Daily FX Market Commentary

Andy Harrison

Andy Harrison

Good Morning,

 

LMAX Close

USDJPY 109.243 | EURUSD 1.10201 | AUDUSD 0.68588 | NZDUSD 0.63275 | USDCAD 1.32272 | USDCHF 0.99719 | GBPUSD 1.27756 |

 

LMAX highs and Lows 06.00 GMT

                                Highs | Lows

EURUSD               1.10249 | 1.10164

USDJPY                109.253 | 109.000

GBPUSD              1.27980 | 1.27863

USDCHF               0.99791 | 0.99674

AUDUSD             0.68612 | 0.68492

USDCAD              1.32330 | 1.32178

NZDUSD              0.63491 | 0.63287

EURCHF               1.09943 | 1.09851

EURGBP              0.86193 | 0.8610

EURJPY                120.419 | 120.163

For Today

  • GBP: Cable opened on a stronger footing just above the 1.2790 level and then did nothing special ranging around the opening areas through to the grey hour, a couple of attempts through to the 1.2786 areas before moving steadily through to the grey hour pushing towards the 1.2800 areas, Downside bids into the 1.2750 areas with likely stronger bids joining the congestive bids, a push through will see weak bids into the 1.2700 areas with stronger bids likely on any test of the 1.2650 areas with those bids likely to continue through to the 1.2630 areas, Topside offers light through to the 1.2900 some congestion around the level with the congestion light stops on a push through the 1.2920 level then further congestion likely to continue through to the 1.3000 areas and the stronger offers appear.
  • JPY: Opening unchanged the market moved through into the Tokyo session before really making a move and leaving the highs around the 109.25 area to test through in a few waves through to the 109.00 level before holding through into the grey hours, Topside offers 109.50 levels and increasing further on any push to the 110.00 level likely stronger stops on a push through the 110.20 areas before the market to 110.50 and stronger offers likely to appear in the area. Downside bids light back through the 108.00 areas with weak stops likely on a dip through the 107.80 area and congestion likely through the 107.50 level and continuing into growing bids in the 107.00 areas.
  • AUD: A very quiet session for the Oz with the market testing the 0.6860 level to make early highs before drifting through to test just below the 0.8650 and into the current bids before holding quietly above the level into the grey hours, Downside bids light through the 68 cents level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6780 level and opening the market to a limited move initially but renewing the downside potential through to the 0.6680-0.6700 level with weak stops likely on a dip through the 0.6670 level with congestive bids then likely to be patchy but centred around the sentimental 50/00 areas, Topside stronger offers likely through to the 0.6950 areas with limited resistance behind the 0.6960 level but increasing on any move towards the 70 cents level through to 0.7020 and stronger stops a possibility opening up further gains for the long term.
  • EUR: Limited movement for the Euro trading through to the Tokyo session moving towards the 1.1025 level before Tokyo opening and a dip through to the 1.1016 area to set the low, the market eventually lifted off those lows and pushed through to the grey hours testing the 1.1025 level to set the range. Downside congestion continues in the current area with the congestion likely to extend through to the 1.1000 areas with weak stops mixed with congestive bids on any dip through the 1.0980 area, and congestion then continuing through to the 109.50 area where stronger bids are likely to start appearing for any move through to the 1.0900 areas, Topside offers weak through to the 1.1100 areas with limited stops on a move through the area however, stronger congestion starts to appear on any push through to the 1.1150 areas and continuing through to the 1.1180 level and stronger offers then appearing on any test towards the 1.1200 level however, while there could be option barriers in the area stops above the level could be an attractive target.

 

Overnight News

NZD:

RBNZ to reveal Bank capital review decisions on Dec 5 – BBG

NZ Retail card spending unexpectedly fell in Oct – BBG

CNY:

China is likely to cap annual coal imports at 300m tons – BBG

EUR:

Hung parliament seen in Spain election with nearly 80% of votes counted – HAA

 

 

Today’s Data

Actual – A | Consensus – C | Previous – P | Revised R | all timings GMT/UTC

CNY        CPI YoY (OCT) A 3.8% | C 3.2% | P 3.0%

CNY        PPI YoY (OCT) A -1.6% | C -1.5% | P -1.2%

JPY         Bank Lending ex-trusts YoY (OCT) A 2.2% | P 2.2%

JPY         Bank Lending incl Trusts A 2.0% | P 2.0%

JPY         Machine Orders YoY (SEP) A 5.1% | C 8.1% | P -14.5%

JPY         Trade Balance- BOP Basis (YEN) A 1.1b | C 51.3b | P 50.9b

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey Current (OCT) A 36.7 | C 40.6 | P 46.7

JPY         Eco Watchers Survey outlook SA (OCT) A 43.7 | C 41.9 | P 36.9

CNY        New Yuan Loans CNY (OCT) C 800.0b | P 1690.0b

CNY        Aggregate Financing CNY (OCT) C 950.0b | P 2270.0b

JPY         Bankruptcies YoY (OCT) P 13.04%

NZD       REINZ House Sales YoY (OCT) P 3.3%

0930       GBP       GDP YoY (3Q P) C 1.1% | P 1.3%

0930       GBP        Construction Output YoY (SEP) C 0.8% | P 2.4%

0930       GBP       GDP QoQ (3Q P) C 0.4% | P -0.2%

0930       GBP       Industrial Production YoY (SEP) C -1.2% | P -1.8%

0930       GBP       Manufacturing Production YoY (SEP) C -1.6% | P -1.7%

0930       GBP       Monthly Gross Domestic Product MoM (SEP) C -0.1% | P -0.1%

0930       GBP       Trade Balance (SEP) C -2000m | P -1546m

0930       GBP       Trade Balance Non EU GBP/Mn (SEP) C -2500m | P -2206m

0930       GBP       Visible Trade Balance C -10100m | P -9806m

1200       MXN      Industrial Production NSA P -1.3%

 

 

Harry Hindsight

 

  • GBP: A tight range through deep into early morning in London with the market opening around the 1.2815 area and testing lightly above the 1.2825 areas in early trading to make the highs for the day before dipping back into the Tokyo session and basing around the 1.2810 level through to mid-morning in London with only minor penetrations of the 1.2810 areas through that period, London eventually tested the 1.2800 areas pushing lightly into the 1.2790 area before recovering through into the NYK session rising again to the 1.2820 areas before the market collapsed back through late into the session on the run to the London close quickly testing through to the 1.2770 area bouncing a little but unable to push through to the 1.2790 levels and drifting back to the lows again for the close.
  • JPY: Opening around the 109.30 level the market drifted through into Tokyo before stabbing higher to touch the 109.40 level in early trading however, the market then drifted from the level and tested through to the 109.15 area before finding some buyers and started a slow but steady rise through to the NYK session eventually breaking through to the 109.48 area on the open in NYK and then dipping back to hold the 109.30 areas before dropping quickly off through to the 109.10 area and the lows for the day holding the level the market managed a limited climb back to the 109.25 areas into the close.
  • AUD: A steady decline for the Oz dipping a little on the opening then testing to the highs of the day on the move into the Tokyo session testing the 0.6905 areas before dropping back on the move into Tokyo to range around the 0.6880 level through to the London session, with sellers pushing the market through to the 0.6860 areas and ranging through the balance of the session around the area testing as low as 0.6850 area before returning towards the 0.6860 for the close.
  • EUR: Holding through the Asian session around the opening 1.1050 area and ranging 5 pips either side of that mark through to deep into the London session before dropping through to the NYK session holding the 1.1030 areas with a limited range for a short period before dropping for the second time through to the 1.1020 areas and ranging there through to the close in quiet trading.

 

Yesterday’s Premiership results

JPY         Labour Cash Earnings YoY (SEP) A 0.8% | C 0.1% | P -0.2%

JPY         Overall Household spending YoY (SEP) A 9.5% | C 7.1% | P 1.0%

JPY         Real Cash Earnings YoY (SEP) A 0.6% | C -0.3 | P -0.6%

AUD       Home Loans MoM (SEP) A 3.6% | C 1.0% | P 2.0%

AUD       RBA Statement on Monetary Policy

CNY        Trade Balance A $42.81b | C $40.10b | P $39.65b

JPY         Coincident Index (SEP P) A 101.1 | C 101.0 | P 99.00

JPY         Leading Index CI (SEP P) A 92.2 | C 92.2 | P 91.9

GBP       UK Sovereign debt to be rated by Moody’s

CHF        Unemployment rate (OCT) A 2.2% | C 2.2% | P 2.1%

CHF        Unemployment Rate s.a. (OCT) A 2.3% | C 2.3% | P 2.3%

EUR        German Trade Balance (SEP) A 21.1b | C 18.8b | P 16.2b

CAD       Housing Starts (OCT) A 202.0k | C 222.5k | P 221.2k

CAD       Net Change in Employment (OCT) A -1.8k | C 10.0k | P 53.7k

CAD       Unemployment Rate (OCT) A 5.5% | C 5.5% | P 5.5%

CAD       Building Permits MoM (SEP) A -6.5% | C -1.8% | P 6.1%

CAD       Full Time Employment Change (OCT) A -16.1k | C 2.5k | P 70k

CAD       Hourly Wage Rate Permanent Employees YoY (OCT) A 4.4% | C 4.2% | P 4.3%

USD       U. of Mich Sentiment (NOV P) A 95.7 | C 95.5 | P 95.5

USD       Baker Hughes US Rig Count (NOV8) A 817 | P 822

 

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this Blog, whether by LMAX, its employees, partners or contributors, does not constitute investment advice nor has it been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the material contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. Whilst information provided on this Blog may help with your investment research you must consider carefully whether you should make (or refrain from making) investment or other decisions based on what you see without doing further research on the investments you are interested in. Participating in this Blog cannot be a substitute for obtaining advice from an appropriate expert independent adviser who takes into account your circumstances and specific investment needs in selected investments that are appropriate for you. LMAX has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

 

LMAX will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the material produced in this Blog was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources.

Consequently, any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk.

 

If you currently hold an account with LMAX for the purposes of trading FX and CFD’s, you are encouraged to use a different Username and Password to access the Blog or any other online systems. The Blog is a place to learn, discuss and share information and ideas with Blog followers. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information ("information") contained on this Blog, constitutes marketing communication and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Further, the information contained within this Blog does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) investment advice or an investment recommendation, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. LMAX Exchange has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any third parties as comments for every Blog entry.

LMAX Exchange will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. While the produced information was obtained from sources deemed to be reliable, LMAX Exchange does not provide any guarantees about the reliability of such sources. Consequently any person acting on it does so entirely at his or her own risk. It is not a place to slander, use unacceptable language or to promote LMAX Exchange or any other FX, Spread Betting and CFD provider and any such postings, excessive or unjust comments and attacks will not be allowed and will be removed from the site immediately.

LMAX Exchange will clearly identify and mark any content it publishes or that is approved by LMAX Exchange.

FX and CFDs are leveraged products that can result in losses exceeding your deposit. They are not suitable for everyone so please ensure you fully understand the risks involved. The information on this website is not directed at residents of the United States of America, Australia (we will only deal with Australian clients who are "wholesale clients" as defined under the Corporations Act 2001), Canada (although we may deal with Canadian residents who meet the "Permitted Client" criteria), Singapore or any other jurisdiction where FX trading and/or CFD trading is restricted or prohibited by local laws or regulations.