Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.756 | EURUSD 1.17597 | AUDUSD 0.78627 | NZDUSD 0.71653 | USDCAD 1.2768 | USDCHF 0.97505 | GBPUSD 1.32483 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17641 | 1.17513
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.921 | 112.698
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.32510 | 1.32291
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97564 | 0.97475
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.78654 | 0.78244
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.24923 | 1.24738
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.71669 | 0.71465
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.14689 | 1.14609
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.88846 | 0.88767
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.726 | 132.472
For today
- EUR: A very quiet session for the most part with Euro dipping from the opening around the 1.1760 areas to dip into the Tokyo session to just above the 1.1750 areas. The move into the grey hours saw the Euro holding around the 1.1755 levels. Downside bids into the 1.1700 levels are likely to continue through the level to the 1.1660 area and possibly stronger bids into the level with weak stops likely on a push through the 1.1640 areas and opening a larger drop with limited sentimental bids into the 1.1600 areas, sentimental levels continue to dominate the downside and possibly only weakly until the market touches through to the 1.1500 areas and then likely stronger bids appearing through the level. Topside offers light through to the 1.1780 level with possibly some limited offers through the 1.1800 areas a push through the 1.1820 area is likely to see some stops appearing however, the market will likely see stronger offers then moving in around the 1.1850 areas and the bottom of the Sep range, congestion likely to
- GBP: Opening around the 1.3245 areas the market dipped from the opening and then slipped further as the market moved into the Tokyo session to the 1.3230 levels, the market then struggled back to the opening levels as the market moved to the grey hour, Downside bids into the 1.3220 levels likely to continue through to the 1.3190 areas before stops appear with the market likely to see reasonable bids continuing around the sentimental levels with limited support the market is open to the stronger 1.3050 level were better bids are likely. Topside offers limited with some limited offers likely through the 1.3300 areas with possible strong stops on a push through the level and limited congestion through the sentimental levels.
- JPY: USDJPY moved slowly through to the 112.80 levels from the opening levels and the move into the Tokyo session saw the market moving steadily to test through the 112.90 levels before returning to the opening levels and holding through the bulk of the session around the 112.75 areas. Topside offers through the 113.00 levels are proving rather tough with the market having tested the resistance into the 113.25 areas several times now however, a strong push through the level will likely see strong stops appearing from weak shorts to take the market to the 113.50 areas before running into another line in the sand, if the market can break through the level then 113.80 onwards is likely to be just as strong, Downside bids light through the 112.00 levels and the market lightly congested through to the stronger 111.00 areas however, a push through the level will likely see some weak stops and the market open to another run at the 110.00 areas with congestion continuing.
- AUD: The one mover for the day with the market opening around the 0.7865 areas and moved through into the Tokyo session before the release of the numbers, Trade balance numbers were better than expected however, the retail sales numbers were not so pleasant and the lowest numbers saw the market drop quickly through to the 0.7830 levels making 0.7825 low before holding around the 0.7830 are to the grey hour. Downside bids remain through the 78 cent level with support likely to continue to the 0.7775 levels a break here though will likely see stops in size appearing and the market quickly moving towards the 77 cent level before stronger bids start to appear, and a very congested area protecting the 72-77 cent range that we saw last year and earlier this year. Topside offers light through to the 79 cent level with limited stops along the way some light offers possibly into the 0.7840-60 areas however, a push through the 79 cent level will likely start to see stronger offers at each sentimental level, so 0.7950, 0.8000 and so on with the market likely to become more resistant the further it reaches.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
GBP:
Head of FCA warns of increasing consumer indebtedness
USD:
Yellen says Fed is working on tailoring regulations to bank size
NZD:
New Zealand’s operating surplus higher than expected for this fiscal year
USD:
US business groups say WTO unable to curb many Chinese trade practices
US services growth hits 12-year record in September
Yellen says Fed is working on tailoring regulations to bank size
USD/JPY:
Trump, Japan’s Abe agree to keep putting pressure on N. Korea
AUD:
Australia retailers suffer worst sales decline in August since early 2013
JPY:
Japan election a branding battle as party pledges converge
RUB/OPEC:
Putin says oil pact with OPEC may be extended to end of 2018
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance (AUD) Aug A 0.99B | C 0.87B | P 0.46B | R 0.81B
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Retail Sales M/M Aug A -0.60% | C 0.30% | P 0.00% | -0.20%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI M/M Sep C 0.20% | P 0.00%
07:15Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â CPI Y/Y Sep C 0.60% | P 0.50%
08:10Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail PMI Sep P 50.8
11:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Sep P 5.10%
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Aug C -2.7B | P -3.0B
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 30) C 263K | P 272K
12:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Trade Balance Aug C -43.0B | P -43.7B
14:00Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Factory Orders Aug C 0.90% | P -3.30%
14:30Â Â Â Â USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Natural Gas Storage P 58B
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1745 areas and making a move higher through into the Tokyo session pushing to the 1.1780 area before ranging quietly through to the London session in the 1.1770 level, the move into the grey hour saw the Euro drop back as weaker PMI numbers started to appear with Italy and France weaker and Germany in line finally weaker retail sales and the market testing the 1.1750 level the level it based along through the session, EU made some chatter about the time to talk in the Catalonia crisis, and as usual a little too late, it was enough to support the market a little and the move into the NYK session saw the market testing the highs again and the actual opening in NYK saw those highs extended through the 1.1785 area before dropping quickly back to trade around the 1.1750 area again with US early numbers broadly in line with expectations and the Euro held around the 1.1760 areas to the close in quiet trading.
- GBP: As with the Euro a quiet start through into the Tokyo session and a strong rally through to the 1.3270 areas from the opening around the 1.3225 level, the market continued to rise slowly through the Asian session before dipping back as the London session started to test through to the 1.3245 levels and holding until the Services number was released, the market gapped a little higher and the market extended the highs to the 1.3285 level, the market chopped around the 1.3260-85 areas through into the NYK session with the market only sagging back to the 1.3250 areas into the late part of the NYK session holding around the level through to the close.
- JPY: A weaker USD as the market moved into the Tokyo session with the market dropping back from the 112.85 areas to hold just above the 112.50 areas for the most part through to the grey hour, the move into the London session saw very little movement initially with the USDJPY slipping slowly as the market moved into the NYK session to test towards the 112.35 areas, NYK were steady buyers pushing to the 112.65 level before bouncing quickly higher to test the 112.90 areas before drifting through to the close quietly.
- AUD: General weakness into the Tokyo session saw the market move off the 0.7830 lows to test through to the 0.7865 areas before slowing however, it did continue to test higher and managed to post the 0.7875 area high before slipping and holding through to the grey hour around the 0.7860 areas, London were sellers from the opening however, the 0.7850 level became the base for the market for the move into the Tokyo session and the market again regained the higher areas, NYK sold the market back and the market dipped back to the 0.7840 areas before starting to rise slowly through to the close.
Yesterday’s premiership results
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep A -0.10% | P -0.30%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Italy Services PMI Sep A 53.2 | C 55 | P 55.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â France Services PMI Sep (F) A 57 | C 57.1 | P 57.1
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Germany Services PMI Sep (F) A 55.6 | C 55.6 | P 55.6
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Services PMI Sep (F) A 55.8 | C 55.6 | P 55.6
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Sep A 53.6 | C 53.2 | P 53.2
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug A -0.50% | C 0.30% | P -0.30%
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ADP Employment Change Sep A 135K | C 140K | P 237K | R 228K
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Services PMI Sep (F) A 55.3 | C 55.1 | P 55.1
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Sep A 59.8 | C 55.5 | P 55.3
USDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Crude Oil Inventories A -6M | C -0.5M | P -1.8M
Good Luck,
Andy
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