.1 | P 57.1
07:55Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Sep (F) C 55.6 | P 55.6
08:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Sep (F) C 55.6 | P 55.6
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Sep C 53.2 | P 53.2
09:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug C 0.30% | P -0.30%
12:15Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Sep C 140K | P 237K
13:45Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Sep (F) C 55.1 | P 55.1
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Sep C 55.5 | P 55.3
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories P -1.8M
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: A reasonably quiet day with the market opening around the 1.1735 areas and holding around the level through into the Tokyo session, the market dipped through to the 1.1710 areas on USD buying and the market then languished through to the grey hour, the market eventually tested the 1.1700 levels lightly before starting a steady climb higher through into the first hour or so of the London session to push at the 1.1750 areas breaking through just before the NYK session opened and pushing through to the 1.1760 levels, NYK opening saw the market chased a little lower however with no US data the market bounced off the opening levels and immediately pushed to increase the highs test through the 1.1775 areas, the market drifted from those highs slipping back to below the 1.1750 levels for the close.
- GBP: Cable face the same movement in the USD early into the Tokyo session having held the opening around the 1.3275 level to drop quickly back to the 1.3250 area before holding briefly and then following through to test the 1.3230 level, the market bounced off the level a little and moved back above the 1.3250 levels to hold through to the grey hour, early London were quick buyers with the move into London continuing and a test through to just below the 1.3290 level before holding quietly and dropping quickly when the construction number was released, the market again tested below the 1.3250 areas with the market never able to move back towards the highs throughout the day, the move into the NYK session saw the lows extended to the 1.3225 areas from the opening with the market recovering and testing back to trade around the 1.3250 levels and drifting through to the close below that level.
- JPY: USDJPY moved through a quiet opening period in Asia before rising quickly through to the 113.15 areas from the opening around the 112.70 level, Asia then held above the 113.00 area for the bulk of the session and while the market gravitated to the figure areas the market held in a tight range through to the NYK session before dipping back to the early lows around the 112.65 areas and then slowly rising back to hold around the 112.80 on very quiet trading for the pair.
- AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with potential to break lower but finding sufficient support to hold the market through the end of Asia and early London, opening around the 0.7830 level the market slipped a little back as the USD rallied during the early part of the Tokyo session with the market making a couple of stepped moves down to the 0.7800 areas the market dipped to its lows as it moved into the grey hour with London immediately moving in to take the market back to the 0.7820 areas and ranging between the 0.7800-20 level and never again testing below the 0.7790 level. The move into the NYK session saw the market rising slowly to push above the 0.7840 areas but with very little movement generally for the day.
Yesterday’s premiership results
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Monetary Base Y/Y Sep A 15.60% | C 16.30% | P 16.30%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Approvals M/M Aug A 0.00% | C 1.00% | P -1.70% | R -1.20%
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â RBA Rate Decision A 1.50% | C 1.50% | P 1.50%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Consumer Confidence Sep A 43.9 | C 43.5 | P 43.3
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction PMI Sep A 48.1 | C 51.1 | P 51.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI M/M Aug A 0.30% | C 0.10% | P 0.00%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone PPI Y/Y Aug A 2.50% | C 2.30% | P 2.00%
Good Luck,
Andy
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