Andy Harrison
Good morning,
LMAX Close
USDJPY 112.685 | EURUSD 1.17411 | AUDUSD 0.77541 | NZDUSD 0.70706 | USDCAD 1.25512 | USDCHF 0.97971 | GBPUSD 1.31416 |
LMAX Highs and Lows 5am GMT
                               High | Low
EURUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.17823 | 1.17397
USDJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 112.829 | 112.581
GBPUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.31705 | 1.31309
USDCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.97987 | 0.97731
AUDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.77901 | 0.77499
USDCADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.25555 | 1.25167
NZDUSDÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.70880 | 0.70560
EURCHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.15170 | 1.15025
EURGBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 0.89492 | 0.89325
EURJPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 132.708 | 132.277
For today
- EUR: Euro’s rose quickly once it moved into the Tokyo session with a move through the 1.1780 area before drifting off through to range around the 1.1770 areas with little news, Topside offers into the 1.1800 areas with weak stops likely on a push through the level and then stronger offers starting to appear on a move into the 1.1840-60 levels and likely to continue through to the 1.1880-1.1900 where the market is likely to be a lot stronger, with congestion likely through the level and the offers favouring the sentimental areas, Downside bids light through to the 1.1700 areas with a little bit better support through to the 1.1680 areas however, downside better bids are likely to be into the 1.1660 areas and weak stops likely to appear on a break of the level with the 1.1600 becoming vulnerable to a test.
- GBP: Cable quietly moved above the 1.3150 levels in early Tokyo to test the 1.3170 areas before dipping back to hold around the 1.3160 areas through to the grey hour, a stronger day yesterday for May saw the Cable moving higher and the Topside offers through the 1.3200 are likely to be present and of reasonable size however, a push through the level will likely see weak stops and very little to stop a push to the 1.3300 areas if the market has momentum behind it, larger stops are likely beyond that level and the market opens to a return to the 1.3500 level in time. Downside bids light through to the 1.3050 levels and bids increase beyond that level and through to the 1.3000 areas however, a break below the level will likely see stops appearing and the market weaker until through the 1.2950 areas.
- JPY: USDJPY remained quiet today with the market moving through into the Tokyo session holding around the opening levels before testing briefly above the 112.80 level into the fix before dipping back to test the 112.60 level in late trading, topside offers light through to the 113.00 areas with increasing offers from then on through to the 113.25-50 areas with possibly strong stops on a push through the level before running into the sentimental levels around the 113.80-114.00 level however, a break above the levels should see the market pushing for a move towards the May July highs with possibly stronger offers into that area with again strong stops above. Downside bids light through the current levels with some congestion around the 112.00 levels and weak stops on a move through the 111.80 areas and the market then open to 111.00 area and thickening as the USDJPY dips towards the 110.50 areas and stronger congestion.
- AUD: The Oz moved quietly through to the Tokyo session before starting a steady climb from the 0.7750 low to the 0.7790 level as the market took heart from the stronger business numbers, the move through to the grey hours saw a limited range around the 0.7780-85 for the most part, topside offers into the 78 cent level are likely to be light for the time being however, possible weak stops on a push through the level with light congestion around the 0.7850 areas, once through the 0.7860 areas the 79 cent level is likely to become the target and the market has the potential to get there however, stronger offers are likely and very congestive over the past two months in the area, downside bids into the 0.7750 level and although we have pushed through recently the market still remains fairly strong even if technically weak with the market open to the stronger 77 cent levels.
Overnight News                                                                 Â
EUR:
Public-sector strikes add to pressure on France’s Macron
Eurogroup head Dijsselbloem to step down in January
Catalan leaders under pressure over independence threat
CNY:
China central bank boss calls for reform amid congress countdown
AUD:
Australia business activity holds strong despite retail woes survey
UN:
Slaps global port ban on ships for N. Korea sanctions violations
GBP:
UK consumers spend more to meet higher food and clothing prices
EUR/GBP:
Brexit talks stutter, but EU leaders might give May a break or fear the no deal
Today’s data
Actual = A | Consensus = C | Previous = P | Revised = R All timings GMT
GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y Sep A 1.90% | P 1.30%
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Current Account (JPY) Aug A 2.27T | C 1.98T | P 2.03T
AUDÂ Â Â Â Â Â NAB Business Confidence Sep A 7 | P 5
JPYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Eco Watchers Survey Current Sep A 51.3 | C 49.9 | P 49.7
05:45Â Â Â Â CHFÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Unemployment Rate Sep C 3.20% | P 3.20%
06:00Â Â Â Â EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Trade Balance (EUR) Aug C 20.1B | P 19.5B
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.20%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Industrial Production Y/Y Aug C 0.90% | P 0.40%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production M/M Aug C 0.20% | P 0.50%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Manufacturing Production Y/Y Aug C 1.90% | P 1.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Construction Output M/M Aug C 0.00% | P -0.90%
08:30Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Aug C -11.2B | P -11.6B
12:00Â Â Â Â GBPÂ Â Â Â Â Â NIESR GDP Estimate Sep P 0.40%
12:15Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Housing Starts Sep P 223.2K
12:30Â Â Â Â CADÂ Â Â Â Â Â Building Permits M/M Aug P -3.50%
Harry Hindsight
- EUR: Opening around the 1.1735 level the market traded in a narrow range with US and Tokyo bank holidays to contend with the market initially ranged around the opening level through to the London session with small pushes towards the 1.1730 areas and then up above the 1.1745 area before drifting back to the opening levels, early London extended the lows testing back to the 1.1725 level and then a slow drift through to 1.1720 before picking up from the level on the back of stronger German IP numbers to push through to the NYK session just below the 1.1750 levels again, the run to the end of the official session in London saw the market ranging between the 1.1725-45 levels before starting a steady firm rise through the 1.1750 level and range tightly through to the close dipping on light profit taking to finish only just higher than the opening.
- GBP: Cable opened higher after another weekend of chatter about PM May’s hold on the leadership of the government however, given she did seem to step up a little the market openined around the 1.3090 levels and traded around the 1.3080 areas for a long period before slowly pushing through the 1.3100 area into the grey hour, London were able only to initially take the market to the 1.3120 areas and further gains didn’t materialize until after the limited data and a run then through to test through the 1.3150 level weak offers in the area gave way and the market ran to the 1.3180 levels before meeting sufficient amounts to curb the rise and the market again slipped back to the 1.3130 areas before ranging to the close around the 1.3140-50 level.
- JPY: Opening around the 112.60 levels the market dipped in early trading to make the lows into the 112.30’s before recovering as the market moved into the Tokyo session, the run through the rest of the day was very quiet with the market ranging around the opening levels deep into the London session before stepping up to trade around the 112.70 in a very quiet session, with one minor dip late in the session as day traders covered there longs and the day finishing just in positive territory.
- AUD: Oz drifted from the opening levels with weaker than expected PMI numbers in China seeing the Oz dropping back for the 0.7775 holding area to test the 0.7765, the market continued to run a little lower through into the London session to base along the 0.7750 areas in limited action and the run through to the close saw the market making a limited rally to the 65 area again before closing just off the lows.
Yesterday’s premiership results
CNYÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Caixin PMI Services Sep A 50.6 | C 53.1 | P 52.7
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â German Industrial Production M/M Aug A 2.60% | C 0.90% | P 0.00% | R -0.10%
EURÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Oct A 29.7 | C 28.5 | P 28.2
Good Luck,
Andy
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