Next 24 hours: More Profit Taking on USD Longs
Today’s report: Catalonia Referendum and Fear of Ripples
The Catalonia referendum has come back into the spotlight on Tuesday as the market looks on to see how events unfold in Spain. Clearly the risk for instability and contagion are variables that could unnerve investor sentiment and ultimately weigh on correlated assets.
Wake-up call
Chart talk: Major markets technical overview video
- Catalonia risk
- revision boosts
- election polls
- SNB strategy
- NAB business
- BoC speak
- Peters comments
- dismissing warnings
- Uncertainty
- USDZARÂ
Peformance chart: Five day performance v. US dollar
Suggested reading
- Is This the Meltup?, M. DeCambre, MarketWatch (October 9, 2017)
- The Many Virtues of Simplicity, D. Merkel, The Alef Blog (October 7, 2017)
Chart talk: Technical & fundamental highlights
Choose pair:
EURUSD – technical overview
The uptrend in 2017 has stalled out for now after the market triggered a head and shoulders topping formation and broke back below the 50-Day SMA for the first time since the Euro broke out earlier this year. The measured move extension off the head shoulders top projects a drop to 1.1555, just under the 100-Day SMA. Next support comes in at 1.1663 and only a daily close back above 1.1900 will negate the current bearish outlook.
EURUSD – fundamental overview
The Catalonia referendum has come back into the spotlight on Tuesday as the market looks on to see how events unfold in Spain. Clearly the risk for instability and contagion are variables that could unnerve investor sentiment and ultimately weigh on correlated assets. The Euro has however found some bids in the early week on the back of Monday’s upbeat data out of the Eurozone and hawkish ECB comments. Looking ahead, the market will continue to monitor the developments out of Spain, while taking in German trade data.
GBPUSD – technical overview
The market has entered a period of correction since topping out at a fresh 2017 high in September, with the price dropping back into the 1.3000 area. However, setbacks below the psychological barrier should be limited, with the greater risk for the formation of that next meaningful higher low ahead of a continuation of the newly formed uptrend in 2017.
GBPUSD – fundamental overview
The Pound has done a good job recovering in the new week after underperforming over the past several days. It seems an upward revision to Q2 unit labour costs has been a primary catalyst for this latest bounce as it has stoked renewed optimism for BOE tightening given the implication of higher inflation readings. Meanwhile, talk of the PM reshuffling the cabinet has seemingly helped to diffuse fear of her job security, also helping the UK currency a bit. Still, political risks remain as the Brexit outlook looks quite uncertain and prospects for a difficult path forward become a more legitimate reality. Looking ahead, Tuesday will be about the political developments and economic data that features UK industrial production, trade and NIESR GDP estimates.
USDJPY – technical overview
The market has been confined to a range trade for much of 2017, with rallies well capped ahead of 115.00 and dips well supported below 108.00. The recent run up is therefore expected to stall out yet again into the resistance zone ahead of renewed downside pressure and bearish decline back towards the range low. Only a clear break above 115.00 or back below 107.00 would negate the outlook.
USDJPY – fundamental overview
Renewed North Korea tension hasn’t had any real impact on price action thus far this week and we’re just coming out of holidays in Japan and the US. There has been some talk of USDJPY demand on fading support for Koike’s party in the election polls and her comments that a sudden change in BOJ policy would not be desirable, though ultimately, the Yen hasn’t really moved all that much on the news. It continues to come down to the primary drivers of the Fed policy outlook and broader risk sentiment. Looking ahead, the market will monitor the developments out of Spain, while taking in Fed Kashkari speak later in the day.
EURCHF – technical overview
A period of multi-day consolidation has been broken, with the market pushing up to a fresh 2017 high beyond 1.1600. The bullish break could now get the uptrend thinking about a test of that major barrier at 1.2000 further up. In the interim, look for any setbacks to be very well supported ahead of 1.1200, while only back below the figure would delay the overall constructive tone.
EURCHF – fundamental overview
The SNB kept with its general policy line when it met last month and there were no major waves from the event risk. The one notable exception was the language relating to the strength of the Franc, with the SNB viewing the Franc as “highly valued” rather than significantly overvalued. This was a downgrade to the level of concern over the currency’s strength, but again, not much of a reaction. Overall, the sell-off in the Franc in 2017 has been a welcome development for the SNB. Still, the central bank will need to be careful as the record run in the US stock market has been a big boost to the SNB’s strategy. Any signs of capitulation on that front, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc, which could put the SNB in a more challenging position to weaken the Franc. Interestingly, the latest surge in stocks has failed to bolster the exchange rate.
AUDUSD – technical overview
Despite rallying to a fresh +2 year high in September, the market has been unable to hold onto gains, quickly reversing course and trading back below 0.8000. There is now risk for the formation of a more meaningful top opening the door for the next downside extension towards 0.7500. Look for rallies to now be well capped ahead of 0.8000, with only a close back above the psychological barrier to put the pressure back on the topside.
AUDUSD – fundamental overview
Tuesday’s Aussie NAB business conditions and business confidence readings came in mixed, while RBA Debelle was on the wires but didn’t seem to have any impact on the market. There has been some Aussie demand into Tuesday, with the price action mostly attributed to broad based profit taking on US Dollar longs. Overall however, the Australian Dollar is still getting sold into any rallies, with the currency feeling the pressure of an RBA that hasn’t welcomed the higher exchange rate, softer economic data and slumping iron ore prices. Meanwhile, things have been looking up for the US Dollar as economic data is improving, the Fed is in a position to be thinking about a more aggressive rate hike timeline and Trump reflation bets pick up. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is exceptionally thin and the focus will be on risk sentiment, Spain and a speech from the dovish Fed Kashkari later in the day.
USDCAD – technical overview
Despite the September breakdown to a fresh 2017 and +2 year low, stretched medium-term technical studies continue to warn of the possibility for a more significant bullish reversal as oscillators turn up again. From here, there’s room for a push to retest key resistance in the form of the August peak at 1.2780, while any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2300.
USDCAD – fundamental overview
Last Friday’s Canada jobs report came in above forecast and has helped to open a minor rally in the Canadian Dollar, while broad based profit taking on US Dollar longs has also helped the Loonie into the new week. But overall, it hasn’t been a good run of developments for the Canadian Dollar since the Bank of Canada opted to catch the market off guard and hike rates for a second consecutive time last month. While Canada employment data was solid, it’s been overshadowed by discouraging trade data, GDP, manufacturing, retail sales, subdued inflation and scaled back BoC Poloz comments. At the same time, the Fed’s more hawkish leaning shift, revival of the Trump reflation trade and healthy US data are giving the US Dollar a bid of its own. Remember, last Friday’s US jobs report had impressive components that easily held up to the Canada report despite the NFP print which was a one off given the hurricanes. Looking ahead, we get Canada housing starts and building permits along with speeches from Fed Kashkari and BoC Wilkins.
NZDUSD – technical overview
Medium term studies have turned down after the market pushed up to a plus two year high through 0.7500 in late July. A recent break below 0.7200 warns of the possibility for a more meaningful reversal, that could be setting the stage for a drop all the way back down towards the 2017 low in the 0.6800s. Any rallies should now be very well capped ahead of 0.7300.
NZDUSD – fundamental overview
Uncertainty post the New Zealand election has been an added drag on an already ailing Kiwi rate that has been suffering from a downturn in the economic outlook. The latest comments from NZ First leader Peters have managed to open renewed selling interest in the commodity currency despite a wave of broad based profit taking on US Dollar longs into the new week. Peters welcomed the retreat in the local currency and had investors thinking about the impact the new government could have on RBNZ policy, which would influence the mandate to a place where the focus would be less interest rate sensitive. Looking ahead, the economic calendar is exceptionally thin and the focus will be on risk sentiment, Spain and a speech from the dovish Fed Kashkari later in the day.
US SPX 500 – technical overview
The market continues to shrug off overextended longer term technical readings, once again pushing up to fresh record highs. The latest break now opens the door for the possibility of a run to that next major barrier at 2600. At this point, it would take a daily close back below 2487 at a minimum to take the pressure off the topside, while a break all the way back below 2400 would be required to force a bearish structural shift.
US SPX 500 – fundamental overview
The US equity market continues to be well supported on dips, pushing further into record high territory. It seems the combination of blind momentum and expectation of favourable US policies are helping to keep the move going. But at the same time, there’s a nervous tension out there as the VIX sits at unnervingly depressed levels. The fact that Fed policy is normalising, however slow, could start to resonate a little more, with stimulus efforts exhausted, balance sheet reduction coming into play and another rate hike still on the cards this year. Last Friday’s jump in hourly earnings only adds pressure on the Fed to raise rates more aggressively, something that should make equity market valuations less attractive. But for now, it’s more of the same. It will take a breakdown in this market back below 2500 to turn heads.
GOLD (SPOT) – technical overview
Setbacks have been well supported over the past several months, with the market continuing to put in higher lows and higher highs, opening a recent push to a fresh 2017 high up around 1357. And so, look for the latest round of weakness to once again be well supported on the dip, with a higher low sought out ahead of 1250 ahead of the next major upside extension and bullish continuation towards a retest of the 2016 peak at 1375 further up. Ultimately, only a drop back below 1200 would negate the outlook.
GOLD (SPOT) – fundamental overview
Solid demand from medium and longer-term players continues to emerge on dips, with these players more concerned about exhausted monetary policy, extended global equities, political uncertainty, systemic risk and geopolitical threats. All of this should continue to keep the commodity well supported, with many market participants also fleeing to the hard asset as the grand dichotomy of record high equities and record low yields comes to an unnerving climax. Certainly the US Dollar under pressure in 2017 has added to the metal’s bid tone as well, but there is a growing sense that even in a scenario where the US Dollar is bid for an extended period, GOLD will hold up on risk off macro implications. Dealers are now reporting demand in size ahead of 1260.
Feature – technical overview
USDZAR has pushed back above a multi-week range that has capped gains in 2017. The clear break above 13.71 opens the door for additional upside towards the 2017 high from early January just shy of 14.00. From here, look for any setbacks to be well supported ahead of 13.16, with only a break back below 13.00 to compromise the constructive outlook.
Feature – fundamental overview
The Rand has been struggling of late, as ongoing tension on the political front prevents the emerging market currency from making any headway. The political mess has made the Rand one of the least attractive emerging market currencies out there at a time when risk correlated currencies are coming back under pressure on the reemergence of US Dollar demand from a more hawkish leaning Fed, solid US data and the revival of the Trump reflation trade. Last week’s SARB monetary policy report flagging scope for additional rate cuts on the basis of near zero growth and a negative output gap aren’t doing anything to help the Rand either. The only supportive theme at the moment is arguably the record run in US equities which is a positive for risk correlated markets. However even here the Rand should be sitting uneasy as the prospect for a capitulation is looking increasingly realistic with stocks going parabolic.